Syria: The Rapid fall of the Assad Regime may be the last Attempt that Can Force Tehran to Reform
Turkiye is One of the Biggest Beneficiaries of the Current Situation in Syria
Fan Hongda, January 2025
Professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies, Shanghai International Studies University
Editor’s note: In 2024, the situation in the Middle East has undergone profound changes. From the regional strategic confrontation between Iran and Israel, to Israel’s large-scale ground military operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which was led by a pager assassination, to the major changes in the Syrian political situation that led to the reorganization of the regional power structure, the situation in the Middle East has continued to attract global attention over the past year. In the new year 2025, China’s Observer.com media outlet talked with Professor Fan Hongda, and asked him to summarize and analyze the current chaos in the Middle East and look forward to development trends in 2025.
Observer: This year, wars have continued in the Middle East, from Palestine to Lebanon and Syria, and the situation is becoming increasingly unclear. So let’s start with the flashpoints of this round of war, Palestine and Israel, and first discuss about Hamas. This round of war has destroyed a lot of the power that Hamas has accumulated over the years. Even former Hamas leaders Sinwar and Haniyeh died at the hands of Israel. With the situation in Syria changing and Iran having no time to pay attention to Hamas, where will Hamas go in the future? Will it abandon the resistance axis and seek to re-start cooperation with the Muslim Brotherhood?
Fan Hongda: The October 7, 2023 incident was a huge blow to Hamas. I judged at the time that Hamas would be completely destroyed. In the past year or so, Hamas’s military force has been almost completely wiped out. Under such circumstances, its political influence has also declined significantly, and it will be difficult to revive. Israel’s goal is obviously to completely destroy Hamas. It will not allow Hamas to continue to wage guerrilla warfare in Gaza City. Israel is very eager to eliminate both the military threat and political influence of Hamas. I think Israel will try to build a Gaza Strip without Hamas.
In addition, other political factions within Palestine, especially Fatah, are also worried that the revival of Hamas will threaten its dominant position in Palestine. Therefore, other Palestinian political forces are unlikely to support the revival of Hamas, and may even be inclined to support Israel’s actions to completely weaken or even destroy Hamas. In terms of cooperation with the Muslim Brotherhood, the Sisi regime in Egypt strongly opposes the Muslim Brotherhood and sees it as a threat. Considering the Egyptian government’s tough stance and its negative attitude towards Hamas, although Hamas once had contact with the Muslim Brotherhood, it is almost impossible to restore relations in the current political context.
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