{"id":3664,"date":"2024-04-02T22:11:52","date_gmt":"2024-04-02T22:11:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/?p=3664"},"modified":"2024-04-02T22:11:52","modified_gmt":"2024-04-02T22:11:52","slug":"21-yuzyil-dunya-jeopolitigi-ve-cinin-secenekleri-cev-erkin-oncan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/?p=3664","title":{"rendered":"21. Y\u00fczy\u0131l D\u00fcnya Jeopoliti\u011fi ve \u00c7in\u2019in Se\u00e7enekleri \/ \u00c7ev. Erkin \u00d6ncan"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

21. Y\u00fczy\u0131l D\u00fcnya Jeopoliti\u011fi ve \u00c7in\u2019in Se\u00e7enekleri \/ \u00c7ev. Erkin \u00d6ncan<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7eviren: Erkin \u00d6ncan<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Yazar Lin Limin, CICIR (\u00c7in\u2019de en \u00f6nemli d\u0131\u015f politika d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu) taraf\u0131ndan ayl\u0131k olarak bas\u0131lan  \u00c7a\u011fda\u015f Uluslar aras\u0131 \u0130li\u015fkiler (\u00c7ince Versiyonunun) Dergisinin Ba\u015f Edit\u00f6r\u2019\u00fcd\u00fcr. Yazar \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda jeopolitik, uluslar aras\u0131 stratejive g\u00fcvenlik ve \u00c7in diplomasisi \u00fczerine odaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6zet: <\/strong>21. Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana uluslararas\u0131 jeostratejik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncede iki \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmu\u015ftur. Birincisi, Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesinin k\u00fcresel bir ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak y\u00fckseli\u015fi d\u00fcnya jeopoliti\u011finin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k merkezini Euro-Atlantik b\u00f6lgesinden Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesine gittik\u00e7e artan bir h\u0131zla kayd\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geleneksel klasik jeopolitik, g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelelerine ve sava\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131k \u00fczerine odaklanmaktayd\u0131,  fakat g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde bu durum giderek ortadan kalkmaktad\u0131r. Yeni jeopolitik k\u00fcresel kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ve i\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00fczerinde durmaktad\u0131r. Bu de\u011fi\u015fiklikler yeni se\u00e7eneklerle y\u00fckselen bir \u00c7in ortaya \u00e7\u0131karmakta, \u00fclkenin y\u00fckseli\u015fi i\u00e7in uygun ko\u015fullar yaratmaktad\u0131r.  \u00c7in \u015fimdi yeni bir jeostrateji form\u00fcle etmek zorundad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeopolitik nedir? Rudolf Kjellen, Saul Cohen, Halford Mackinder, Nicholas Spykman ve Zbigniew Brzezinski gibi \u00fcnl\u00fc ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131n hepsi de\u011fi\u015fik tan\u0131mlar yapmaktad\u0131r; kan\u0131mca bunlar\u0131n tan\u0131mlar\u0131nda baz\u0131 eksik y\u00f6nler vard\u0131r. ((1)) Bu makalenin yazar\u0131, Britanyal\u0131 jeopolitik akademist, Jeoffrey Parker\u2019\u0131n tan\u0131m\u0131na kat\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Parker, jeopoliti\u011fin amac\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 durumun arka plan\u0131n\u0131 mekansal veya co\u011frafik bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla analiz etmek oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemi\u015ftir.  Uluslararas\u0131 durumun ve onun arka plan\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcnsel bir kavray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturman\u0131n jeopolitik ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n \u201c nihai hedefi ve do\u011frulamas\u0131\u201d oldu\u011funu eklemi\u015ftir.[2] Bu makale, uluslararas\u0131 durumdaki genel e\u011filimlerin ve de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin niteliklerinin daha kapsaml\u0131, daha derinlemesine ve daha do\u011fru olarak anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak umuduyla,  somut mekan ve manevi-k\u00fclt\u00fcrel  de\u011ferler dahil,  uluslararas\u0131 durumdaki de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri mekansal veya co\u011frafik bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla incelemekte, b\u00fct\u00fcnsel bir analiz y\u00f6ntemi kullanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u00fcc\u00fcn do\u011fuya kaymas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Son y\u0131llarda, uluslararas\u0131 toplum, \u00f6zellikle A.B.D ve Avrupa, \u201cdo\u011fuya g\u00fc\u00e7 kaymas\u0131\u201d sorunu \u00fczerinde yo\u011fun tart\u0131\u015fmalar yapmaktad\u0131r. B\u00f6yle bir kayma d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezinin (veya jeopolitik a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k merkezinin)  Euro-Atlantik b\u00f6lgesinden Asya Pasifik\u2019e (bu b\u00f6lgenin merkezi Do\u011fu Asya\u2019d\u0131r) do\u011fru gidi\u015fini g\u00f6stermektedir.[3]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu, g\u00fcc\u00fcn co\u011frafik merkezini de\u011fi\u015ftirmekte oldu\u011fu teorisi, jeopolitik tarihte yeni bir \u015fey de\u011fildir. 20. Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda, baz\u0131 Japonlar 19. Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n \u201cDeniz Y\u0131lan\u0131 \u00e7a\u011f\u0131\u201d (yani Atlantik \u00e7a\u011f\u0131) oldu\u011funu ileri s\u00fcrm\u00fcst\u00fcr, fakat 20. Y\u00fczy\u0131l \u201cPasifik \u00e7a\u011f\u0131\u201d idi. Douglas MacArthur Kore Sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fkumandanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan al\u0131nd\u0131ktan sonra (b\u00fcy\u00fck askeri ricatlardan sonra) Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n can \u00e7eki\u015fmekte olan bir sistem oldu\u011funu ve gelecek 10.000 y\u0131l i\u00e7in Pasifik Okyanusu\u2019nun d\u00fcnya tarihinin s\u00fcrecini belirleyece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ne var ki, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerin hi\u00e7 biri rasyonel bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceye dayanm\u0131yordu. Japonlara ait olan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f Japon a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 milliyet\u00e7ileri taraf\u0131ndan \u00e7ok say\u0131da Asya \u00fclkesini i\u015fgal etmeleri ve d\u00fcnya hegemonyas\u0131 pe\u015finde ko\u015fmalar\u0131na gerek\u00e7e olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan bir ara\u00e7tan ba\u015fka bir \u015fey de\u011fildi. MacArthur\u2019un a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 askeri ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n sorumlulu\u011funu \u00fczerinden atma arzusundan ve k\u0131zg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015fa vurmaktan kaynaklan\u0131yordu.  Alman jeopolitik ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131ndan biri olan Karl Ernst Haushofer de o g\u00fcnlerde jeopolitik g\u00fcc\u00fcn do\u011fuya kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonucuna varm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Hint ve Pasifik Okyanuslar\u0131n\u0131n kapsad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgenin gelecekte d\u00fcnya g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn konumland\u0131\u011f\u0131 yer olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n yerini alman\u0131n bu b\u00f6lgenin kaderinde oldu\u011funu, d\u00fcnyaya egemen olman\u0131n buna ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ileri s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. [4] Ne var ki, onun gerek\u00e7esi hi\u00e7 de masum de\u011fildi. O da Almanya\u2019n\u0131n A.B.D, B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya ve Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019ne kar\u015f\u0131 Japonya ile ittifak yapma politikas\u0131na bir dayanak ar\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

21. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana ve \u00f6zellikle 2007deki k\u00fcresel mali krizin patlak vermesinden sonra, bu g\u00fcc\u00fcn do\u011fuya kaymas\u0131 yine d\u00fcnyan\u0131n dikkatini \u00fczerine \u00e7ekti ve canl\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ate\u015fledi. The Economist\u2019teki bir makale bu kaymay\u0131 \u201cAsya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fi\u201d ve \u201cg\u00fcne\u015f yine do\u011fuyor\u201d \u015feklinde tasvir etti. [5] A.B.D.\u2019de yay\u0131mlanan Newsweek dergisi 21. Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131 \u201cAsya Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131\u201d olarak adland\u0131rd\u0131. [6] Japonya D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Katsuya Okada \u201c\u015eimdiden sonra d\u00fcnya bir \u2018Asya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131na\u2019 girmi\u015ftir\u2019 diyerek bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc desteklemi\u015ftir.[7] K\u00fcresel E\u011filimler 2025:D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm Ge\u00e7irmi\u015f D\u00fcnya ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 2008 y\u0131l\u0131 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda AB.D. Ulusal \u0130stihbarat Konsey\u2019i taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan bir rapor istemiyerek de olsa d\u00fcnya zenginli\u011finin ve ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ve h\u0131zda bat\u0131dan do\u011fuya gidece\u011fini ve bunun d\u00fcnya sisteminde \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir deprem etkisi yaratan d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme neden olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. [8]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00f6ylesi yeni bir g\u00fc\u00e7 kaymas\u0131na itibar etmeyen baz\u0131 sesler olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen [9] ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu bu mesele \u00fczerinde fikir birli\u011fine varm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar yaln\u0131zca bu kayman\u0131n kapsam\u0131, h\u0131z\u0131, niteli\u011fi ve etkisi \u00fczerinde anla\u015famamaktad\u0131rlar. Baz\u0131lar\u0131 bu kayman\u0131n hala s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne inan\u0131rken baz\u0131lar\u0131 \u015fimdiden tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131na inanmaktad\u0131rlar. [10]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir \u00fclkenin veya b\u00f6lgenin toplam g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki (ekonomik, politik, askeri, teknolojik ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrel g\u00fcc\u00fc kapsar) de\u011fi\u015fimler do\u011fuda olabilecek herhangi bir g\u00fc\u00e7 kaymas\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki gerekli \u00f6nko\u015fuldur. Bunlar\u0131n i\u00e7inde ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesindeki de\u011fi\u015fimler en \u00f6nemlisidir. Euro-Atlantik b\u00f6lgesi ge\u00e7mi\u015f bir ka\u00e7 y\u00fczy\u0131ld\u0131r d\u00fcnyan\u0131n as\u0131l g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezi olagelmi\u015ftir. Bunun nedeni bu b\u00f6lgenin uzun bir s\u00fcre ekonomik olarak egemen konumda olmas\u0131yd\u0131. Ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7 olmadan g\u00fc\u00e7 kaymas\u0131 olmas\u0131 imkans\u0131zd\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Antik d\u00f6nemde  bile, Avarasya anakaras\u0131n\u0131n her iki taraf\u0131nda da nispeten yal\u0131t\u0131lm\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7 mekezleri her zaman vard\u0131. Bat\u0131 taraf\u0131nda, Bat\u0131 Avrupa merkezi g\u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcss\u00fcyd\u00fc. Do\u011fu taraf\u0131nda, g\u00fc\u00e7 iki b\u00f6lgede merkezlenmi\u015fti, \u00c7in ve Hindistan\u2019da.  \u00c7in\u2019in etki alan\u0131 kendine ba\u011fl\u0131 u\u00e7 b\u00f6lgeleriyle \u00e7ok geni\u015fti.