Hungary: What is the Secret Behind Victor Orban’s Fidesz Party’s Long Term Rule (2010-2025): Historical Soil and Realistic Choices
Estimations for the Future Development of Hungarian Party Politics
Translator: Eşref Kartal
Author Ju Weiwei, is the Director and Associate Researcher of the Central and Eastern European Research Office attached to Institute of European Studies, Beijing
From the Journal of Contemporary World, December 2024
Summary
Modern party politics emerged in Hungary as early as the mid-19th century. After a long and tortuous development, Hungarian party politics has been characterized by the long-term dominance of Fidesz since 2010.
Historically, Hungarian party politics has been influenced not only by diverse political and social trends but also by both internal traditions and external forces. Fidesz’s ideology is rooted in Hungary’s historical traditions and meets the country’s current needs. Fidesz‘s unique governing philosophy, emphasis on internal party development, and efforts to forge a European and American right-wing alliance have yielded strong results, attracting the support of a broad base of middle and lower-class voters. This is the primary reason for Fidesz’s rise and long-term rule. Against the backdrop of a rightward shift in European and American party politics, Hungary’s “strong right, weak left” party structure will not change in the short term. Fidesz will continue to be less extreme and less populist, while opposition parties will further strengthen their coalition efforts and policy convergence. Competition among Hungarian parties will also increasingly involve international factors.
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In Hungarian politics, the Young Democrats (Fidesz) have maintained high support and long-term governance. Fidesz’s ideologies and policies have sparked significant controversy in Europe, sparking discussions about “Hungary’s re-transformation” and the “right-wing populism” of Hungarian politics.
Research on Fidesz’s long-term governance requires not only an exploration of historical factors within Hungary’s political development but also a review of the current causes, including its guiding ideology, domestic and foreign policies, governance outcomes, and the overall political landscape in Europe. Hungary’s history of party politics and national development has fostered the conservatism and nationalism of Fidesz’s strategic guiding ideology. The fundamental reason for Fidesz’s rise and long-term governance lies in its effective policies and practices, grounded in a deep understanding of national history and traditions and reflecting on the lessons of post-Cold War national transformation.
On the evening of June 9, 2024, voting concluded for the 10th European Parliament election. The ruling coalition led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (Fidesz and the Christian Democratic Party) secured a 43.76% lead.
The Historical Evolution and Characteristics of Hungarian Party Politics
Hungarian party politics has a long history. In the process of Hungarian national awakening, national independence, political reform and social transformation, political parties have played a significant role, leaving a deep historical imprint on the development of contemporary Hungarian politics.
As early as the mid-19th century, against the backdrop of Hungarian national awakening and bourgeois reform movements, political parties in the modern sense were established. In March 1848, the Hungarian bourgeois revolution for national independence broke out. In April, Hungary enacted and implemented new parliamentary election laws, transforming the old feudal parliament into a democratic representative parliament. Several bourgeois parties were established to promote political and social reforms aimed at achieving national autonomy and modernization, thus beginning the process of modern Hungarian party politics. Following the establishment of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1867, Hungary won an independent parliament and political parties, represented by the Liberal Party, the Independent Party, and the Peasant Party. These parties were heavily influenced by nationalism and the independence movement, centered on national identity and the pursuit of autonomy, laying the political foundation for Hungary’s subsequent national independence.
After the end of World War I, Hungary became independent, facing severe internal and external challenges. In 1919, a proletarian revolution erupted in Hungary, establishing the Communist-led Hungarian Soviet Republic. This regime lasted only 133 days before it was overthrown by reactionary forces led by Miklós Horthy, marking the beginning of Horthy’s 25-year military dictatorship. In 1945, the Soviet Union liberated Hungary, which then fell within the Soviet sphere of influence and began its transition to socialism. In 1949, the Hungarian People’s Republic was established, with the Hungarian Socialist Workers’ Party in power. From being part of an empire to a brief attempt at communism, from fascist rule to embarking on the socialist path after World War II, Hungary’s ruling parties during the socialist period also attempted to break free from Soviet control, reflecting the historical process of Hungarian political parties seeking an independent path of development within a turbulent international environment.
Following the dramatic changes in Eastern Europe, at the end of 1980s, Hungary transitioned from a one-party system to a multi-party system, with a diverse political landscape encompassing conservatives, liberals, and social democrats.
Socialist Party
By the early 21st century, the political transition was largely complete, with Hungary experiencing a pattern of alternating left-wing and right-wing parties, represented by the Socialist Party and Fidesz. In October 1989, the Socialist Workers’ Party was renamed the Socialist Party, winning its first general election and seizing power in 1994.
