China-Soviet 5: The Collapse of China-Russia Alliance Theory

Guangming Daily

September 2024

In recent days, (September 12)  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Russia and was cordially received by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Wang Yi attended the meeting of BRICS high-ranking security officials and national security advisers on Wednesday and Thursday in the city of St Petersburg. Putin said that the relationship between China and Russia has reached an “unprecedented” level, and made it clear that there is no intention to form a military alliance. In the past, Russian officials have repeatedly sent out signals that they want to form an alliance with China and tie the two countries together. Judging from Putin’s statement this time, the Russian side really understood what China’s signal of “non-alignment, non-confrontation” really means. However, when facing the imperialist policy of the United States, alliance seems to be a good choice, so why does China advocate “non-alignment”? What kind of cooperative relationship has been formed between China and Russia at present?

We all know that China has always pursued an independent and peaceful foreign policy, has not engaged in camp confrontation, and has adhered to the principle of international exchanges of partnership but not alliance. Because of this, the friendship between China and Russia has developed rapidly, and the exchanges and cooperation between the two countries have increased. However, there has always been a saying in Russia that Russia and China should “ally”. As early as the Crimean crisis in 2014, Russia had more or less gave hints to China to take the path of alliance. After the Crimean crisis, Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia, implementing a strategy of exclusion and isolation. Russia gradually fell out with Europe, and its presence in Europe’s natural gas and oil markets also gradually collapsed. So, as a major energy exporter and trader, who else could Russia cooperate with?

Putin has started the “Look East” mode, and China and Russia have reached many orders for natural gas and oil, as well as joint infrastructure projects. The two countries need each other and rely on each other under pressure from the United States and other Western countries. The friendship between China and Russia is developing vigorously. By 2022, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused Russia to be in trouble both internally and externally. Germany cut off the Nord Stream pipeline project, Europe and Russia relations were almost completely ended in terms of energy and finance, the East-West confrontation became fierce, and regional conflicts were triggered. In addition, Pacific countries like Australia always follow the United States and impose sanctions on Russia. The only major country that has always been firm and has carried out various cooperation and frequent economic exchanges with Russia is China. It is precisely this situation that has made the Chairman of the Russian Defense Committee Bondarev obsessed with “alliance” and even called out to China internationally: China and Russia must get closer, and it would be best if they could form an “alliance”. In this way, the two countries will not have to fear any obstacles. In addition, Bondarev emphasized that after the alliance between China and Russia, the world will present a completely new situation. On one side is the camp composed of Western countries, and on the other side is the China-Russia alliance. This alliance has a vast territory, a large population and abundant resources, and will become a military force that cannot be underestimated.

Russia’s attitude was originally ambiguous, and various Western media saw the close relationship between China and Russia and began to hype up the “alliance theory” between the two countries. The Financial Times of the United Kingdom even warned the United States to be careful of an “anti-Western” or a “China-Russia alliance” without any basis, The Financial Times tries to confuse the international public opinion. No matter how scary the fake news is, it will never come true. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized at a press conference that China and Russia are each other’s most important neighbors and strategic partners, and the relationship between the two sides is based on “non-alignment, non-confrontation, and non-targeting third parties.” It is not only a signal to Western countries, but this talk by Wang Yi was a signal to Russia that China and Russia have always lived in harmony, but historical experience has made China and Russia understand that we will never become “allies.”

Putin Made His Final Choice

On August 20, Wang Yi received an invitation from the Russian side to visit Russia and went to Russia to attend the 18th round of strategic security consultations. During this meeting, Russian President Putin personally met with Foreign Minister Wang Yi. From their cordial expressions, it can be seen that Putin was particularly looking forward to this meeting. Putin once again emphasized the relationship between China and Russia in his speech at the Eastern Economic Forum half a month ago:

Putin said “the two countries are not allies, but this does not affect the relationship between the two countries reaching the highest level in history. China and Russia will not form a military alliance in the future. Our two countries live in harmony for the benefit of the people of both countries, and this friendly relationship is not directed against any other country”.

