{"id":5786,"date":"2025-10-01T00:20:49","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T00:20:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/?p=5786"},"modified":"2025-10-01T00:20:50","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T00:20:50","slug":"turkiyede-secimden-sonra-chp-onderliginde-bir-restorasyon-hukumeti-olasiligi-daha-zayif-milliyetci-cephe-hukumetleri-daha-guclu-olasilik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/?p=5786","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Se\u00e7imden Sonra CHP \u00d6nderli\u011finde Bir Restorasyon H\u00fck\u00fcmeti Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Daha Zay\u0131f:\u00a0Milliyet\u00e7i Cephe H\u00fck\u00fcmetleri Daha G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Olas\u0131l\u0131k"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Se\u00e7imden Sonra CHP \u00d6nderli\u011finde Bir Restorasyon H\u00fck\u00fcmeti Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Daha Zay\u0131f:&nbsp;Milliyet\u00e7i Cephe H\u00fck\u00fcmetleri Daha G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Metin \u00c7ulhao\u011flu&nbsp;yaz\u0131s\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bkz. Milliyet\u00e7i Cephe H\u00fck\u00fcmetleri <\/strong><strong><u><a href=\"https:\/\/tr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Milliyet%C3%A7i_Cephe_h%C3%BCk%C3%BBmetleri\">https:\/\/tr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Milliyet%C3%A7i_Cephe_h%C3%BCk%C3%BBmetleri<\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Siyasetle ilgilenenler, \u00fclkenin yak\u0131n gelece\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u015f\u00f6yle ya da b\u00f6yle bir kestirimde bulunmak zorundalar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ve sola bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu kestirimler AKP\u2019nin ve Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n gidici oldu\u011fu, yerine gelecek yeni iktidar\u0131n (ve ba\u015fkan\u0131n) \u00fclkede bir \u201cnormalle\u015fme\u201d sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi siyasetin genel kabul g\u00f6ren kurallar\u0131yla akt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir noktaya \u00e7ekece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130\u00e7erde ve d\u0131\u015farda pek \u00e7ok siyasal \u00f6znenin ger\u00e7ekten bunu istedi\u011fini, dahas\u0131 halk\u0131n da b\u00f6yle bir de\u011fi\u015fimi arzulad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 inkar etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ancak, bu genel kabule ra\u011fmen i\u015flerin b\u00f6yle gitmeyece\u011fini, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yeni bir etaba ge\u00e7se bile bu kez bu yeni etab\u0131n kendi gerilimleri ve ucu a\u00e7\u0131k belirsizlikleriyle ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcnler de var.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130kinci kestirime dayanak olacak pek \u00e7ok etmenden s\u00f6z edilebilir. Ancak biz burada bunlardan sadece birine, somut ve basit bir senaryoya odaklanarak neler olabilece\u011fine bakmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">***<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki se\u00e7imlerde Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imi, belirli bir a\u00e7\u0131dan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda milletvekilli\u011fi se\u00e7imlerine g\u00f6re daha \u00f6nemli gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tekrar aday olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayarsak bu se\u00e7im, Erdo\u011fan i\u00e7in bir tamam m\u0131 devam m\u0131 meselesi olacakt\u0131r. Kaybetmesi halinde, ayn\u0131 zamanda partisinin genel ba\u015fkan\u0131 olan Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n siyasal ya\u015fam\u0131nda bir de \u201cana muhalefet lideri\u201d unvan\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mak isteyece\u011fini pek sanm\u0131yoruz. Kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131zda, zaman\u0131nda bu unvan\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f eski siyaset\u00e7ilerden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 bir karakter oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Erdo\u011fan se\u00e7imi kaybederse ve \u201cana muhalefet lideri\u201d unvan\u0131n\u0131 kendine yak\u0131\u015ft\u0131ramazsa buradan AKP\u2019ye neler olabilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u00e7ok say\u0131da senaryo \u00fcretilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ayr\u0131 bir konudur; ama b\u00f6yle bir s\u00fcrecin gerilimsiz g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcs\u00fcz, k\u0131yas\u0131ya \u201chalife kavgalar\u0131\u201d ya\u015fanmadan, tarikatlardan sermaye \u00e7evrelerine kadar \u00e7e\u015fitli odaklar i\u015fleri daha da kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmadan ve g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz T\u00fcrkiye\u2019si d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde \u201ckasetler patlat\u0131lmadan\u201d ya\u015fanmas\u0131 hi\u00e7 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">***<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Di\u011fer senaryoda ise Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imini kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak AKP ile MHP\u2019nin meclis \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu kaybetti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diyelim, milletvekilli\u011fi se\u00e7imleri sonucunda partilerin oy oranlar\u0131yla ilgili \u015f\u00f6yle bir tablo ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: AKP (32), CHP (27), \u0130yi Parti (16), HDP (12), MHP (7) ve di\u011ferleri (6).