Fidesz Coalition and Viktor Orbán
Fidesz, founded in 1988, initially maintained a liberal stance, but later shifted towards conservatism and nationalism, further strengthening its right-wing character. In 1998, Fidesz, along with two other small parties, won its first parliamentary election, with party chairman Viktor Orbán becoming prime minister. Due to a lack of governing experience and a split in the ruling coalition, Fidesz lost to the Socialist Party in the 2002 election. The Socialist Party’s organizational structure was fragmented, its performance was poor, and it lost popular support. In 2010, Fidesz, embracing conservatism and nationalism, won the parliamentary election again, ushering in a long period of rule that continues to this day. Besides the Socialist Party and Fidesz, Hungarian politics currently features left-wing parties like the Democratic Union, Greenpeace, and the Movement Party, as well as right-wing parties like the Christian Democratic People’s Party, Tisza (also translated as “Respect and Freedom Party”), and the Ubik Party. While these parties all hold parliamentary seats, their influence is limited. Recently, Tisza has rapidly risen in Hungarian politics, particularly with the participation of former Fidesz member Peter Már, whose support has surged.
The development of Hungarian party politics exhibits two notable characteristics. First, the diversity of party guiding ideologies reflects the volatile nature of social ideology. Conservatism, liberalism, social democracy, nationalism, communism, fascism, anti-Semitism, agrarianism, and environmentalism have all emerged in Hungarian politics, making Hungary a testing ground for diverse political ideologies.
Against this backdrop, the evolution of party guiding ideologies, from bourgeois nationalism to socialism, and then to liberalism and modern right-wing nationalism, reflects the oscillation of Hungarian social ideology. Second, the process of party politics is shaped by both internal traditions and external forces. Historically, the Hungarian party landscape has shifted repeatedly in response to pressure from external forces (such as the Habsburg monarchy, the Soviet Union, and the European Union), but the main thread of nationalism and national identity remains clear. Hungarian parties have repeatedly adjusted their course around issues such as national independence and the struggle for autonomy. The conservatism and nationalist traditions, combined with the external pressures facing Hungary, have shaped the course of Hungarian party politics.
The reasons for the rise of Fidesz and its long-term rule
The rapid rise and long-term rule of Fidesz are influenced by Hungary’s unique historical factors, as well as Fidesz’s governing ideology, performance, party building and foreign strategy.
First, Fidesz’s ideology is rooted in Hungarian history and meets the country’s current needs. Medieval Hungary was once a powerful Christian kingdom, but was subsequently subjected to long periods of external control and oppression, leaving behind a deep memory of both glory and humiliation. In modern times, lacking independent diplomatic autonomy, Hungary, as part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, was forced into World War I and, as a defeated nation, signed the Treaty of Trianon, losing approximately 70% of its territory and 50% of its population. This further fuelled the awakening and growth of Hungarian nationalism. Hungary’s rural population is predominantly rural, and religious sentiment and conservative ideology have a strong social foundation. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, Hungary underwent a process of privatization, with existing industries acquired by European and American international capital and talented individuals migrating to Western Europe, resulting in a severe hollowing out of both industry and talent.
Furthermore, the EU’s promotion of liberalism and individualism has come into sharp conflict with Hungarian nationalism and conservative values. In particular, the EU’s advocacy of open borders to accommodate immigrants and refugees, recognition of transgender rights, and a weakening of traditional marriage and family values have drawn the ire of many Hungarian citizens and conservative elites. Based on the country’s historical traditions and the lessons learned from national transformation after the end of the Cold War, Fidesz put forward the idea of “illiberal democracy”. (non-liberal democracy)
“illiberal democracy”
In 2014, Orbán publicly criticized neoliberalism, claiming that Hungary’s liberal democracy, practiced for over 20 years, had hindered the government from serving the national interest. “The new state we are building in Hungary is an illiberal state, but Fidesz does not reject the fundamental principles of liberalism.”
The theory of “illiberal democracy” combines conservative Christian values, family values, nationalist interests, and includes a critique of left-wing liberalism. In terms of specific policies, the Fidesz government has increased nationalization efforts in the economy, taking control of key domestic banks, energy companies, and public utilities.
Politically, Fidesz government passed a new constitution, the Hungarian Fundamental Law, which enshrined respect for Christian culture, the encouragement and protection of traditional family and marriage institutions, limited the Constitutional Court’s power to intervene in budgetary, tax, and pension matters, and the new constitution strengthened control over the news media. Social policy of the Fidesz government mandated Christian ethics education in public schools, encouraged childbirth through generous welfare programs, and maintained pressure on sexual minorities.
