Populism: Populist Political Thought in World Politics in the 21st Century (2008-2025)
January 2024
Author: Lin Hong is a professor at the School of International Relations, Renmin University of China
In the turbulent changes of world politics today, populism has become a radical force for change due to its extraordinary influence. In the beginning, people were shocked by the sudden rise of a deconstructive force against globalization from events such as Trump’s election and the Brexit referendum. Then they found that populism quickly rebounded and spread around the world through multiple paths such as political thoughts, social movements and party politics, showing a strong intention and huge energy to reorganize the political order and reset power relations. After 2020, populism seems to show some signs of fading and silencing. Analyzing populist thoughts and their changes to the world today will help us understand where the complexity and uncertainty of modern politics come from.
Populism as a political ideology
Populism is a modern political phenomenon with a simple connotation, clear goals and diverse forms. In the more than 150 years since its emergence, populism has never been far away from the human political stage, whether as a political trend, or as a political movement or political strategy.
As the only radical political trend that appeals to and seeks help from the masses, populism has set off four waves in history. In the second half of the 19th century, the Russian populist movement and the American People’s Party movement opened the curtain for populism to break into world politics. And from the 1940s to the 1960s, Latin American populism not only left a profound populist gene in the development of Latin American politics, but also established the overall left-wing tendency of Latin American politics; from the 1980s to the 1990s, the populist movement in East Asia and Southeast Asia, as a product of the third wave of democratization, became a classic experience of modernization transformation in non-Western countries.
After entering the 21st century, especially since the 2008 financial crisis, populist thought has fully revived in Europe and the United States and swept the world, showing a polarized trend of left and right wings. However, due to the serious economic inequality and identity crisis caused by economic globalization, the liberal democratic system is in deep trouble, and extreme conservative right-wing populism has become an increasingly powerful force.
Faced with the ups and downs of populism, people have enough motivation and interest to observe and study it. The interest of Western academia in the study of populism began in the 1960s. At that time, scholars were keen on defining the concept and typological analysis of populism, but they never reached a consensus on what populism is. In the 1990s, the rise of new populism in Europe triggered the initial vigilance of liberal scholars about the crisis of liberal democracy, which was further strengthened when economic globalization encountered a major countercurrent in the early 21st century. During the heyday of populism from 2008 to 2016, people began to reflect on the roots of the re-emergence of this anti-establishment force in the West. In the 2020s, when the initial passion gradually subsided, the long-term impact of populism and its prevention became a new research focus.
If we summarize the relevant research on populism since the 20th century, although differences and disagreements have always existed, people’s understanding of populism has become clearer and clearer, and the general consensus has become more and more sufficient. Since the latest wave of populism has mainly occurred in Europe and the United States, the research results focus on Western populism and mainly answer the following questions.
First, how to define populism?
Representative viewpoints include Margaret Canovan’s “shadow theory” (a shadow cast by democracy itself), Benjamin Arditi’s “ghost theory” (a “ghost” that appears and disappears in democratic politics, sometimes strong and sometimes weak), Cass Mudd’s “thin ideology theory” (a “thin ideology” based on the opposition between pure masses and corrupt elites), and Paul Taggart’s “heartland theory” (a kind of help and belief in the people as the source of legitimacy). In general, existing research provides two explanatory frameworks: one emphasizes the value of populism, which takes the people as the essence and is the people-first doctrine derived from the theory of popular sovereignty; the other emphasizes the instrumentality of populism, which is a political strategy carefully planned by political elites to attract the people for followers and dependence.
Second, how to identify populism?
As a highly recognizable radical trend of thought, populism exhibits typical characteristics of anti-institutionalism, authoritarianism, and nativism.
First, populism believes that the masses represent wisdom and virtue, and populism is skeptical and rebellious toward the current authority and the current system, actively promoting two “mass rebellions,” namely, civilians against elites and the people of the country against foreign immigrants.