[11) 19. Y\u00fczy\u0131ldan \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde Bat\u0131 Avrupa, toplam ekonomik de\u011fer bak\u0131m\u0131ndan Do\u011fu Asya\u2019n\u0131n gerisinde idi . Avrupa Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (OECD)\u2019nde ekonomi tarihi ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131s\u0131 olan Angus Madison\u2019a g\u00f6re Bat\u0131 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n 1820\u2019de 115 milyon n\u00fcfusu ve 140 milyar dolar gayrisafi has\u0131las\u0131 vard\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Do\u011fu Asya\u2019n\u0131n 666 milyon n\u00fcfusu ve 387 milyar dolar gayrisafi has\u0131las\u0131 vard\u0131 ( 5.5 kat n\u00fcfus ve 2.7 kat gayrisafi has\u0131la). Bat\u0131 Avrupa teknoloji, e\u011fitim ve askeri alanlarda Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ilerisinde olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen gayrisafi ekonomik de\u011fer ve n\u00fcfustaki fark hala olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemliydi. Bu fark Bat\u0131 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n o g\u00fcnlerde  Do\u011fu Asya \u00fczerinde ni\u00e7in ezici bir \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klar. 19. Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda Do\u011fu Asya Bat\u0131 Avrupa ile olduk\u00e7a e\u015fit ko\u015fullarda ili\u015fkiler s\u00fcrd\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Hatta Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n s\u00f6m\u00fcrgeci geni\u015flemesine kar\u015f\u0131 duran son kaleydi. Takip eden yar\u0131m y\u00fczy\u0131lda, sanayi, teknolojik ve toplumsal devrimlerle h\u0131z kazanan Bat\u0131 Avrupa toplam g\u00fc\u00e7te Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 ge\u00e7ti ve kesin \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck elde etti. 1870\u2019te Bat\u0131 Avrupa gayrisafi has\u0131las\u0131n\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7e katlayarak 420 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Bu arada, Do\u011fu Asya yakla\u015f\u0131k elli y\u0131ll\u0131k bir duraklama d\u00f6nemine girdi. 1820\u2019de 387 milyar dolar olan  gayrisafi has\u0131las\u0131 1870\u2019te \u00e7ok az artarak  Bat\u0131 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca 390 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi. Bu d\u00f6nem boyunca, Bat\u0131 Avrupa Do\u011fu Asya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 i\u015fgalci sava\u015flar a\u00e7t\u0131 ve akabinde Hint Yar\u0131madas\u0131nda ve G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya\u2019da \u00fclkeler fethetti ve Japonya ve \u00c7in\u2019i yar\u0131 s\u00f6m\u00fcrge \u00fclkeler durumuna getirdi, b\u00f6ylece Avro-Atlantik b\u00f6lgesini bir d\u00fcnya g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezi ve k\u00fcresel jeopoliti\u011fin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k merkezi yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A.B.D. (Avrupa\u2019dan kitlesel g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcn var\u0131\u015f yeri olarak) sanayi geli\u015fimini h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131k\u00e7a, Avro-Atlantik b\u00f6lgesi toplam g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ve jeopolitik etkisini artt\u0131rd\u0131. 1913\u2019te Bat\u0131 Avrupa ile A.B.D.\u2019nin birle\u015fik gayrisafi has\u0131las\u0131 1.36 trilyon dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, bu esnada Do\u011fu Asya\u2019n\u0131n toplam gayrisafi has\u0131las\u0131 yaln\u0131zca 610 milyar dolard\u0131.[12] Sanayi \u00fcretimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, Euro-Atlantik b\u00f6lgesinin pay\u0131 d\u00fcnyada %85 iken, Do\u011fu Asya\u2019n\u0131n pay\u0131 yaln\u0131zca d\u00fcnyanin yakla\u015f\u0131k %10\u2019u idi .[13] B\u00f6lgenin jeopolitik \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc destekleyen bu yeni kazan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ekonomik \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck ve politik, askeri, teknolojik ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrel alanlardaki egemenli\u011fiydi. O zamanlar, Avrupa ve A.B.D. yaln\u0131zca t\u00fcm okyanuslar\u0131, deniz rotalar\u0131n\u0131 ve stratejik noktalar\u0131 de\u011fil d\u00fcnyadaki kara par\u00e7alar\u0131n\u0131n da %84\u2019\u00fcnden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 denetimi alt\u0131na alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.[14]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1945\u2019tan sonra Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n gerilemesi ile A.B.D. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n yerini ald\u0131 ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fclkesi oldu. 1945\u2019te A.B.D. d\u00fcnyan\u0131n alt\u0131n rezervlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te ikisine, d\u00fcnya sanayi \u00fcretiminin be\u015fte birinden fazlas\u0131na, d\u00fcnya ihracaat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te birinden fazlas\u0131na, d\u00fcnya gemi yap\u0131m\u0131 olanaklar\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131na, 12 milyon askere, 1,200 a\u011f\u0131r tonajl\u0131 sava\u015f gemisine ve ayr\u0131ca atom bombalar\u0131na sahipti. Etkisi ve g\u00fcc\u00fc d\u00fcnyada rakipsizdi.[15] Sahip oldu\u011fu bu g\u00fcc\u00fcyle, A.B.D. Euro-Atlantik b\u00f6lgesinde k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezi olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Kore ve Vietnam Sava\u015flar\u0131 A.B.D.\u2019nin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc t\u00f6rp\u00fclediyse de Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n yeniden y\u00fckselmesi Avro-Atlantik b\u00f6lgesinin egemen olarak kalmas\u0131n\u0131 kesinle\u015ftirdi. 1950\u2019de Bat\u0131 Avrupa ile A.B.D.\u2019nin toplam gayrisafi has\u0131las\u0131 3 trilyon dolard\u0131 (d\u00fcnya toplam\u0131n\u0131n %59\u2019u). 1970\u2019te, bunlar\u0131n paylar\u0131 %50\u2019ye geriledi fakat bu hala d\u00fcnya jeopoliti\u011finde merkezi rollerini muhafaza etmeleri i\u00e7in yeterliydi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u0131n sona ermesinden sonra, Sovyetler Birli\u011fi da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131 ve \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc D\u00fcnya \u201cdenetimden tamamen \u00e7\u0131kma\u201d ve \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck kaos\u201d denilen bir duruma d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu durum Avro-Atlantik b\u00f6lgesinin toplam g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc artt\u0131rd\u0131. 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda, Bat\u0131 Avrupa ve A.B.D.\u2019nin toplam ekonomik has\u0131las\u0131 16 trilyon dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, bu d\u00fcnya toplam\u0131n\u0131n %44\u2019\u00fcyd\u00fc.[16] Hala askeri, ekonomik, teknolojik ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrel alanlarda mutlak \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyordu. Ne var ki, 2001\u2019deki \u201c11 Eyl\u00fcl\u201d olay\u0131 So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u0131n sona ermesinden bu yana elde edilen kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n \u015fimdi t\u00fckenmi\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir.Art\u0131k onlar\u0131n toplam g\u00fcc\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fte de\u011fildir. Tarih Avro-Atlantik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn zirve noktas\u0131ndan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru indi\u011fi, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelerin, \u00f6zellikle Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesinin y\u00fckseli\u015fte oldu\u011fu bir noktaya geri d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Bu yaln\u0131zca A.B.D. ve Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n sert ve yumu\u015fak g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn ikili ini\u015fe ge\u00e7i\u015finin (ter\u00f6rizm ve di\u011fer etkenlere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak) bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 de\u011fildir, fakat ayn\u0131 zamanda Japonya ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Euro-Atlantik sisteminden kopup Asya\u2019ya d\u00f6nme arzusunun bir yans\u0131mas\u0131d\u0131r. K\u00f6kenleri Avrupal\u0131 g\u00f6\u00e7menler olan A.B.D, Kanada, Avustralya ve Yeni Zelanda gibi \u00fclkeler dahi \u015fimdi bir Asya Pasifik kimli\u011fi pe\u015findeler. Barack Obama y\u00f6netimi Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesine daha \u00f6nceki A.B.D. y\u00f6netimlerinden \u00e7ok daha fazla \u00f6nem vermektedir. Ba\u015fkan Obama \u201cA.B.D. bir Pasifik \u00fclkesidir\u201d vurgusu yapm\u0131\u015f ve ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ald\u0131ktan sonra bir y\u0131ldan biraz fazla s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde b\u00f6lgeyi iki kez ziyaret etmistir.  A.B.D d\u0131\u015fi\u015flerinden sorumlu Devlet Bakan\u0131 Hilary Clinton deniz a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ilk ziyaret yeri olarak Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 de\u011fil Asya Pasifik\u2019i se\u00e7ti. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Ocak ay\u0131nda Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 Konferans Merkezi\u2019nde bir konu\u015fma yapt\u0131 ve \u201cAsya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesi k\u00fcresel politika ve ekonominin dayanak noktas\u0131d\u0131r\u201d, d\u00fcnyadaki  \u201cbir\u00e7ok sorunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm merkezidir\u201d ve A.B.D.\u2019nin \u201cAsya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesiyle ekonomik ve stratejik ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecektir\u201d ve ayr\u0131ca bu b\u00f6lgedeki \u201cliderli\u011fini\u201d sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda bulundu.[17] Uygulamada, A.B.D. b\u00f6lgede bir \u00e7ok ikili ve \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131  politik, ekonomik ve g\u00fcvenlikle ilgili ba\u011flar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeyi ve yeniden kurmay\u0131 \u00f6neren s\u0131k resmi ziyaretlerde bulunarak Asya Pasifik\u2019in jeopoliti\u011fini bi\u00e7imlendirme \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesi, \u00f6zellikle Do\u011fu Asya, son ony\u0131llarda h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye \u015fahit olmu\u015ftur. D\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki pay\u0131 s\u00fcrekli olarak artmaktad\u0131r. Maddison\u2019a g\u00f6re, 1950\u2019de Do\u011fu Asya\u2019n\u0131n toplam gayrisafi has\u0131las\u0131 840 milyar dolard\u0131 ve bu d\u00fcnya toplam\u0131n\u0131n %16\u2019s\u0131na, Avro-Atlantik b\u00f6lgesinin pay\u0131n\u0131n %28\u2019ine ve Bat\u0131 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131nkinin %60\u2019\u0131na denk geliyordu. 1970\u2019de, Do\u011fu Asya\u2019n\u0131n gayr\u0131safi has\u0131las\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7e katlanarak 2.7 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, bu d\u00fcnya toplam\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019si, Euro Atlantik b\u00f6lgesinin toplam\u0131n\u0131n %38\u2019I ve Bat\u0131 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n %75\u2019iydi. 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda, Do\u011fu Asya ekonomisi 12.1 trilyon dolar b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011fe eri\u015fti, bu d\u00fcnya toplam\u0131n\u0131n %34\u2019\u00fcne, Avro-Atlantik b\u00f6lgesi toplam\u0131n\u0131n %76\u2019s\u0131na ve Bat\u0131 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n %160\u2019s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyordu. Bu t\u00fcm Do\u011fu Asya\u2019n\u0131n (b\u00fcy\u00fck Do\u011fu Asya) toplam  ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn Bat\u0131 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7ti\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir. Do\u011fu Asya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki pay\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a Bat\u0131 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n pay\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.