The Fidesz government has consistently upheld Hungary’s national interests and opposed interference and control by the European Union and Western European countries. Fidesz’s “illiberal democracy” ideology and policies have garnered support from rural residents, low-income individuals, and the elderly, who believe Fidesz government has achieved national economic development while preserving national traditions. Overall, Fidesz has gained support from the middle and lower classes, which account for about two-thirds of Hungary’s population and have become Fidesz’s “voting base.”
Second, Fidesz’s domestic and international policies have yielded positive results. These policies have boosted Hungary’s economic development, improving residents’ incomes and quality of life. From 2010 to 2023, Hungary’s per capita national income grew by approximately 55%, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 3.4%. The unemployment rate fell from 10.8% in 2010 to 4.1% in 2023. Private savings peaked at the end of 2021, increasing by over 56% compared to 2010. Fidesz’s policies of encouraging childbirth and improving social welfare have also significantly improved Hungary’s birth rate and family values. By 2024, Hungary’s birth rate had risen to second place in the EU. Meanwhile, the number of marriages doubled compared to 2010, while the number of divorces decreased by a quarter.
Furthermore, Fidesz has a clear understanding of the current international environment and Hungary’s position. Orbán stated that the “rise of the East and decline of the West” is an inevitable trend, and that Western suppression and containment of China and Russia not only threatens world peace but also impacts Hungary’s national interests.
Given its unique geographical location, Hungary should avoid becoming entangled in great power competition. Instead, serving as a bridge for East-West exchange and cooperation is the strategy that best serves its own interests. As early as 2010, the Orbán government began promoting an “opening east” policy, developing economic, trade, and cultural cooperation with Russia, China, and other Asian countries to offset influence from the EU and major Western European powers.
Since 2022, Orbán has further proposed upgrading “opening east” to “connectivity,” with the core goal of establishing Hungary as a “regional hub” for East-West exchange and cooperation and a regional middle power. Hungary’s pragmatic foreign policy has not only prevented it from becoming a victim of great power competition but has also boosted its foreign trade and attracted foreign investment. In 2023, Hungary’s total imports grew by 9.3%, its trade surplus increased by 13.6%, and its foreign trade value index climbed to 104.7%, demonstrating strong foreign trade performance. In the same year, total foreign direct investment in Hungary exceeded €13 billion, doubling from €6.5 billion in 2022, reaching a record high. Fidesz’s policies strongly appeal to ordinary people who desire a prosperous life and national stability and are weary of Western liberal ideologies, leading to its high support. European polling agencies show that Fidesz’s approval rating has remained around 45% for the past two years.
Third, Fidesz prioritizes internal party development and enhances its governing capacity.
First, Fidesz maintains a structured nation-wide organizational system, with standardized operations at all levels of party organizations, from the central government to the local levels. The Fidesz National Leading Committee is the central leadership and decision-making body of the party. The committee’s presidium, as the leading body, has absolute authority over personnel, finances, and dispute resolution for lower-level organizations. Regional committees serve as local organizing or coordinating bodies, responsible for local party activities, elections, and other matters. Local party branches, consisting of at least five members, are grassroots organizations, allowing Fidesz Central to communicate directly with rank-and-file members and the public. This organizational structure strengthens the party’s grassroots influence. At the same time, local organizations at all levels are required to follow the directives of the National Leading Committee to ensure the implementation of Fidesz Central Leading Committee’s decisions.
Secondly, Fidesz has gathered a group of prominent conservative intellectuals who provide Fidesz with ideological theories and policy advice.
Gyula Teller, the late renowned Hungarian sociologist and politician, is Fidesz’s most important theorist. By combining nationalism and conservatism, Gyula Teller (1934-2023) made significant contributions to the theory of “illiberal democracy.” Orbán called Gyula Teller as “comrade, friend, and master.”
István Stupf
Jurist and politician István Stupf, a longtime judge on the Hungarian Constitutional Court, played a crucial role in the drafting and adoption of Hungary’s new constitution. Political scientist and philosopher András Lancs interprets realpolitik and democratic liberal institutions from a conservative perspective, providing a theoretical basis for Fidesz’s political reforms. Economist György Martocs has served as Governor of the Hungarian National Bank since 2013. Under his leadership, the Hungarian National Bank has not only actively implemented Fidesz’s economic and financial policies but also established a university to train professional talents for Fidesz.
Thirdly, Fidesz prioritizes the development of young talents.