Secondly, populism relies heavily on state authority or leader authority to realize the ideal of mass democracy, and has extremely high expectations for state intervention and strongman politics. Authoritarian populism is equated with right-wing populism.
Thirdly, populism advocates nativist values, misses traditional values, and defends national culture. Its discourse mobilization is full of beliefs such as national interests first, foreigners and foreign cultures are destructive forces, and opposes liberal political correctness and multiculturalism.
Third, why has populism resurrected?
Before the 1980s, Western populism was dormant. After the start of neoliberal economic globalization, international capitalism with capital worship, market supremacy, and state withdrawal from economy and social life caused various conflicts of interest and political dissatisfaction. Populism waited for an opportunity to reappear, and with its highly mobilizing people-first and grassroots political logic, it resonated with a large number of globalization loser masses.
There are three reasons for the revival of populism.
Economically, globalization has caused serious economic inequality. With the decline of manufacturing, the erosion of labor organizations, and the shrinking of the welfare safety net, the middle class and low-income groups are strongly dissatisfied. The outbreak of the “Occupy Wall Street” movement and the rise of European left-wing populist parties are examples.
Culturally, multiculturalism and post-materialist values have caused identity anxiety among the new middle class. They confidently support the cultural stance of anti-globalization, anti-immigration, and anti-political correctness. White identity politics with racist backgrounds began to prevail.
The Tea Party movement, Trump’s rise to power, Brexit, and European right-wing populist parties have successively launched attacks on establishment politics. Politically, the democratic deficit has led to political alienation and dissatisfaction. Mainstream political parties are facing a crisis of representation and a weakening social base. Because liberal democracy cannot truly represent the general public opinion and cannot guarantee mass political participation, Euroscepticism in Europe and anti-establishment politics in the United States have gained a large number of supporters.
Today Populism Has Merged with Nationalism
Early studies on populism rarely discussed it in the ideological spectrum of the left and right, because populism in history was generally regarded as a left-wing political trend. Although the American People’s Party movement has some right-wing tendencies of xenophobia, it was essentially a farmer movement with left-wing class political characteristics; the main tone of Russian populism, Latin American populism and Asian populism was also left-wing, which is directly related to class conflicts and economic struggles in the process of modernization transformation.
However, Western populist thought in the 21st century has shown a very obvious left-right differentiation phenomenon. Among them, left-wing populism is connected with democratic socialism, emphasizing distributive justice and equality of results, and advocating redistribution and anti-austerity in policies. Today’s right-wing populism merges with nationalism, holds a localist cultural conservative stance, focuses on identity and national interests, and aims at anti-immigration, trade protection, and national priority in policies.
However, the left-right divide in today’s Western populism is not balanced, with the right being strong and the left being weak. Left-wing populism is less influential and has a limited scope of influence due to the decline of the working class, due to weak trade unions and the decline of class politics. In contrast, right-wing populism, which holds an extremely conservative stance, is powerful and far-reaching, especially its confluence with nationalism has created a strong position for right-wing populism.
Theoretically, there is a huge space for dialogue between populism and nationalism. Both are modern radical thoughts that are sufficient to trigger changes in power and order. Populism emphasizes the decisive position of pursuing people’s sovereignty within the country, while nationalism emphasizes the exclusive possession of national sovereignty outside the country.
The “people” of populism in the political and legal sense and the “nation” of nationalism in the historical and cultural sense are connected under the national framework. At the same time, as globalization has promoted the increasing interweaving of domestic politics and world politics, the vertical mobilization structure of populism based on class confrontation and the horizontal mobilization structure of nationalism based on ethnic division have been linked, which ultimately led to the theoretical confluence of populism and nationalism, and the emergence of the so-called national populism or populist nationalism extreme right-wing ideology.