[18]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Baz\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar Maddison\u2019un istatistiklerinin Do\u011fu Asya ekonomisini oldu\u011fundan b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fine inan\u0131yorlarsa da onun vard\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7 olan Do\u011fu Asya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ve Avro-Atlantik\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ti\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fe uygundur. Son y\u0131llarda, gittik\u00e7e artan say\u0131da kurum ve ekonomist Maddison\u2019un vard\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonucu kabul etmektedir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Frederic Neuman Avrupa, A.B.D. ve Asya\u2019n\u0131n (b\u00fcy\u00fck Do\u011fu Asya) k\u00fcresel gayrisafi has\u0131lan\u0131n s\u0131ras\u0131yla %30, %26 ve %33\u2019ne tekab\u00fcl etti\u011fini hesaplam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. [19] Bu Maddison\u2019un uzun vadeli tahminleriyle uygunluk g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A.B.D.\u2019deki y\u00fcksek risk faizli ipotek kredileri krizinden dolay\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan k\u00fcresel mali kriz bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini h\u0131zland\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2009\u2019da, Asya Pasifik ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00e7ok az gerilemi\u015ftir fakat Avro-Atlantik b\u00f6lgesi negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7ine d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f ve iki b\u00f6lge aras\u0131ndaki fark a\u00e7\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu fark\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ayr\u0131ca uzun vadeli bir ekonomik e\u011filimdir. Uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi kurumlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan projeksiyonlarda Asya ekonomisi (Japonya hari\u00e7) 2010 ve 2011\u2019de %7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecektir, bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme Avrupa b\u00f6lgesinden %5, A.B.D.\u2019den %4 daha y\u00fcksektir. Bu Asya\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn ve etkisinin artmaya devam edece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir.[20] Frederic Neuman, Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesinin (\u00f6zellikle \u00c7in ve Hindistan) AB.D. ve Avrupa\u2019dan \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi nedeniyle  d\u00fcnya gayr\u0131safi has\u0131las\u0131ndaki  pay\u0131n\u0131n 2014\u2019te %40\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmektedir. [21]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asya Pasifik, kendisi ile A.B.D. ve Avrupa aras\u0131ndaki ticaret, finansman, \u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketim alanlar\u0131nda olan a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 daraltmak ve tersine \u00e7evirmek i\u00e7in h\u0131z kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Asya Pasifik toplam ticaret hacminde A.B.D\u2019yi sollam\u0131\u015f ve yak\u0131nda Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 da geride b\u0131rakacakt\u0131r.  2009\u2019da, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n lider ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 bir Asya \u00fclkesiydi.[22] S\u00f6z etmeye de\u011fer olan bir \u015fey de A.B.D.\u2019nin Asya ile ticaretinin di\u011fer t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgelerden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artmas\u0131d\u0131r. A.B.D.\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat pazar\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle Asya \u015fimdiden Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir.[23] A.B.D.\u2019nin Atlantik Okyanusu ile Pasifik Okyanusu aras\u0131nda olmas\u0131 nedeniyle A.B.D.\u2019nin ticareti, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve di\u011fer i\u015flerle ilgili Asya Pasifik\u2019teki \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 Avro-Atlantik b\u00f6lgesindekileri g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131nca, A.B.D.\u2019nin bir Atlantik \u00fclkesi olmaktan uzakla\u015farak bir Asya Pasifik \u00fclkesi olmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim Asya Pasifik\u2019in d\u00fcnya jeopoliti\u011finin yeni a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k merkezi olmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nko\u015fuludur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mali arenada, Do\u011fu Asya d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6vize sahip olan \u00fclkelerin b\u00f6lgesidir. Do\u011fu Asya, \u00c7in, Japonya, G\u00fcney Kore, Taiwan (\u00c7in), Singapur ve Hong Kong (\u00c7in)\u2019da d\u00f6viz sahipleri k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin \u00fc\u00e7te ikisinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 tutmaktad\u0131rlar. 2009\u2019da Asya borsalar\u0131 k\u00fcresel piyasa de\u011ferinin %40\u2019\u0131 kadar i\u015flem yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Menkul k\u0131ymetler borsalar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015flem de\u011feri 18.6 trilyon dolara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; bu Avrupa\u2019dakinin \u00fc\u00e7te birinden fazlad\u0131r.  \u00dcretim ve t\u00fcketim alanlar\u0131nda, 2009\u2019da d\u00fcnya cep telefonu  sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki %43, d\u00fcnya enerji t\u00fcketimi ve otomobil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki pay\u0131 her ikisinde de %35 olmu\u015ftur ve bu konularda A.B.D. ile Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00dc\u00e7 en b\u00fcy\u00fck otomobil \u00fcreticisi ve sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hepsi Pasifik \u00fclkelerindendir. \u0130kisi okyanusun bat\u0131 taraf\u0131ndad\u0131r. 2009\u2019da, \u00c7in d\u00fcnyan\u0131n lider otomobil \u00fcreticisi ve otomobil pazar\u0131 olma konusunda A.B.D.\u2019yi ge\u00e7mistir. 2009\u2019da, Asya \u00fclkeleri 14 uydu yerle\u015ftirmi\u015ftir, bu Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n yerle\u015ftirdi\u011finin iki kat\u0131d\u0131r. Hem \u00c7in hem de Hindistan iddial\u0131 uzay programlar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131rlar.[25] Petrol, k\u00f6m\u00fcr, demir cevheri, besin maddeleri ve kereste gibi emtialar\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n hepsi Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesindedir. \u00c7in, 2009\u2019da tek ba\u015f\u0131na 627.78 milyon ton demir cevheri, 240 milyar ton ham petrol ve rafine edilmi\u015f petrol, 42.55 milyon ton soya fasulyesi ve 28.06 milyon metre k\u00fcp kereste ithal etmi\u015ftir.[26] Asya\u2019n\u0131n zengin n\u00fcfusu mali kriz d\u00f6neminden sonra d\u00fcnyan\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in ana etmen olmu\u015ftur.[27] Bu, Asya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcretim ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m merkezi ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli lojistik ve y\u00fckleme merkezi olmas\u0131 demektir. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en yo\u011fun deniz, kara ve hava rotalar\u0131n\u0131n hepsi burada Asya Pasifik\u2019te birle\u015fir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeopolitik teorisine g\u00f6re bir b\u00f6lgenin jeopolitik bir merkez olabilmesi i\u00e7in \u015fu iki unsur gerekmektedir: yeterli alan ve bu alan\u0131 etkin bir bi\u00e7imde kullanabilme g\u00fcc\u00fc\u2026. Birinci unsur co\u011frafi konumla ilgilidir; ikinci unsur \u00e7ok geli\u015fmi\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7 ile ilgilidir.[28] Asya Pasifik d\u00fcnyan\u0131n t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgelerini birbirine ba\u011flayan u\u00e7suz bucaks\u0131z  bir kara par\u00e7as\u0131n\u0131 ve engin bir okyanusu kaplar. Atlantik b\u00f6lgesiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, co\u011frafik alan bak\u0131m\u0131ndan, Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesi jeopolitik merkez olabilmek i\u00e7in daha fazla avantajlara sahiptir. Pasifik Okyanusu \u00e7ok geni\u015f kara k\u00fctlesiyle \u00e7evrilidir ve bu nedenle Atlantik Okyanusu\u2019dan daha fazla okyanus \u00f6zelli\u011fi vard\u0131r.[29] Atlantik Okyanusu bir okyanustan \u00e7ok denize benzer. Pasifik Okyanusu Asya, Okyanusya, Antarktika, Kuzey Amerika ve G\u00fcney Amerika ile s\u0131n\u0131rda\u015fd\u0131r. Hint Okyanusu da Pasifik Okyanusu\u2019nun k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak buna kat\u0131l\u0131rsa Afrika k\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131n da Pasifik Okyanusu\u2019na s\u0131n\u0131rda\u015fd\u0131r. Buna g\u00f6re, Pasifik Okyanusu Avrupa hari\u00e7 t\u00fcm k\u0131talarla \u00e7evrelenmi\u015ftir. Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesinin son zamanlardaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi k\u00fcresel bir g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezi ve jeopolitik a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k merkezi olarak Euro-Atlantik b\u00f6lgesinin yerini almas\u0131nda itici g\u00fc\u00e7 olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

21. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana, Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesi k\u00fcresel bir jeopolitik merkez olmak i\u00e7in somut ad\u0131mlar atm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. B\u00f6gesel d\u00fczeyde, APEC 21 Asya Pasifik \u00fclkesini kendi bayra\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131nda toplam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu \u00f6rg\u00fct olgunla\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve \u015fimdi d\u00fcnya toplam \u00fcretiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcretmekten gurur duymaktad\u0131r.[30] Yerel d\u00fczeyde baz\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctler \u015fimdi jeopoliti\u011fi yatay ve dikey olarak bi\u00e7imlendirmektedirler. Ekonomik, ticaret ve g\u00fcvenlik \u00f6rg\u00fctleri, Shanghai \u0130\u015fbirligi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc, ASEAN+N, ASEAN Reginal Forum gibi \u00e7e\u015fitli ikili veya \u00e7oklu gruplarla artan bir bi\u00e7imde etkin olmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. K\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde, Asya Pasifik ile di\u011fer b\u00f6lgeler aras\u0131ndaki i\u015fbirli\u011fi de derinle\u015fmi\u015ftir, \u00f6rne\u011fin \u015fimdi bir Asya-Avrupa \u0130\u015fbirligi Toplant\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcreci vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De\u011fi\u015fen bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brintanyal\u0131 jeopolitik ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131s\u0131 Haford Mackinder bir zamanlar \u015f\u00f6yle demi\u015fti: \u201cHer \u00fclkenin kendi co\u011frafik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc vard\u0131r.\u201d A.B.D.\u2019li jeopolitik ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131s\u0131 Saul Cohen ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde \u015funa i\u015faret etmi\u015fti: \u201cJeopolitik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f de\u011fi\u015fen jeopolitik \u00e7evreye ve insanlar\u0131n bu de\u011fi\u015fimin niteli\u011fini alg\u0131lamas\u0131na g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fir.