The changing situation in the Middle East and Chinese Policy
Niu Xinchun
June 25, 2021
Source: Global Times
The author is the director of the Middle East Institute of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations
On June 19, Iran officially announced that Justice Director Raisi won the presidential election, ending the moderate government that had been in power for eight years. On June 13, the “anti-Netanyahu coalition” successfully formed a government, ending Israel’s 12-year right-wing government. Since the beginning of the year, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have quietly adjusted their policies and made semi-open contacts with Iran. Coupled with the second withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Middle East this year, these scattered signs show that due to the cross-influence of domestic, regional and international factors, a historic war is brewing in the Middle East. changes, China’s role in the Middle East has attracted much attention.
Pay attention to four changes
In recent years, the four major factors that have long been immersed in Middle East politics, including Islamism, oil wealth, Israeli threats, and U.S. intervention, have all shown obvious changing trends, and the political landscape of the Middle East may undergo major adjustments.
Arab-Israeli relations are a fundamental contradiction in the Middle East. Four Arab-Israeli wars occurred in the last century, which established the basic geographical pattern of the Middle East. At the end of 2020, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan have successively normalized relations with Israel. It is inevitable that more Arab countries will establish diplomatic relations with Israel in the future. Changes in Arab-Israeli relations will free up more space for the restructuring of international relations in the Middle East.
Islam is the gene of Arab society and has long-term influence on the political, economic and social structure of the Middle East. The period from 1970 to 2010 was a period of rising political Islamism in the Middle East. However, after the “Arab Spring”, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood came to power in 2012 and collapsed in 2013.
Tunisia’s “Ennahda” came to power in 2011 and lost its ruling position in 2014; terrorist organizations The “Islamic State” declared its “statehood” in 2014 and collapsed in 2019. None of the moderate Islamic parties achieved the expected results in governance, which severely damaged public confidence in Islamic parties. The “Islamic State” actually commits terrorism in the name of Islam, which has also damaged the reputation of political Islam. The decline of Islamism may free political and economic reforms in Arab countries from a heavy historical baggage.
Over the past 100 years, the fate of the Middle East has been closely linked to oil. In recent years, with the continuous advancement of the international energy revolution, the strategic importance of oil has weakened. The proportion of oil in global energy consumption continues to decline, and the importance of Middle Eastern oil in the global oil market is also less than before. For the Middle East, the pressure for real and comprehensive reform has increased sharply.
Since World War II, the United States has been the most powerful external intervention force in the Middle East. In 2011, marked by the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, the United States entered a period of strategic contraction in the Middle East. Relevant parties took action upon hearing this. In 2015, Russia jumped into the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Iran, and Israel also took the lead. The retrenchment of U.S. strategy may overturn the old regional balance of power, and restoring balance is often fraught with risks and turmoil.
Four major changes resonate at the same frequency. This may be an era of great chaos, an era of great change, or both. This is both a challenge and an opportunity. Compared with the major changes in the Middle East in history, after the influence of the United States, Israel, religion, and oil declines, the fate of this change will be determined to a greater extent by the countries and people of the region.
Be wary of two traps
The Middle East is known as the “graveyard of great powers”. Greece, Rome, Ottoman, Britain, France, the Soviet Union and the United States have all experienced similar ebbs and flows here. Although the reasons for the fall of major powers are complex and diverse, the view of the Middle East as a stage or tool for great power competition and the excessive militarization of the Middle East policy are two common features worthy of attention. China must be highly vigilant about this.
China and the United States have no fundamental conflict of interest in the Middle East. Game play between China and the United States in the Middle East should be avoided or delayed as much as possible. As Sino-U.S. relations have deteriorated in recent years, some people in the United States believe that China is heavily dependent on energy from the Middle East, so the Middle East is an ideal place for the United States to get stuck in China’s neck. The global confrontation between China and the United States is not in China’s interests, and the confrontation between China and the United States in the Middle East is even less in line with China’s interests, because the United States has more prominent overall advantages in the Middle East. Faced with all kinds of noise and provocations, China cannot follow the rhythm of the United States.
China is the only country among the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council that does not station troops in the Middle East. Therefore, it is also the major country with the smallest military footprint in the Middle East. Some people believe that due to military shortcomings, China’s Middle East policy is incomplete and unbalanced. To protect China’s interests, China needs a military presence in the Middle East. However, historical experience shows that the military presence of major powers is one of the sources of turmoil in the Middle East and is a part of the Middle East problem, not the solution to the Middle East problem. Today, what Americans reflect on most about their Middle East policy is “excessive military involvement.”
Focus on three tasks
Since the end of the Cold War, China has not been deeply involved in Middle East affairs. Now, as China’s influence increases and the situation in the Middle East has an expanded impact on China, it is natural for China to play a greater constructive role in the Middle East.
First, help the Middle East build its own regional security mechanism. The Middle East is the only region in the world that does not have any regional security mechanism. The United States has long been the center of the Middle East security mechanism. The security of various countries largely depends on the closeness of their relations with the United States. As the strategic contraction of the United States continues to advance, the necessity and feasibility of building a regional security mechanism have increased. The improvement of Arab-Israeli relations, the resumption of contacts between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and the resumption of talks on the Iran nuclear deal are all positive signals. Since the end of 2019, Russia, China and the United States have successively proposed initiatives to build a multilateral dialogue platform in the Gulf region, indicating that the consensus of the international community is growing. While finding peace in the Middle East is never easy, it is a worthwhile endeavor.
Secondly, on the basis of equality and mutual benefit, we will assist the political, economic and social reforms of Arab countries. The “Arab Spring” failed and “Islamism” receded, but the difficulties faced by Arab countries have not disappeared. Countries still need to continue to explore development paths suitable for their own national conditions. The “oil economy” is no longer in glory, and the necessity and urgency of economic reform have suddenly increased. Over the past 40 years, China has accumulated rich experience in the field of reform and development. In the future, China and Afghanistan not only need to continue to strengthen economic cooperation, but also can communicate with each other, learn from their respective governance experiences, and support each other in pursuing their respective reform and development paths.
Third, jointly oppose hegemonism and make the Middle East truly a Middle East for the Middle Eastern people. In the long history of the Middle East, foreign intervention has always been one of the sources of turmoil and suffering. Now, as the U.S. Middle East strategy continues to shrink, New York Times columnist Friedman asserts that the era in which major powers determine the fate of the Middle East is over. However, the haze of hegemonism has not dissipated. The United States still criticizes the human rights situation, political systems and economic structures of Middle Eastern countries, and arbitrarily lists the government agencies of Middle Eastern countries as “terrorist organizations.” Opposing these practices is not only conducive to peace and stability in the Middle East, but also in line with China’s international political interests.
The author is the director of the Middle East Institute of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.