&nbsp; 6\u2019l\u0131 masadaki partilerin se\u00e7imlere nas\u0131l gireceklerini bilmiyoruz, belirtilen farazi oy oranlar\u0131n\u0131n meclis aritmeti\u011fine nas\u0131l yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir \u201csim\u00fclasyon\u201d da yapmad\u0131k; ama diyelim ki bu da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m bug\u00fcnk\u00fc cumhur ittifak\u0131na meclis \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu kaybettiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durumda, ba\u015fkanl\u0131k mevkiini koruyan Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n eline yeni f\u0131rsatlar ge\u00e7ecek, o da meclis aritmeti\u011fiyle \u201coynama\u201d ya da bu aritmetikten farkl\u0131 \u201cittifaklar\u201d \u00e7\u0131karma ad\u0131na her t\u00fcr yola ba\u015fvuracakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve AKP\u2019nin de da\u011f\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131ndan hareket edersek T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi kimi y\u00f6nleriyle 1970\u2019lerin \u201cMilliyet\u00e7i Cephelerinin\u201d (MC) bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">***<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bug\u00fcne kadar d\u0131\u015fardan gelen \u201cbozucu\u201d tahrikleri etkisiz b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnen 6\u2019l\u0131 masan\u0131n yar\u0131n bir koalisyonla iktidara gelmesi ve yukar\u0131da da Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n olmas\u0131 durumunda neler ya\u015fanabilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin senaryolar da geli\u015ftirilebilir.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Daha bug\u00fcnden g\u00f6r\u00fcnen \u015fudur: CHP ne yaparsa yaps\u0131n, hangi yumu\u015famay\u0131 ve esnekli\u011fi g\u00f6sterirse g\u00f6stersin, bir iktidar durumunda bu 6\u2019l\u0131 ittifak\u0131n pamuk ipli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 bizce a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Bunda samimi olduklar\u0131n\u0131 varsayarsak, bu ittifak\u0131n \u201cparlamenter sisteme\u201d ge\u00e7i\u015f ya da \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmi\u015f parlamenter sistem\u201d hedefi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli pek \u00e7ok konuda mutabakata var\u0131p \u00f6yle y\u00fcr\u00fcmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Milliyet\u00e7i Cephe H\u00fck\u00fcmetleri&nbsp; Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>CHP\u2019nin kendi taban\u0131ndan, se\u00e7meninden ve soldan gelecek bas\u0131n\u00e7la atmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilece\u011fi her ad\u0131m, \u201cmilli ve dini hassasiyetler\u201d s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda ba\u015fta \u0130P ve Saadet\u2019in, ekonomik yap\u0131lanma ve d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131 g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011finde Deva ve Gelecek\u2019in \u201coyunbozanl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla\u201d kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>El hak, Erdo\u011fan ve \u00e7evresindekiler de b\u00f6yle bir durumdan yararlanabilecek ehliyettedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6rne\u011fin Meral Ak\u015fener, bunca s\u00f6ylemlerine ra\u011fmen \u00fczerinde kimi de\u011fi\u015fikliklere gidilmi\u015f bir sistemde \u201cErdo\u011fan Ba\u015fkan, Ak\u015fener Ba\u015fbakan\u201d form\u00fcl\u00fcne neden fit olmas\u0131n ki?&nbsp;&nbsp; Geli\u015fmeler tam bu y\u00f6nde olmasa bile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi bekleyen yak\u0131n gelecekte yeni Milliyet\u00e7i Cephelerin ve yarataca\u011f\u0131 gerilimlerin, \u201cnormalle\u015fmeye\u201d, hele hele ger\u00e7ek kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla \u201crestorasyona\u201d g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ihtimal oldu\u011fu kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Se\u00e7imden Sonra CHP \u00d6nderli\u011finde Bir Restorasyon H\u00fck\u00fcmeti Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Daha Zay\u0131f:&nbsp;Milliyet\u00e7i Cephe H\u00fck\u00fcmetleri Daha G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Olas\u0131l\u0131k Metin \u00c7ulhao\u011flu&nbsp;yaz\u0131s\u0131 Bkz. Milliyet\u00e7i Cephe H\u00fck\u00fcmetleri https:\/\/tr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Milliyet%C3%A7i_Cephe_h%C3%BCk%C3%BBmetleri Siyasetle ilgilenenler, \u00fclkenin yak\u0131n gelece\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u015f\u00f6yle ya da b\u00f6yle bir kestirimde bulunmak zorundalar. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ve sola bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu kestirimler AKP\u2019nin ve Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n gidici oldu\u011fu, yerine gelecek yeni iktidar\u0131n (ve ba\u015fkan\u0131n) \u00fclkede [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5786","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-genel-tr"],"blocksy_meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5786","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5786"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5786\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5787,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5786\/revisions\/5787"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5786"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5786"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5786"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}