\u201d[31]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geleneksel jeopolitik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler be\u015f teori alt\u0131nda toplanabilir.[32] Birincisi, dualizmdir; d\u00fcnyada hemen hemen her zaman kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olan iki g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezi vard\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Mackinder\u2019in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne g\u00f6re, jeopolitigin tarihi \u201ckara adam\u0131\u201d ile \u201cdeniz adam\u0131\u201d veya \u201cmerkez\u201d ile \u201c\u00e7evre\u201d aras\u0131ndaki rekabetle ilgilidir.[33] \u0130kinci teori \u00e7evrenin farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 teorisidir. Bu teori d\u00fcnya g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezinin Avrupa k\u0131tas\u0131 \u00e7evresinde konu\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu nedenle \u00e7evreyi denetim almak i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarin ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011funu \u00f6ne s\u00fcrer. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Nicholas John Spykman \u015fu kan\u0131dad\u0131r: Avarasya\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131y\u0131 b\u00f6lgeleri d\u00fcnyay\u0131 denetim alt\u0131na alman\u0131n kilididir ve \u201c\u00e7evreyi kim denetim al\u0131rsa Avarasya\u2019ya o egemen olur. Avarasya\u2019ya kim egemen olursa d\u00fcnyan\u0131n kaderini o denetimi alt\u0131na alacakt\u0131r\u201d[34] \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc teori b\u00f6lgelerin farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 teorisidir. Bu teori d\u00fcnya g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezinin Kuzeydeki  Il\u0131man B\u00f6lge\u2019de oldu\u011funu ileri s\u00fcrer. Britanya\u2019l\u0131 jeopolitika ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131s\u0131 James Fairgrieve bunu \u0131l\u0131man b\u00f6lgenin 30 ile 60 derece kuzey enlemler aras\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu ve bu b\u00f6lgenin denetim alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in anahtar b\u00f6lge oldu\u011fu \u015feklinde tan\u0131mlar.[35] D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc teori \u00e7o\u011fulcu (pluralism) teoridir. Bu teori d\u00fcnya g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezinin kuzey yar\u0131mk\u00fcrede yerle\u015fmi\u015f oldu\u011funu kabul ederken g\u00fcney yar\u0131mk\u00fcrede di\u011fer g\u00fc\u00e7lerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kma ve bunlar\u0131n daha dengeli bir jeopolitik olu\u015fturma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rakmaz. Be\u015finci teori merkez-\u00e7evre teorisidir. Bunu \u00f6neren ki\u015fi olan ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 Immanuel Wallerstein \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f d\u00fcnya sisteminin k\u00f6keninin 16. y\u00fczy\u0131l bat\u0131 ve kuzey Avrupa\u2019s\u0131na dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yler. Ekonomiler ve teknolojiler geli\u015ftik\u00e7e Avrupa ve Kuzey Amerika d\u00fcnyan\u0131n merkezi haline geldi. Di\u011fer b\u00f6lgeler merkeze ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00e7evre veya yar\u0131-\u00e7evre y\u00f6relerdeydi. \u201cMerkez\u201d ile \u201c\u00e7evre ve yar\u0131-\u00e7evre\u201d aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ve merkezdeki iktidar i\u00e7in olan i\u00e7 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f tarihin jeopolik m\u00fccadelesinin ana temalar\u0131 oldu\u011funa inan\u0131r.[36]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir\u00e7ok jeopolitik terimler bu be\u015f teoriden t\u00fcretilmistir veya benimsenmi\u015ftir. Bunlar \u201cG\u00fc\u00e7\u201d, \u201cdenetim\u201d, \u201cdeniz g\u00fcc\u00fc\u201d, \u201ckara g\u00fcc\u00fc\u201d, \u201cya\u015fam bo\u015flu\u011fu\u201d, \u201cetki alan\u0131\u201d, \u201cmihver saha\u201d, \u201cd\u00fcnya adas\u0131\u201d, \u201cworld cape\u201d, \u201cmerkez \u00fclke\u201d, \u201c\u00e7evre\/ \u00e7eper\u201d, \u201ci\u00e7 hilal\u201d, \u201ckenar hilal\u201d, \u201cpar\u00e7al\u0131 ku\u015fak \/fragmented belt\u201d, \u201ckemer ku\u015fak \/arc belt\u201d, \u201cAvarasya\u2019daki kara delik\u201d, \u201cfay hatt\u0131\u201d, \u201cfay devletler\u201d, \u201cMarcator projeksiyonu\u201d, \u201csosyal Darwinizm\u201d, \u201corganizma teorisi\u201d, \u201c\u0131rk \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc\u201d, \u201cdomino etkisi\u201d, \u201cjeo-\u00e7evresel determinizm\u201d, \u201cAvro merkezcilik \/ Euro-centralism\u201d, \u201csar\u0131 tehlike\u201d, \u201cbirle\u015fik b\u00f6lgeler \/pan-regions teorisi\u201d, \u201ckendine yeterli olma bo\u015flu\u011fu\/alan\u0131\u201d, \u201corman kanunu\u201d, vs. gibi terimlerdir. Bu terimlerin \u00e7o\u011fu anlam olarak sald\u0131rgand\u0131r ve bir dereceye kadar A.B.D. ve Avrupa\u2019da baz\u0131 insanlar\u0131n sald\u0131rgan ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmaya a\u00e7l\u0131k \u00e7eken h\u0131rslar\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

20. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle So\u011fuk Sava\u015f sona erdikten sonra, jeopolitik merkez Kuzey Amerika\u2019ya kaym\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. A.B.D.\u2019nin jeopolitik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n belli ba\u015fl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerinden farkl\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin, \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan sonra, A.B.D. di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin b\u00f6lgelerini kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak i\u015fgal edip bir s\u00f6m\u00fcrge imparatorlu\u011fu kurma pe\u015finde olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ne var ki, A.B.D. uluslararas\u0131 sistemlere ve kurumlara egemen olarak d\u00fcnyay\u0131 denetimi almak istemi\u015ftir, fakat bu d\u00fcnya g\u00fcc\u00fc olma \u00e7abas\u0131nda A.B.D. ile daha \u00f6nceki jeopolitik g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda temelde bir fark yoktur. Brzezinski A.B.D.\u2019nin d\u00fcnya g\u00fcc\u00fc olma \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015f ve onu tarihteki di\u011fer uluslar\u0131n d\u00fcnya g\u00fcc\u00fc olma \u00e7abalar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck Santran\u00e7 Tahtas\u0131\u201dnda A.B.D.\u2019nin, e\u011fer d\u00fcnya egemenli\u011fini ele ge\u00e7irmeyi istiyorsa,  yaln\u0131zca Avarasya k\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil hem d\u00fcnyan\u0131n merkezini hem de \u00e7evre b\u00f6lgeleri denetimi alma zorunlulu\u011fu vard\u0131r.[37] Thomas Barnet, Pentagon\u2019un Yeni Haritas\u0131 (The Pentagon\u2019s New Map) adl\u0131 yeni kitab\u0131nda d\u00fcnyay\u0131 \u201ciyi \u00e7ocuklar\u201d ve \u201ck\u00f6t\u00fc \u00e7\u00f6cuklar\u201d, \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck adamlar\u201d ve \u201ck\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck adamlar\u201d ve \u201cmerkez\u201d ve \u201cfay devletler\u201d olarak b\u00f6ler. Bu \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcc\u00fcn egemenli\u011fi\u201d, \u201cbat\u0131 hatt\u0131 boyunca b\u00f6lme\u201d, \u201cbeyaz adam\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc\u201d ve \u201ciyi ve k\u00f6t\u00fcn\u00fcn dualizmi (ikicili\u011fi)\u201d \u00f6nermelerini yapan geleneksel bat\u0131 jeopolitik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesinden farkl\u0131 de\u011fildir.[38]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

21. y\u00fczy\u0131lda, jeopolitik teoride de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri y\u00f6nlendiren \u00fc\u00e7 kilit fakt\u00f6r vard\u0131r. Birincisi k\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin niteliksel geli\u015fmesi ve k\u00fcresel kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k sonucuna yol a\u00e7mas\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130kincisi Asya Pasifik\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve bu b\u00f6lgenin d\u00fcnya jeopoliti\u011fi \u00fczerine yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelere neden olmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc n\u00fckleer, uzay ve elektronik teknolojisindeki dikkate de\u011fer geli\u015fme (di\u011fer bilimsel geli\u015fmelerin aras\u0131nda) ve bunun sava\u015f ve bar\u0131\u015fa etkisidir. Bu \u00fc\u00e7 fakt\u00f6r jeopolitik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncede b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fikliklere neden olmu\u015f ve yeni bir 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l jeopolitik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geleneksel jeopolitik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce d\u00fcnya g\u00fcc\u00fc olma \u00e7abas\u0131na odaklan\u0131r. 19. y\u00fczy\u0131lda, \u00fclkeler s\u00f6m\u00fcrgeci imparatorluklar kurarak \u201cg\u00fcne\u015fin alt\u0131nda yer\u201d edinmek i\u00e7in birbirleriyle rekabet i\u00e7indeydiler. 20. y\u00fczy\u0131lda, d\u00fcnyay\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp d\u00fcnya sistemlerine ve d\u00fczenine hakim olmak i\u00e7in sava\u015ft\u0131lar. 21. y\u00fczy\u0131lda, bir d\u00fcnya g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezi var olmaya devam edecektir, fakat bu g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezi daha \u00f6ncekilerden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Birincisi, Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesi 21. y\u00fczy\u0131lda yeni bir d\u00fcnya g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezi olarak y\u00fckseliyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7 kaymas\u0131 b\u00f6lgenin \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck n\u00fcfusuna, muazzam b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckteki karasal alan\u0131na, \u00e7ok bol olan kaynaklar\u0131na ve s\u00fcrekli h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine dayanmaktad\u0131r. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar uzun bir bar\u0131\u015f d\u00f6neminin sonucudur. Tam tersine, tarihteki di\u011fer g\u00fc\u00e7 kaymalar\u0131 sava\u015flar sonucu ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130kincisi, \u015fimdi d\u00fcnya g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin farkl\u0131 haklar\u0131 ve farkl\u0131 sorumluluklar\u0131 vard\u0131r. Tarihsel olarak, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fclkeler sadece d\u00fcnya g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezini denetimleri alt\u0131na alarak d\u00fcnyay\u0131 denetimleri alt\u0131na alm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. G\u00fc\u00e7 Hollanda ve \u0130spanya\u2019dan Britanya\u2019ya ve daha sonra Britanya\u2019dan A.B.D.