Originating from the youth movement, Fidesz has always prioritized the development of young people. Fidesz youth organs, the party’s youth wing, have hundreds of locations across Hungary, both in the capital and across the country. They organize various activities to engage young people with Fidesz’s ideology and recruit and develop future leaders. In the June 2024 European Parliament elections, three members of the youth wing were elected Fidesz Members of the European Parliament. The Matthias Corvinus Academy, a private educational institution founded in 1996, was acquired by Fidesz and heavily rebranded as a cultural and educational institution nurturing Hungarian youth and shaping national identity. Matthias Corvinus Academy offers free extracurricular education from elementary school to doctoral levels, while also subtly introducing conservatism and national culture to young people, promoting Fidesz’s achievements in government, and fostering a positive image for the party.
Fourth, Fidesz is building a right-wing alliance in Europe and the United States to foster a favorable external political environment.
Fidesz is actively capitalizing on the rightward shift in Europe’s political landscape, seeking out or fostering like-minded political forces. By forming an international united front, Fidesz is shaping a favorable external political environment.
First, Fidesz is forming a European Parliament group with right-wing parties in Europe, positioning itself as the “spokesperson” for right-wing political forces in Europe. In July 2021, Fidesz, along with over a dozen political parties, including the Polish Law and Justice Party, the French National Rally, the Austrian Freedom Party, and the Spanish Vox Party, signed a joint statement advocating for advancing European integration based on the principles of “national conservatism” and promoting a united voice for right-wing groups in Europe.
Following the European Parliament elections in June 2024, Fidesz will join forces with several right-wing parties in Europe to establish the new “Patriots for Europe” group, which will become the third-largest group in the European Parliament.
Second, Fidesz is providing direct and practical support to conservative parties and politicians in Europe. Through think tanks and media companies, Fidesz has provided electoral support to like-minded political parties in Central and Eastern European countries such as Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, and North Macedonia. Fidesz even directly provided €10.6 million in campaign funds to French right-wing politician Marine Le Pen.
Thirdly, Fidesz has collaborates closely with American conservatives.
Trump’s Good “Partner and Friend”
While Orbán has had a poor relationship with the Biden administration, Victor Orbanhas actively engaged with American conservatives, particularly those represented by Trump. Victor Orban has travelled to the USA numerous times for private meetings with Trump and has publicly supported conservative political activities in the US. Fidesz’s think tank has collaborated closely with US conservative think tanks, directly hiring prominent American conservative scholars to lead the think tank and facilitating liaisons with US-Hungarian conservatives.
Estimations for the Future Development of Hungarian Party Politics
In recent years, the European integration process has been hampered by successive economic crises, the refugee crisis, as well as Brexit, and geopolitical crises, leading to a rise in Euroscepticism and nationalism. The 2024 European Parliament elections and the US presidential election in particular have both reflected a rightward shift in the overall political landscape across Europe and the US. This has helped strengthen Hungary’s “strong right, weak left” political landscape and expand Fidesz’s influence in Europe. However, Fidesz still faces a concerted attack from the opposition, and the rise of emerging center-right parties, such as the Tisza Party, will pose even greater challenges for Fidesz.
First, Hungary’s “strong right, weak left” political landscape will remain unchanged in the short term
This “strong right, weak left” dynamic reflects the broader political climate in Central and Eastern Europe: left-wing parties in Central and Eastern Europe have become “pragmatic and functionalist” in their quest to win political elections.
Ideological ambiguity and a weakening of their theoretical foundations have led to a decline in their influence and political appeal. Hungarian left-wing parties’ pro-EU stance, their focus on minorities, and their advocacy for social diversity and religious freedom clash with national interests and the demands of ordinary citizens. They attack Fidesz for “government corruption” and “authoritarian rule,” but their lack of a constructive governing platform makes it difficult for them to gain support from the middle and lower classes.
The Tisza Party is a dark horse in the political arena. Its leader, Magyar, is a rising star in Hungarian politics and a former senior government official. Magyar opposes the long-standing dominance of Fidesz and Orbán in Hungarian politics, but also disagrees with liberal political views. Instead, Magyar seeks to establish a “centrist political force” in Hungary guided by conservatism and nationalism. The party remains right-wing. The Tisza Party has a more positive attitude towards the EU, and its political ideas are close to those of Fidesz, so it will compete for Fidesz’s “vote base”. At the same time, voters who are dissatisfied with Orban will also support the Tisza Party, which will pose a greater challenge to Fidesz’s position in the future.
Second, Fidesz will strengthen its efforts to de-radicalize populism and soften Fidesz’s populism.