From a practical point of view, there is a wealth of historical experience in the confluence of populism and nationalism. For example, in the early practice of populism, the Russian populists inherited the village community concept with Russian national characteristics from the Slavophiles, and the American People’s Party developed white nationalism with xenophobia, anti-Semitism and racial segregation in the Anglo-Saxon tradition. Latin America, which has rich experience in populism, has turned to anti-American and anti-Western economic nationalism in order to get rid of dependent development and safeguard resource sovereignty. The wave of populism in Europe and the United States in the 21st century is a byproduct of economic globalization. The anti-immigration and anti-globalization movement of the white mainstream community was launched under the banner of national populism. These historical connections show that there is no so-called “internationalist populist”. Although not all nationalists hold populist positions, all populists have their nationalist positions.
Right-wing populism is the ideological root of the increasing conservatism of Western politics today. In this political trend, nationalism is not a new coat of populism, but the rich connotation it has acquired in this era. Although populism has a thin connotation, it has obtained ideological resources from nationalism that can strengthen its political mobilization. Therefore, populism and nationalism have jointly created the strong position of right-wing populism and formed an authoritarian, exclusive and extremely conservative ideology. Cas Mudde believes that the current situation of the confluence of populism and nationalism is difficult to change in the short term, and may even become more intense. In recent years, the political reality of Europe and the United States has shown that the confluence with nationalism has enhanced populism’s ability to change and reset the existing political order and power structure, leading to serious consensus breakdown and political polarization.
From domestic politics to world politics: the spillover effects of populism
Populism is first and foremost a change of thought that occurs within a country. It is formed out of dissatisfaction with the domestic establishment and its political and economic order. As a political trend, populism will trigger anti-establishment politics on an unprecedented scale, causing a major impact on domestic power relations, institutional structures and value systems. However, populism often transcends national boundaries and has a global impact because it can spill over beyond the country through the spread of ideas, movement demonstrations and policy adjustments. John Judis believes that populism was created in the United States. It runs through American history, was later transplanted into European soil, and also had an important impact on Latin America.
In fact, since its first appearance on the political stage, populism has become an ideological link between domestic politics and world politics. Anti-modernist Russian and American populism represents the interests of the peasant/farmer class, opposes the economic exploitation by capitalism and monopoly capitalists, and prepares the social foundation for the global spread of socialism and democracy.
Anti-Westernization Latin American populism was committed to breaking away from dependence on the central imperialist country, questioning the applicability of Western developmentalism, and advocating the exploration of Latin America’s independent development path. Populism in East Asia and Southeast Asia was a byproduct of democratic transformation, but ultimately led to a turbulent political order and chaotic democratic practice due to excessive mass political participation. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the resurgence of populism in the West was closely related to the severe questioning of economic globalization, namely, neoliberalism ignores distributive justice within the country and in the global society, and fails to protect traditional values and national interests. Although this wave of populism first broke out at the domestic political level, the political and economic roots of its revival are global. Therefore, populism in various countries that occurs in the same context and in the same way together constitutes a new world political landscape. Western countries cater to the demands of populism through increasingly conservative domestic and foreign policies, which ultimately led to the retreat of neoliberal globalization.
Although the impact of populism has not led to the fundamental disintegration of the European Union, and has not yet caused the complete collapse of Western mainstream values and systems, Euroscepticism and anti-establishment politics have obviously dealt a heavy blow to mainstream politics in the United States and Europe, and the intensification of social divisions and political polarization has undermined the relative stability of Western politics. With the deep confluence of populism and nationalism, right-wing populism will continue to impact the Western political order based on liberal democratic values. The conflicts between globalism and nationalism, between liberalism and conservatism, and between pluralism and localism hinder the realization and maintenance of political consensus.
The basic order of human political development has never been constant. Since the 20th century, the diachronic changes in world politics have been reflected in the continuous process of modernization, democratization and even globalization. This process is guided by Western, modern and capitalist values, and its structure is generally determined by economic developmentalism, political liberalism and cultural pluralism. However, due to the uneven development of modern capitalism and the limitations of the liberal democratic system, political resistance to capitalism and liberalism has emerged in the West. In its one and a half century of turbulent history, populism has always been a deconstructive anti-establishment force. It takes the interests of the masses, the nation and the country as its basic appeal, and opposes capitalism, liberalism and globalization. Populism connects domestic politics and world politics in a fierce and even extreme way, pointing to a political future full of uncertainty.