\u2019ye kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 zaman b\u00f6yle olmu\u015ftur. Ne var ki, Do\u011fu Asya \u00fclkelerinin \u00e7o\u011fu uyum, kozmopolitlik, bir arada ya\u015fama ve ortak refaha \u00f6nem veren Konf\u00fc\u00e7y\u00fcs\u00e7\u00fc k\u00fclt\u00fcr ile a\u015f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu, Hristiyanl\u0131k\u2019a dayanan ve fethetme veya m\u00fcmk\u00fcnse egemenlik kurma pe\u015finde olan bat\u0131 k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fcne z\u0131tt\u0131r. K\u00fcreselle\u015fme yaln\u0131zca \u00fclkelerin kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecektir. Ortak geli\u015fmeyi g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na alma veya iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, salg\u0131n hastal\u0131klar, b\u00fcy\u00fck afetler, s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi su\u00e7lar ve kaynaklar\u0131n k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi ola\u011fan veya ola\u011fan olmayan g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirme s\u0131ras\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n elele vermesi ve \u015fimdi ge\u00e7mi\u015fte oldu\u011fundan \u00e7ok daha fazla i\u015fbirli\u011fini derinle\u015ftirmesi zorunlu hale  gelmektedir. Gelecekte, bir Asya Pasifik d\u00fcnya g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131n\u0131 denetim alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesi taraf\u0131ndan kullan\u0131lacak bir ara\u00e7 haline gelmeyecektir. Tam tersine, Asya Pasifik g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezi ulu\u015flararas\u0131 i\u015fbirli\u011fi i\u00e7in bir lokomotif ve k\u00f6pr\u00fc olarak davranacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ayr\u0131ca, \u00fclkelerin \u201cg\u00fcne\u015fin alt\u0131nda yer\u201d arad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan s\u00f6z edebildi\u011fi g\u00fcnler uzun zaman \u00f6nce ge\u00e7ip gitmi\u015ftir. O g\u00fcnler geleneksel jeopoliti\u011fin en karanl\u0131k ve en zalim aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011fu g\u00fcnlerdendi.[39] Bu teori, Adolf Hitler\u2019e ba\u015fka \u00fclkeleri i\u015fgal etmesi i\u00e7in ilham verdi (bu daha sonra \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019na neden oldu) ve 45-50 milyon ki\u015finin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne yol a\u00e7t\u0131.[40] 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l kaynaklar\u0131n k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2013 enerji, madenler, g\u0131da, su, toprak vs.gibi kaynaklar- \u00e7a\u011f\u0131 olacak olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen hi\u00e7 bir ba\u015fka \u00fclkeyi i\u015fgal edip bu sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnemeyecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Askeri dille konu\u015fursak, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgeleri di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelerinden daha stratejiktir (\u00f6rne\u011fin S\u00fcvey\u015f Kanal\u0131, Panama Kanal\u0131, Malaga Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 vs.). Bir kuvvet \u00fcss\u00fc bu alanlar\u0131 nas\u0131l kontrol eder? Bu soru Mackinder taraf\u0131ndan ortaya at\u0131ld\u0131ktan bu yana jeopolitik ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131n bir\u00e7ok ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131n\u0131n hayal g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc me\u015fgul etti. Spykman\u2019dan Brzezinski\u2019ye kadar A.B.D.\u2019li ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar mihver sahalar\u0131n yerini belirlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Brzezinski Avarasya k\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131n 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n mihver sahas\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve A.B.D.\u2019nin ne pahas\u0131na olursa olsun bu b\u00f6lgeyi kontrol alt\u0131na almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini savunur.[41] Bu ama\u00e7la, A.B.D.  Irak\u2019ta iki sava\u015f, Afganistan\u2019da iki sava\u015f yapt\u0131, Kosovo Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019na kat\u0131ld\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel bir anti ter\u00f6r sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131. Bu sava\u015flar onbinlerce hayata ve milyarca dolara mal olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen A.B.D. hen\u00fcz Avrasya k\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na alabilmi\u015f de\u011fildir. A.B.D.\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7ten d\u00fc\u015fmesi geri d\u00f6n\u00fclemez bir e\u011filim gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u201cD\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fck \/ declinism\u201d A.B.D. stratejik \u00e7evreleri i\u00e7in \u015fimdi bir \u201cazap\u201dt\u0131r.[42] E\u011fer tek bir \u00fclke veya b\u00f6lge d\u00fcnyaya egemen olamayacak ise  o zaman mihver alan olarak kabul edilecek bir \u015fey var m\u0131d\u0131r? Asl\u0131nda, Mackinder hi\u00e7 bir zaman belirli bir mihver alan g\u00f6stermemi\u015ftir ve bir\u00e7ok kez merkez \u00fclkenin neresi oldu\u011fu hakk\u0131nda fikrini de\u011fi\u015ftirince onu okuyanlar \u015fa\u015f\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.[43] Sovyetler Birli\u011fi Mackinder taraf\u0131ndan tan\u0131mlanan \u201cmerkez \u00fclkeyi\u201d bir kez kontrol alt\u0131na alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r fakat d\u00fcnyay\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almakta ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmu\u015ftur. Ger\u00e7ekte Sovyetler Birli\u011fi sonunda par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Aksine, 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l daha \u00e7ok k\u00fcresel a\u00e7\u0131lma, k\u00fcresel i\u015fbirli\u011fi ve k\u00fcresel payla\u015f\u0131m ile ilgilidir. Bu ba\u011flamda, \u201cmihver alan\u0131\u201d denetim alt\u0131na alma \u00e7abalar\u0131 bu k\u00fcresel e\u011filimlere terstir ve bunun gibi \u00e7abalar ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa mahkumdur. Son y\u0131llarda farkl\u0131 renkleri, dilleri, ideolojileri ve geli\u015fmi\u015flik d\u00fczeyleri olan \u00e7ok say\u0131da de\u011fi\u015fik \u00fclke Somali korsanlar\u0131yla m\u00fccadele etmek i\u00e7in gemiler g\u00f6ndermi\u015f ve elele vermi\u015flerdir. Bu d\u00fcnyay\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in bir k\u00fcresel i\u015fbirli\u011fi paradigmas\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131karmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geleneksel bat\u0131 jeopolitik\u00e7ileri iyi ve k\u00f6t\u00fc kavramlar\u0131n\u0131, bat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc vb. d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceleri temel alm\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Bat\u0131 ile do\u011fu, dostlar ve d\u00fc\u015fmanlar aras\u0131na bir \u00e7izgi \u00e7ekmi\u015flerdi. Bat\u0131 farkl\u0131 politik sistemlere tahamm\u00fcls\u00fczd\u00fcler ve s\u0131k s\u0131k demokrasi, insan haklar\u0131 ve hukukun \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ad\u0131na kendi sistemlerinden farkl\u0131 sistemleri olan di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin i\u00e7 i\u015flerine kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131lar. Ne var ki, Asya ait de\u011ferler Konf\u00fcsy\u00fcs\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fck\u2019e dayan\u0131r, \u00e7o\u011fulculu\u011fa (pluralism) sayg\u0131 g\u00f6sterir, \u00fclkelerin e\u015fitli\u011fine \u00f6nem verir, geli\u015fme modellerinin, politik k\u00fclt\u00fcrlerin ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerin farkl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul ederler. \u0130ster b\u00fcy\u00fck ister k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck, ister zengin ister fakir olsun, her \u00fclkenin kendi durumunu, tarihini ve k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc temel alarak kendi geli\u015fme modelini se\u00e7me hakk\u0131 vard\u0131r. Asya Pasifik d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezi haline geldi\u011fi zaman bu politik de\u011ferler d\u00fcnyay\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrecek ve bat\u0131 jeopolitik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncenin yerini alacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7a\u011fda\u015f jeopolitik tarih daha \u00e7ok d\u00fcnya g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezi i\u00e7in askeri rekabet \u00fczerinde yo\u011funla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Brintanya Hollanda, \u0130spanya ve Fransa\u2019y\u0131 yenmi\u015f ve daha sonra iki d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7ine d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Bu m\u00fccadeleye ge\u00e7 gelen Almanya, iki d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131na neden olarak, g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezini Britanya\u2019n\u0131n elinden kapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Sonunda, Almanya ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu ve Britanya \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan sonra orta g\u00fc\u00e7 haline geldi. A.B.D. bir istisnad\u0131r. 19. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda A.B.D. d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomisi olarak y\u00fckseldi. 1919\u2019da A.B.D.\u2019nin toplam ekonomik hacmi Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 ge\u00e7ti.[44] Ne var ki, o zamanda, A.B.D. d\u00fcnya g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezi olmak i\u00e7in rekabet etmeye pek hevesli de\u011fildi. ABD\u2019nin iki d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131na bula\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00f6n\u00fcls\u00fczce oldu. \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan sonra A.B.D. d\u00fcnya g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezini denetlemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u0131n sona ermesinden sonra A.B.D. d\u00fcnyadaki tek s\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak kald\u0131 fakat i\u015fler de\u011fi\u015fti. A.B.D. kendi g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftirip yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken askeri g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc -ana ak\u0131ma ra\u011fmen- aksi y\u00f6nde hareket ederek b\u00fcy\u00fctmeye ba\u015flad\u0131; bir\u00e7ok sava\u015f yapt\u0131, bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkeyi kendine d\u00fc\u015fman yapt\u0131 ve sonunda, bug\u00fcn, gerileyen bir g\u00fc\u00e7t\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Britanya, Almanya ve A.B.D.\u2019nin y\u00fckseli\u015f ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerini geriye bak\u0131p g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irdi\u011fimizde d\u00fcnya g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fcvenceye almak i\u00e7in askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanman\u0131n yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7ici bir ba\u015far\u0131 sa\u011flayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6rebiliriz. 21. y\u00fczy\u0131lda sava\u015f yapmak yaln\u0131zca kendi halk\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fini yitirmek anlam\u0131na gelmez, fakat ayn\u0131 zamanda bu \u00e7ok maliyetli bir i\u015ftir ve sonu\u00e7 vermez. N\u00fckleer bir sava\u015f durumunda, hi\u00e7 bir kazanan yoktur ve herkes zarar g\u00f6recektir. Yerel sava\u015flarda bile durum de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015ftir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, A.B.D. ve NATO Afganistan Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019da 100.000\u2019den fazla asker yerle\u015ftirdi, fakat Taliban\u2019\u0131n ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 hala \u00e7ok uzak bir ihtimaldir. Asl\u0131nda, zaman i\u00e7inde Taliban daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015ftir. Bunun nedeni, gerilla sava\u015f\u0131 ile m\u00fccadele ederken teknolojik \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck t\u00fcm potasiyeli ile kullan\u0131lamaz. Tam tersine, teknolojinin yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 gerillalar\u0131n bat\u0131l\u0131 askerlerle daha etkin bir bi\u00e7imde sava\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. A.B.D. Taliban\u2019\u0131 yenemez. 21. y\u00fczy\u0131lda, daha bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l Asya de\u011ferleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7in\u2019in jeostratejik tercihleri<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