It has to be said that Putin’s statement is exactly in line with the “three no principles” proposed by China, which are “no alliance”, “no confrontation” and “no targeting third parties”. The fact that Putin agreed with it and said it at a high-level meeting shows that Putin has agreed China’s diplomatic principles and has seen the future direction of China-Russia development. With Putin’s attitude, Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit was smooth. It must be said that during this visit to Russia, Putin wanted to see China’s reaction, and China also wanted to make clear Putin’s thoughts. When the two sides met, they had the same ideas, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi made his point clear in Moscow. When Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, they exchanged ideas with each other and then declared to China, Russia and the world: “China and Russia will always pursue an independent and peaceful foreign policy, and China and Russia’s diplomacy and cooperation will not be influenced or dominated by other countries”. In addition, Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed with the Russian side the cooperation in military, science and technology, economy and trade, which was equivalent to giving Russia a “reassurance pill”. Although it is not an alliance, the two sides can have more in-depth and multi-field exchanges without limits.

When the United States and other Western countries engage in imperialism, although China and Russia are not allies, they can still work together to crack down on these hegemonic countries like the United States and contribute to making the world a more peaceful place. From the results of the meeting, both China and Russia are very satisfied with each other. Russia recognizes China’s diplomatic principles, and China has created more development opportunities for Russia. In this way, China and Russia will carry out more exchanges in the fields of economy, trade, culture and other aspects, and Russia’s development of the Far East project is one of them.

Why China and Russia won’t form an alliance?

In the past, China and Russia had “formed an alliance” before, but it was only after the alliance that China realized that such an alliance relationship was not suitable for China’s development. As early as when the People’s Republic of China was just founded, China and Russia signed the “China-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance” and stood together in an alliance relationship. However, after the alliance was established, the Soviet Union interfered in China’s internal affairs, and the two countries had great differences of opinion, which caused Sino-Soviet relations to deteriorate rapidly and eventually reached the point of going to war. With such lessons, China has gained a lot of lessons and is even less willing to repeat the same mistakes. If China and Russia form an alliance, it seems that they can have great cooperation in military and technology and achieve certain benefits from this, but at the same time, this alliance will also impose a constraint on China and Russia. This kind of alliance will be exclusive and target some forces, and it will be of no benefit in resolving regional conflicts. In addition, China’s foreign policy will be greatly interfered with and influenced. If China and Russia form an alliance, China will definitely be involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and will have to choose sides and suffer more problems with European countries. For China, which is trying to develop China-Europe trade, doing so is too costly from the economic aspect.

In the final analysis, whether to ally or not is a choice made according to the times. During the Cold War, the confrontation between the camps was particularly sharp, and the two huge superpowers competed with each other, forcing many countries to choose to ally with one side in order to survive and protect themselves. Today, the Cold War has been gradually replaced by cooperation. For most countries in the world, it is even more necessary to develop themselves in a peaceful environment, make friends with more countries, and carry out multi-faceted cooperation. China is following the trend of history and no longer uses the old “alliance” method. Although the United States has been pulling European countries to deter and sanction China and Russia, times are different now. Although China and Russia are slightly weaker than Western countries in strength, they have no problem protecting themselves and their domestic defense capabilities are sufficient. The United States and other Western countries cannot dare to act recklessly. This will be a great adventure for them.

China and Russia can withstand the US’s coercive policy as long as they work together, without forming an alliance. If the US forcibly intervenes in local issues, China and Russia will increase cooperation and work together to curb the US’s arrogant behavior. Moreover, China and Russia do not have exactly the same views and positions on some major regional issues. If they form an alliance hastily, it would be easy for the United States to seize the weaknesses of this alliance, thus China and Russia will be restrained everywhere, ultimately ending up in a bad mood.

Finally, China has clear tactics, that is, China is not anti-American, nor anti-Western, just like the foreign minister said: “we are not targeting any third party.” Although the competition between China and the United States is particularly fierce, exchanges and cooperation have never stopped. China firmly opposes the imperialism and hegemony and camp confrontation of the United States and Western countries, and we oppose the containment policy that goes against the trend of globalization. Exchange and dialogue have always been the main aspects of the relationship between United States and China.

The Western media’s wanton promotion of the “China-Russia threat theory” or “China-Russia alliance” is purely malicious and wants to provoke camp confrontation. China will never go back on its history and will never become a member of a certain camp. We will not ally with Russia, nor with any other country in the world. It is a blessing for China and the world for China and Russia to jointly establish a new type of major power relationship based on win-win cooperation and have friendly exchanges with more countries around the world.