Where to go from here: The rise and fall of populism
Every political trend has its ups and downs. The surge of populism and the extremism that shocked the world have their own ups and downs. The heyday of Western populism in the early 21st century was roughly around 2016. The 2008 financial crisis triggered populist left-wing and right-wing trends represented by the Tea Party movement and the “Occupy Wall Street” movement. European right-wing populist parties also stepped onto the political stage. Trump’s election as US president in 2016 and the Brexit referendum in the UK were the peak moments of right-wing populism. With Trump’s defeat in the general election and the basic completion of the Brexit process in the UK, the fierce attack of populism on establishment politics has come to an end.
However, populism has not left the stage. The influence of right-wing populist parties in Europe, such as the French National Rally and the German Alternative for Germany, in elections and parliaments continues to rise. All kinds of realities and prospects indicate that populism is always present. For the Western establishment and liberals, populism is a destructive force, and severing and eliminating populism is their political goal.
However, since its formation in the second half of the 19th century, populist thought has never disappeared worldwide. Paul Taggart believes that populism is an intermittent political episode.
Populism may fade away, but it can always burst out with strong potential for radical political change from time to time, because where there is surging public opinion, there are populist political thoughts and political movements that express political dissatisfaction. Judging from the experience of the United States, since the People’s Party movement in the late 19th century, American populism has not been vacant for a long time, but a large-scale and influential populist movement has appeared almost every thirty years or so.
For example, after the Populist movement in 1892, there was Huey Long’s “Common Wealth Plan” in the 1930s, George Wallace’s populist electoral mobilization in the 1960s, Ross Perot’s third-party movement in the 1990s, and the right-wing populist wave set off by Trump in 2016. It can be seen that populism’s interference and influence on the existing political order is long-term and continuous. In fact, populism in the 21st century is not just a political episode as Taggart said. It has become a component and regular content of Western politics, and even the political mainstream of contemporary Western countries.
Populism and other conservative thoughts have profoundly changed the power structure and organizational mode of domestic and world politics. For example, in Europe, under the influence of the electoral mechanism, party politics has seen a so-called “two-way movement” of mainstream populist parties and populist mainstream parties.
On the one hand, the electoral support rate of right-wing populist parties has continued to rise. Populist parties in many countries such as Italy and Austria have successively achieved the transformation from “marginal to ruling position”.
Populist parties such as the Le Pen’s French National Rally and the German Alternative Party (AFD) have partially revised their extremist image and begun to advance into the mainstream party camp.
On the other hand, the mainstream parties of the center-left and center-right have to adjust their election strategies due to the decline of party representativeness and the loosening of voter base, absorb the political issues of right-wing populism and imitate their mobilization strategies. In order to cater to the extreme right voters in the 2012 French presidential election, Sarkozy even claimed that he would transform his party into a “lightweight National Front”.
Populism is an extreme conservative trend in contemporary Western politics
After experiencing rapid expansion from 2008 to 2016, it has entered a period of slow development. Whether there will be a new climax in the future depends, in a sense, on the degree of social consensus and the level of national governance in the West. If social divisions intensify, political polarization is unsolvable, and economic growth is weak, populism, as a response to governance failure, will inevitably make a comeback under the stimulation of specific events.
Since the financial crisis, the liberal political camp has been highly nervous about the revival of populism, hoping to strengthen the value and institutional foundations of liberal democracy through reflection and revision, and even wants to completely get rid of the nightmare of populism.
However, populism has become an important component of Western politics and a new variable that has a lasting impact on national governance. The Western establishment’s expectation of eliminating populism is undoubtedly unrealistic. In fact, the Western establishment will have to consider such a long-term strategy, that is, how to rebuild value consensus and achieve high-quality national governance while having to coexist with populism.