21. y\u00fczy\u0131lda, \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck stratejisinin hedefi  kendi bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l y\u00fckseli\u015fini korumakt\u0131r. Bunun iki anlam\u0131 vard\u0131r. Birincisi, \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fi i\u00e7in bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l bir uluslararas\u0131 \u00e7evre yaratmak d\u00fcs\u00fcncesidir. \u0130kincisi, y\u00fckseli\u015finden sonra bile \u00c7in bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131 bir \u00fclke olarak kalacakt\u0131r. Bu \u00c7in\u2019in \u201ctekrar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir duruma gelse bile asla hegemonya pe\u015finde olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yleyen Deng Xiaoping\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesine uygundur [45] ve \u00c7KP\u2019nin 2007deki Onyedinci Kongresine sundu\u011fu raporda Ba\u015fkan Hu Jintao\u2019un s\u00f6ylediklerini de yans\u0131tmaktad\u0131r. Hu Jintao, \u00c7in\u2019in \u201casla hegemonya pe\u015finde veya geni\u015fleme \u00e7abas\u0131 i\u00e7inde olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6ylemi\u015ftir.[46] Bunlar \u00c7in\u2019in 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l jeostratejisinin temel ve ihlal edilemez  ana esaslar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6ncelikle, \u00c7in bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olmak ve bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l bir uluslararas\u0131 ortamda y\u00fckselmek istedi\u011fi i\u00e7in, geleneksel jeopoliti\u011fin \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7ebilmesi i\u00e7in hem cesur hem de ak\u0131ll\u0131 olmak zorundad\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in 21. y\u00fczy\u0131lda kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu jeopolitik \u00e7evre \u00e7ok karma\u015f\u0131kt\u0131r. Di\u011fer yandan, onun kom\u015fu oldu\u011fu \u00fclkelerin \u00e7o\u011fu onun y\u00fckseli\u015finden ku\u015fku duymaktad\u0131r. Baz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fclkeler ve Hindistan ve Japonya gibi \u00c7in\u2019le s\u0131n\u0131rlarla ilgili ve tarihi anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 olan \u00fclkeler \u00c7in\u2019le rekabet i\u00e7inde olmu\u015flard\u0131r ve \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fini geleneksel jeopoliti\u011fin bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ile  ele almaktad\u0131rlar. Baz\u0131 \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7ler, \u00f6zellikle A.B.D., \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fine i\u00e7g\u00fcdesel olarak bat\u0131n\u0131n  jeopolitik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla bakmaktad\u0131r. Pekin ile yak\u0131n ili\u015fkiler kurarken ve G2 (ABD-\u00c7in) konseptini geli\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken A.B.D. her zaman \u00c7in\u2019i bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutma pe\u015finde olmaktad\u0131r. 2009 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonlar\u0131ndan bu yana A.B.D. RMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz kuru oran\u0131, Taiwan ve Tibet gibi sorunlarla ilgili \u00c7in\u2019in \u00e7ekirdek \u00f6nemdeki \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na sadece kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmam\u0131\u015f fakat ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00c7in\u2019in etraf\u0131na bask\u0131 yapacak kuklalar yerle\u015ftirme \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 da artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.[47] Orta Asyada ve Afganistan\u2019da, G\u00fcney Asya, G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya ve Kuzeydo\u011fu Asya\u2019da \u00c7in\u2019in Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesindeki etkisine ve \u00f6nderli\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131 durman\u0131n bir yolu olarak A.B.D. \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 etkin bir  savunma \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yapmaktad\u0131r. Latin Amerika, Afrika, Orta Do\u011fu ve hatta Avrupa\u2019da A.B.D. \u00c7in\u2019i bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Di\u011fer yandan, \u00c7in, tabii ki jeostratejik  \u00e7evresinde baz\u0131 olumlu geli\u015fmeler de ya\u015famaktad\u0131r.  D\u00fcnyan\u0131n jeopolitik merkezinin do\u011fuya kaymas\u0131 ve g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn jeopolitik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesindeki de\u011fi\u015fiklikler \u00c7in\u2019e bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l y\u00fckselme i\u00e7in stratejik bir f\u0131rsat sunmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kara par\u00e7as\u0131na sahip olmas\u0131 ve onun y\u00fckselen bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle artan bir uluslararas\u0131 etkisi olmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u015eimdi d\u00fcnya toplumunu etkileyip y\u00f6nlendirebilir ve ayn\u0131 zamanda geleneksel bat\u0131 jeopoliti\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke, \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler ve \u00c7in\u2019in baz\u0131 kom\u015fular\u0131, bu y\u00fckseli\u015fi kabul etmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, \u00c7in, A.B.D. dahil bir\u00e7ok bat\u0131 \u00fclkesiyle karma\u015f\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ili\u015fkileri geli\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. Aralar\u0131ndaki \u00e7ok say\u0131daki \u00e7eli\u015fkiye ra\u011fmen, iki \u00fclke (A.B.D. ile \u00c7in) son g\u00fcnlerde i\u015fbirli\u011fine odaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yukar\u0131da yaz\u0131lanlardan \u00c7in\u2019in, yap\u0131sal olarak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmac\u0131 ve hegemonik olan, geleneksel jeopoliti\u011fi a\u015fabilme yetene\u011finin oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stratejisini belirlerken  \u00c7in en \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6rleri tan\u0131mlamak zorundad\u0131r. D\u00fcnya g\u00fcc\u00fc do\u011fuya kaymakta oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u00c7in dikkatini Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesine yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu b\u00f6lge d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck n\u00fcfuslu on \u00fclkesinin (\u00c7in, Hindistan, A.B.D., Rusya, Japonya, Brezilya, Bengalde\u015f ve Endonezya), BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7 daimi \u00fcyesinin (\u00c7in, A.B.D. ve Rusya), dokuz n\u00fckleer g\u00fcc\u00fcn alt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n (\u00c7in, A.B.D., Rusya, Hindistan, Pakistan ve Kuzey Kore), d\u00fcnyan\u0131n d\u00f6rt en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisinin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fcn (A.B.D., \u00c7in ve Japonya) ve on \u00f6nde gelen askeri g\u00fcc\u00fcn yedisinin (\u00c7in, A.B.D., Rusya, Japonya, Hindistan, Kuzey Kore ve G\u00fcney Kore) bulundu\u011fu b\u00f6lgedir. B\u00f6lgenin geli\u015fme ve toplumsal kalk\u0131nma beklentileri ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n politik ve ekonomik gidi\u015fat\u0131na olan artan etkisi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131n\u0131rsa Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesine kim hakim olursa d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezini kontrol alt\u0131na alacakt\u0131r demek yerindedir. \u00c7in Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesinin mihver sahas\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu i\u00e7in bu b\u00f6lgeye odaklanarak k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 olma emelini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilir. \u00c7in bu b\u00f6lgeye odaklanm\u0131\u015f kalmal\u0131, \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck ve uygulanamaz hedeflerden ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. G\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7ok geni\u015f bir b\u00f6lgeye da\u011f\u0131tmamak veya fazla d\u00fc\u015fman edinmemek i\u00e7in dikkatli olmak zorundad\u0131r. En az\u0131ndan gelecek d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in, \u00c7in, k\u00fcresel bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olman\u0131n cazibesine kap\u0131lmadan bir Asya Pasifik g\u00fcc\u00fc olmakla yetinmelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7in, \u00e7e\u015fitli yakla\u015f\u0131mlarla ba\u015fl\u0131ca b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7leri kullanmak zorundad\u0131r. En \u00f6nemlileri kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerdir. \u00c7in eski \u201cDo\u011fu Asya\u201dn\u0131n birlikteli\u011fini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeli, \u201cASEAN+1\u201di sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 ve bu platformda b\u00f6lgedeki d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel i\u015fbirli\u011fini s\u00fcrekli te\u015fvik etmelidir. \u00c7in ayr\u0131ca s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan  durum farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131na \u00f6nem vermek zorundad\u0131r. Kuzey ve Kuzeybat\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler g\u00f6receli olarak istikarl\u0131d\u0131r, ne var ki, g\u00fcneydo\u011fu, kuzeydo\u011fu, bat\u0131 ve g\u00fcneybat\u0131daki b\u00f6lgeler farkl\u0131 derecelerde bir hayli kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Afganistan Sava\u015f\u0131 bitmek bilmezken, Pakistan\u2019daki durum \u00e7ok istikrars\u0131zd\u0131r. K\u0131rg\u0131zistan\u2019da bir rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi olmu\u015ftur. Tayland\u2019da K\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 G\u00f6mlekliler iktidardan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp tekrar iktidara geliyorlar. Kore n\u00fckleer sorunu hen\u00fcz \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlenmemi\u015ftir. Kara par\u00e7as\u0131 ve \u00c7in denizi ile ilgili anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar b\u00f6lgede hi\u00e7 bitmemektedir. B\u00f6lgesel bir silahlanma yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zlanmaktad\u0131r.[48] B\u00f6lge d\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin bu b\u00f6lgede stratejik etki i\u00e7in \u00c7in\u2019le rekabetlerini artt\u0131rmalar\u0131 sorunlar\u0131 karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. Gelecek ku\u015faklar i\u00e7in, \u00c7in G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya, Kuzeydo\u011fu Asya ve kendi bat\u0131 b\u00f6lgesi \u00fczerinde yo\u011funla\u015fmak zorundad\u0131r. Orta Asya, G\u00fcney Asya ve Basra K\u00f6rfezi \u00fczerine \u00f6zellikle yo\u011funla\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r,\u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu kalabal\u0131k n\u00fcfuslu b\u00f6lgelerin zengin petrol ve do\u011fal gaz rezerveleri vard\u0131r ve uluslararas\u0131 jeopolitik oyunun yeni odak noktas\u0131 haline gelmi\u015flerdir. \u00c7in, ayr\u0131ca, Japonya, Hindistan, Rusya, Avustralya ve A.B.D. gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kom\u015fular\u0131yla iyi ili\u015fkiler s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye \u00e7aba g\u00f6stermelidir. \u00c7in\u2019in Japonya politikas\u0131 kendi b\u00fcy\u00fck stratejisine hizmet etmelidir. \u00c7in ne yak\u0131n tarihini (Japon \u0130\u015fgallerini) unutmal\u0131 ne de yak\u0131n tarihinin gelece\u011fi y\u00f6netmesine izin vermelidir. Japonya\u2019y\u0131 ileri ad\u0131mlar at\u0131p A.B.D.\u2019den kopmas\u0131 ve Asya\u2019ya geri d\u00f6nmesi i\u00e7in cesaretlendirmesi gerekmektedir. \u00c7in Hindistan, Avustralya, Rusya ve A.B.D.