Mainstream European and American media and academic circles (mostly neoliberals) have labelled Fidesz “right-wing populist” and “Eurosceptic.”
In response, Orbán emphasized that Fidesz’s policies are centered on defending Hungary’s national sovereignty and independence. Hungary supports European integration, but is dissatisfied with the governance practices of EU institutions. Orbán argues that the Fidesz government’s policies to protect Hungarian traditional culture and Christian values are intended to maintain social stability and strengthen cohesion, not driven by extremism or xenophobia.
Orbán stated: “Christian politicians cannot be racist.” Fidesz also stated that its governance is fully in line with Hungarian law and the constitution and that Fidesz exercises power based on the results of democratic elections. However, given the pressure of external criticism and the need to maintain long-term power, Fidesz will strengthen its efforts to de-radicalize and soften its populist discourse.
First, Fidesz emphasized its success as a ruling party in promoting economic growth, reducing unemployment, and implementing family-support policies. These tangible achievements stand in stark contrast to the empty promises of populism.
Secondly, emphasizing that Fidesz’s governing policies do not violate the fundamental framework of the capitalist system, Fidesz’s conservative elites will downplay its populist overtones to maintain the legitimacy of Fidesz’s ideology.
Thirdly, Fidesz will strengthen its cooperation with Hungary’s center-right parties, rallying elites of center-right parties through financial support, joint campaigns, and office-seeking. At the same time, Fidesz will exclude and even attack Hungary’s far-right parties to strengthen its own center-right identity.
Third, opposition parties are forming a coalition, and their policies are converging
To break Fidesz’s monopoly, Hungarian opposition parties have adopted a coalition strategy in elections. In the 2019 local elections, the opposition coalition won city councils in the capital, Budapest, and ten of the 23 cantonal cities. Although a coalition of six opposition parties lost the 2022 election, forming an alliance to counter Fidesz is a natural choice for the opposition. Currently, there are significant differences in political ideologies within the makeshift opposition coalition. Going forward, opposition parties will further coordinate their ideologies and policies, upholding the banner of “anti-Orbánism” and collaborating on specific issues such as anti-corruption, the rule of law, support for the European Union, and gender equality. Furthermore, to attract more voters, the opposition coalition will strive to promote policies that align with national interests and appeal to voters.
Fourth, Hungarian political party competition will increasingly involve foreign factors. Both Fidesz and the opposition coalition are vying for support from foreign powers.
Fidesz strives to forge a right-wing political alliance with Europe and the United States, while the opposition coalition actively seeks the support of liberal political forces in the US and Europe. On the one hand, opposition parties obtain financial support from external forces through various channels, such as the Soros Foundation, which has long provided substantial funding to opposition parties, and the EU’s program funding for Hungarian opposition non-governmental organizations and media outlets.
On the other hand, opposition parties align themselves with the EU on the principles of democracy and the rule of law, seeking the EU’s “international moral support” and collaborating with the Liberal Group in the European Parliament to enhance their international influence.
In response to opposition parties, in December 2023, Fidesz pushed the Hungarian Parliament to pass a package of laws prohibiting foreign organizations from financing election campaigns and establishing a special agency to investigate foreign interference in elections. This move was criticized by the EU and opposition parties as an attempt by Fidesz to manipulate the election and crack down on the opposition. In order to “show loyalty” to the European and American authorities, the opposition parties will criticize the Fidesz government’s pragmatic cooperation policy with China more fiercely and even try to hinder Fidesz government’s “Russia friendly” policy, and will hope to move closer to the West. Fidesz is determined to implement the “connectivity” strategy to win practical benefits from the “East” for Hungary in order to gain voter support.
Conclusion
The governing philosophy of Hungary’s Fidesz party and its leader, Viktor Orbán, is deeply influenced by Hungary’s unique development history and the lessons learned from Hungary’s modernization transition.
Hungary’s Fidesz party cannot be simply dismissed or labelled within the Western context of “right-wing populism” or “democratic regression.” The increasingly conservative atmosphere in the current political landscape of Europe and the United States provides a relatively favorable external environment for Fidesz.
However, Fidesz’s long-standing, forceful control over key national sectors has sparked domestic discontent and created significant tensions between EU institutions and the Orbán government. Amidst continued turmoil in Europe’s geopolitical order, Hungary, as a small and medium-sized European country, continues to face challenges in maintaining sustainable economic development, alleviating pressures on people’s livelihoods, and safeguarding national security. While Fidesz faces significant internal and external economic and political pressures, Fidesz will continue to formulate Hungary’s domestic and foreign policies from a conservative and nationalist perspective.