\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k bir tav\u0131r i\u00e7inde olmal\u0131 ve onlar\u0131n bir Asya Pasifik kimli\u011fi pe\u015finde ko\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 memnuniyetle kar\u015f\u0131lamal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin, \u00c7in ASEAN+6\u2019y\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeli ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Uzak Do\u011fu b\u00f6lgesini daha da geli\u015ftirmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7in A.B.D.\u2019nin b\u00f6lgedeki uzun zamand\u0131r yerle\u015fik olan konumunu, \u00e7\u0131karlarlar\u0131n\u0131 ve ilgi alanlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan reddetme ve ona meydan okuma pe\u015finde olmamal\u0131d\u0131r. Bunun yerine, A.B.D.\u2019nin Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesindeki jeopolitik faaliyetlerini analiz etmeli ve bunlardan hangilerinin \u00c7in\u2019i bask\u0131 alt\u0131na almaya y\u00f6nelik olduklar\u0131n\u0131 belirlemelidir. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepki vermeye veya \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131 olmaya gerek yoktur. \u00c7in ayr\u0131ca Do\u011fu Asya merkezli bir b\u00f6lgesel b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fme s\u00fcrecini de\u011fi\u015fik d\u00fczeylerde ve \u00e7e\u015fitli mekanizmalarla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde te\u015fvik etmelidir. \u00c7in bu amac\u0131 a\u015fama a\u015fama ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r. B\u00f6lgesel i\u015fbirli\u011fi mekanizmalar\u0131 Shanghai \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc, Kuzeydo\u011fu b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fmesini, Mekong Nehri havzas\u0131ndaki i\u015fbirli\u011fini, ASEAN+1\u2019i, ASEAN+3\u2019\u00fc, ASEAN+6\u2019y\u0131, Do\u011fu Asya toplulu\u011funu, Asya Pasifik toplulu\u011funu ve APEC\u2019i i\u00e7erir. B\u00f6lgesel b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fme sorunuyla ilgili olarak \u00c7in a\u00e7\u0131k fikirli olmal\u0131 ve A.B.D., Rusya, Hindistan veya Avustralya\u2019y\u0131 bu s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda b\u0131rakma pe\u015finde olmamal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7in\u2019in ayr\u0131ca uzun vadeli k\u00fcresel bir stratejiye ihtiyac\u0131 vard\u0131r. Gelecekte, \u00c7in jeopolitik<\/p>\n\n\n\n

etkisini Afrika, Latin Amerika ve Orta Do\u011fu gibi zengin kaynaklar\u0131 olan b\u00f6lgelere geni\u015fletmek zorunda olacakt\u0131r. Ancak \u015fimdi, \u00c7in bu b\u00f6lgelerle \u00f6zellikle kaynaklar\u0131 ortaklasa geli\u015ftirme konusunda ekonomik ve uyumlu politik i\u015fbirli\u011fine odaklanmal\u0131 ve herhangi bir \u00fcst d\u00fczeyde stratejik propagandadan ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7in ile Avrupa aras\u0131ndaki ekonomik ve ticari \u00e7eli\u015fkiler artaca\u011fa benzemektedir.  Ne var ki, genel anlamda, \u00c7in ile Avrupa aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fkiler yaln\u0131zca spesifik \u00f6zel alanlarla ilgilidir. Bu ikisinin stratejik rakip olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr. \u00c7in\u2019in Avrupa\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik stratejisi i\u015fbirli\u011fine, \u00f6zellikle ba\u015fl\u0131ca Avrupa g\u00fc\u00e7leriyle ikili i\u015fbirli\u011fine, \u00f6nem vermelidir. 2010\u2019da \u00c7in Japonya\u2019dan d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ikinci en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi olma unvan\u0131n\u0131 kapt\u0131ktan sonra A.B.D. \u00c7in\u2019in h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomisi, ticaret ve uluslararas\u0131 etkisine kar\u015f\u0131 gittik\u00e7e daha \u00e7ok tetikte olacakt\u0131r. \u00c7in ile A.B.D. bir\u00e7ok alanda stratejik i\u015fbirli\u011fi i\u00e7inde olmalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, bunlar\u0131n baz\u0131lar\u0131nda potansiyel \u00e7eli\u015fkiler birden bire ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bu \u00e7eli\u015fkiler Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesinin \u00f6nderlik sorunu, farkl\u0131 geli\u015fme modelleri, ekonomik ve ticari modeller, d\u00f6viz kuru de\u011fi\u015fim oran\u0131 sorunu, stratejik g\u00fcvenlik vb. gibi konularda olabilir. \u00c7in\u2019e g\u00f6re, A.B.D. hem stratejik bir ortak hem de stratejik bir rakiptir. A.B.D. ile ili\u015fkisinde \u00c7in her zaman Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesinin jeopoliti\u011fini bi\u00e7imlendirmeyi ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131 \u00fczerinde denetim kurmay\u0131 hedefleyen A.B.D.\u2019nin stratejilerine kar\u015f\u0131 tetikte beklemektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7in ordusunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeye devam etmek zorundad\u0131r fakat ayn\u0131 zamanda bu konuda dikkat \u00e7ekmemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r. Geleneksel jeopolitik \u00f6nemini yitiriyorsa da bu sava\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmez. Stratejik ihtiyat, haz\u0131rl\u0131klar ve imkan ve kabiliyetler \u00c7in i\u00e7in geleneksel klasik jeopoliti\u011fi tarihin \u00e7\u00f6pl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne atmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nko\u015ful ve tedbirlerdir. Bar\u0131\u015f ve dostlu\u011fu te\u015fvik eden ve Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesini merkez olarak alan bir jeo-strateji i\u00e7in \u00c7in sald\u0131rgan g\u00fc\u00e7lerin g\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc korkutabilecek bir n\u00fckleer cayd\u0131rma yetene\u011fi de olan bir stratejik kudrete sahip olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Ne var ki, bu stratejik kudret nitelik olarak her zaman savunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 olmal\u0131d\u0131r. A.B.D. Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesindeki askeri g\u00fc\u00e7lerini belirgin olarak artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olmamas\u0131na ve hatta Japonya\u2019dakileri Guam\u2019a \u00e7ekmesine ra\u011fmen \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 askeri kudretini artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesi 21.y\u00fczy\u0131lda \u00c7in\u2019in stratejisi i\u00e7in odak nokta olmas\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019in kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131ca engeller A.B.D. ve di\u011fer bat\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerden geldi\u011finden dolay\u0131 \u00c7in askeri olarak haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131 ve stratejik bir kar\u015f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 kabiliyetini korumal\u0131, kara ve hava kuvvetlerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeli ve uzun menzilli hava sald\u0131r\u0131 imkan ve kabiliyetlerini h\u0131zla geli\u015ftirmelidir. Ne var ki, \u00c7in \u00e7ok maliyeti, hantal, zaman al\u0131c\u0131 ve modas\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f olan \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir s\u00fcper filo geli\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in temkinli olmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7in stratejik kabiliyetini daha \u00e7ok do\u011fuda ve g\u00fcneyde, \u00f6zellikle k\u0131y\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler boyunca geli\u015ftirmelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Son olarak, \u00c7in sa\u011flam bir g\u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcss\u00fc kurmak i\u00e7in bilimsel geli\u015fmeyi ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir ve istikrarl\u0131 bir ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirme \u00e7abas\u0131 i\u00e7inde olmal\u0131d\u0131r. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ekonomi geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 bir g\u00fc\u00e7 elde etmek i\u00e7in hayati \u00f6nemdedir. So\u011fuk Sava\u015ftan sonra \u00c7in bat\u0131dan gelen bask\u0131ya direnebilmi\u015ftir ve jeostratejik \u00e7evresini iyile\u015ftirebilmi\u015ftir \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yaln\u0131zca iyi bir strateji kullanmam\u0131\u015f fakat ayn\u0131 zamanda y\u00fckselen ekonomik bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olmu\u015ftu-bunlar\u0131 ekonomik geli\u015fmesine bor\u00e7ludur. 1990\u2019da,\u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 290.3 milyar dolard\u0131; bu A.B.D.\u2019nin %6.7\u2019si idi.2000\u2019de \u00c7in\u2019in gayr\u0131safi has\u0131las\u0131 1.1985 trilyon dolara y\u00fckseldi; bu A.B.D.\u2019nin %12.2\u2019si idi. 2008\u2019de \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomisi 4.4016 trilyon dolara geni\u015fledi; bu A.B.D.\u2019nin gayr\u0131safi has\u0131las\u0131n\u0131n %30.9\u2019u idi.[49] 2009\u2019da \u00c7in\u2019in gayr\u0131safi has\u0131las\u0131 RMB33.5353 trilyona yani piyasa d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131na g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.9 trilyon dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7in, halihaz\u0131rda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ekonomisi olmu\u015f ve kendisi ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kapatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. [50] \u00c7in \u015fimdi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6viz rezervlerini elinde tutan \u00fclke, \u00f6nde gelen ihracat\u00e7\u0131 ve otomobil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda liderdir. A.B.D.\u2019nin 2005\u2019te \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde \u00f6nemli bir pay sahibi oldu\u011fu sonucuna varmas\u0131n\u0131n arka plan\u0131nda bu vard\u0131r ve bu nedenle 2007\u2019de \u201cG2\u201d s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc ABD icat etmi\u015ftir. Uluslararas\u0131 mali kriz patlak verdi\u011fi zaman uluslararas\u0131 camia \u00c7in\u2019e d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin kurtar\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 olarak \u00f6nem vermi\u015ftir. [51] Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir ve istikrarl\u0131 bir geli\u015fme yaln\u0131zca \u00c7in\u2019in ulusal ekonomisini b\u00fcy\u00fctmesi ve halk\u0131n ge\u00e7iminin iyile\u015ftirilmesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli de\u011fildir, fakat ayn\u0131 zamanda ulusal y\u00fckseli\u015finin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ve bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131 bir jeostratejik \u00e7evre geli\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in de iyi bir stratejidir. Gelecek yirmi y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n bir s\u00fcre \u00c7in e\u011fer %8 civar\u0131nda bir y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilirse, 2026 ila 2037 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi olarak A.B.D.\u2019nin yerini alabilir. [52] O zaman, \u00c7in\u2019in stratejik pozisyonu ve \u00e7evresi b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmi\u015f olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lin Limin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

CICIR (\u00c7in\u2019de en \u00f6nemli d\u0131\u015f politika d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu) taraf\u0131nda ayl\u0131k olarak bas\u0131lan  \u00c7a\u011fda\u015f Uluslar aras\u0131 \u0130li\u015fkiler (\u00c7ince Versiyonunun) Dergisinin Ba\u015f Edit\u00f6r\u2019\u00fcd\u00fcr. Yazar \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda jeopolitik, uluslar aras\u0131 strateji ve g\u00fcvenlik ve \u00c7in diplomasisi \u00fczerine odaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1] Cheng Guangzhong: On Geopolitical strategy, the Publishing House of National Defense University of People\u2019s Liberation Army, January 1999, pp.13-17.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[2] Geoffrey Parker: Western Geopolitical Thought in the Twentieth Century, translated by Li Yiming, Xu Xiaojie, Zhang Rongzhong. Publishing House of People\u2019s Liberation Army, February 1992, pp. 2-3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[3]  \u201cDo\u011fu Asya\u201d bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, Do\u011fu Asya\u2019n\u0131n geni\u015fletilmi\u015f versiyonudur. Her ne kadar geleneksel tan\u0131m d\u00fcnyay\u0131 yedi k\u0131taya b\u00f6lse de, bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma Maddison\u2019un The World Economy: Bin y\u0131ll\u0131k Perspektif  kitab\u0131ndaki tan\u0131m\u0131 kabul etmektedir. \u201cDo\u011fu Asya\u201d sadece Kuzeydo\u011fu Asya ve G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya\u2019y\u0131 de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda Hindistan Yar\u0131madas\u0131 ve Okyanusya \u00fclkelerini de kapsamaktad\u0131r. Do\u011fu Asya \u015fekillenirken, geleneksel olarak Do\u011fu Asya\u2019n\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131 olmayan  Hindistan Yar\u0131madas\u0131 ve Okyanusya \u00fclkeleri giderek b\u00f6lge taraf\u0131ndan etkileniyor ve ekonomik, politik ve g\u00fcvenlik alanlar\u0131 ile entegre olman\u0131n yollar\u0131n\u0131 ar\u0131yorlar. Keza ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde Do\u011fu Asya\u2019n\u0131n tam olarak te\u015fekk\u00fcle i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgenin de kendi Hindistan Yar\u0131madas\u0131 ve Okyanusya \u00fclkelerinden ay\u0131ramaz. See Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, translated by Wu Xiaoying, Shi Faqi. Peking Univesity Press, January 2009, pp.150-154.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[4] Geoffrey Parker: Western Geopolitical Thought in the Twentieth Century, p. 79.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[5] \u201cThe Balance of Economic Power: East or Famine\u201d, The Economist, February 27, 2010, pp. 71-72.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[6] Katie Baker: \u201cStill Betting on Asia\u2019s Growth\u201d, Newsweek, March 8, 2010, p. 8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[7] Gideon Rachman: \u201cWhy Japan is edging closer to China\u201d, Financial Times, March 9, 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[8] US National Intelligence Council: Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[9] \u201cThe Balance of Economic Power: East of Famine\u201d, The Economist, February 27, 2010, p.71.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[10] About \u201cpower shift east\u201d, also see Martin Wolf, \u201cAn Ambitious Agenda\u201d, Financial Times, January 26, 2010; Merle David Kellerhals Jr., \u201cStrong US Engagement with Asia-Pacific Region Is Vital\u201d, Washington File, March 5, 2010; Kevin Brown, \u201cConsumer Spending starts slow shift east\u201d, Financial Times, January 27, 2010. etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[11] Immanuel Wallerstein: The Modern World-System, Vol. 1, translated by Tan Ronggen, Higher Education Press, 1998, p. 14; Tanaka Akihiko: World System, translated by Yang Jing, Economic Daily Press, April 1998, p. 13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[12] Angus Maddison: The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, p. 30, p. 42, p. 44, p. 84, p. 159, p. 169.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[13] Paul Kennedy: The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, translated by Lao Long and Zheng Dexin, Liaoning People\u2019s Press, 1989, p.10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[14] Paul Kennedy: The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, p. 12.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[15] Paul Kennedy: The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, p. 304-307.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[16] Angus Maddison: The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, p. 85, p. 229, p. 236.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[17] Merle David Kellerhalw Jr.: \u201cUnited States Seeks Deeper Ties with Asia-Pacific\u201d, Washington File, January 14, 2010, pp. 3-5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[18] Angus Maddison: The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, p. 85, p. 236.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[19] Kevin Brown: \u201cConsumer Spending Starts Slow Shift East\u201d, Financial Times, January 27, 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[20] \u201cIMF Chief Expects Asia to Exceed 7% Growth Rate\u201d, International Herald Tribune, January 10, 2010; Katie Baker: \u201cStill Betting on Asia\u2019s Growth\u201d, Newsweek, March 8, 2010, p. 8; \u201cEconomic and Financial Indicators\u201d, The Economist, March 20, 2010, p. 105.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[21] Kevin Brown: \u201cConsumer Spending Starts Slow Shift East\u201d, Financial Times, January 27, 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[22] Raiph Atkins: \u201cChina to Overtake Germany as World\u2019s Leading Exporter\u201d, International Herald Tribune, January 10, 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[23] Merle David Kellerhalw Jr.: \u201cStrong US Engagement with Asia-Pacific Region Is Vital\u201d, Washington File, March 5, 2010, p. 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[24] \u201cThe Balance of Economic Power: East or Famine\u201d, The Economist, February 27, 2010, p. 71; Jeremy Grant: \u201cTrading on Asia-Pacific Exchanges Overtakes Europe\u201d, Financial Times, March 3, 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[25] Kathrin Hille and Amy Kazmin: \u201cAsians Jockey for Influence in Orbit\u201d, Financial Times, March 18, 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[26] China Customs Statistics: \u201cValue and Volume of China\u2019s Main Imports\u201d, see International Trade, 2010, volume 2, p. 71.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[27] Haig Simonian: \u201cAsia\u2019s Wealthy Drive a fragile Recovery\u201d, Financial Times, March 19, 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[28] Saul Cohen: \u201cGeopolitics in Ancient and Modern History\u201d, in Military Strategy, edited by US Military Academy, translated by Military Analysis Department, Chinese Academy of Military Science. Military Science Press, Nov. 1986, p. 146.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[29] Saul Cohen, \u201cGeopolitics in Ancient and Modern History\u201d, in Military Strategy, p. 145.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[30] Christopher Connell: \u201cFree Trade Focus Shift to Asia and the Pacific\u201d, Washington File, January 14, 2010, p. 6.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[31] Saul Cohen, \u201cGeopolitics in Ancient and Modern History\u201d, in Military Strategy, p. 135.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[32] This paper borrows Geoffrey Parker\u2019s six schools of geopolitical thought, but eliminates the sixth one. See Geoffrey Parker, Western Geopolitical Thought in the Twentieth Century, pp. 187-190.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[33] Halford J. Mackinder: Democratic Ideals and Reality, translated by Wu Yuan, The Commercial Press, 1965, pp. 36-105; Geoffrey Parker, Western Geopolitical Thought in the Twentieth Century, pp. 142-143.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[34] Saul Cohen: \u201cGeopolitics in Ancient and Modern History\u201d, in Military Strategy, p. 155.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[35] Geoffrey Parker: Western Geopolitical Thought in the Twentieth Century, pp. 37-41.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[36] Immanuel Wallerstein: The Modern World-System, Vol 1, 1998, pp. 4-6; Geoffrey Parker: Western Geopolitical Thought in the Twentieth Century, pp. 168-169.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[37] Zbigniew Brzezinski: The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives, translated by China Institute of International Studies. Shanghai People\u2019s Press, 1998, p. 4, pp. 259-272.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[38] Thomas P. M. Barnett: The Pentagon\u2019s New Map, translated by Wang Changbin, The Eastern Publishing Company, 2007, pp. 93-98.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[39] Geoffrey Parker: Western Geopolitical Thought in the Twentieth Century, pp. 76-79.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[40] William Shirer: The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, translated by Dong Leshan, World Knowledge Press, 1979, pp. 120-125.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[41] Zbigniew Brzezinski: the Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives, p. 4, pp. 259-260.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[42] Gideon Rachman: \u201cRising China is a real contender\u201d, Financial Times, March 16, 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[43] Saul Cohen: \u201cGeopolitics in Ancient and Modern History\u201d, in Military Strategy, pp. 161-164.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[44] Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, pp. 83-85, p. 146.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[45] Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, People\u2019s Press, 1993, p. 158.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[46] Report to the Seventeenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, People\u2019s Press, Oct. 2006, p. 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[47] Ian Bremmer: \u201cChina Knows the Time for Lying Low Has Ended\u201d, Financial Times, March 29, 2010; Charles A. Kupchan: \u201cSoothing China-US Tensions\u201d, International Herald Tribune, March 31, 2010; Geoff Dyer: \u201cRelations with US come under new strain\u201d, Financial Times, January 27, 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[48] Kathrin Hille: \u201cArms Purchases by China\u2019s Neighbors Fuel Fears of Clashes\u201d, Financial Times, March 14, 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[49] Institute of International Strategy and Development, Tsinghua university: \u201cChina\u2019s National Strength is Rising\u201d, Xinhua Digest, April 2010, p. 47.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[50] Liu Quan: China Has Achieved a Good Performance, People\u2019s Daily (overseas edition), January 22, 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[51] David Pilling: \u201cChina will not be the world\u2019s deputy sheriff\u201d, Financial Times, January 28, 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[52] Institute of International Strategy and Development, Tsinghua university: \u201cChina\u2019s National Power is Rising\u201d, Xinhua Digest, April 2010, pp. 47-48.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

21. Y\u00fczy\u0131l D\u00fcnya Jeopoliti\u011fi ve \u00c7in\u2019in Se\u00e7enekleri \/ \u00c7ev. Erkin \u00d6ncan \u00c7eviren: Erkin \u00d6ncan Yazar Lin Limin, CICIR (\u00c7in\u2019de en \u00f6nemli d\u0131\u015f politika d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu) taraf\u0131ndan ayl\u0131k olarak bas\u0131lan  \u00c7a\u011fda\u015f Uluslar aras\u0131 \u0130li\u015fkiler (\u00c7ince Versiyonunun) Dergisinin Ba\u015f Edit\u00f6r\u2019\u00fcd\u00fcr. Yazar \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda jeopolitik, uluslar aras\u0131 stratejive g\u00fcvenlik ve \u00c7in diplomasisi \u00fczerine odaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6zet: 21. Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3664","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dunya-sosyalizmi"],"blocksy_meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3664","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3664"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3664\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3665,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3664\/revisions\/3665"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3664"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3664"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3664"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}