{"id":6127,"date":"2026-01-16T04:15:06","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T04:15:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/?p=6127"},"modified":"2026-01-16T04:15:11","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T04:15:11","slug":"irana-saldiri-gundemde-abd-dort-secenek-uzerinde-duruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/?p=6127","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran’a Sald\u0131r\u0131 G\u00fcndemde? ABD D\u00f6rt se\u00e7enek \u00dczerinde Duruyor"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u0130ran’a Sald\u0131r\u0131 G\u00fcndemde? ABD D\u00f6rt se\u00e7enek \u00dczerinde Duruyor<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Topyek\u00fcn Bir Sald\u0131r\u0131 Amerika’y\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu’da Ciddi A\u00e7mazlara Sokar<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Ocak 15, 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tang Zhichao, Orta Do\u011fu Kalk\u0131nma ve Y\u00f6neti\u015fim \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 Merkezi Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc, Bat\u0131 Asya ve Afrika \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc, \u00c7in Sosyal Bilimler Akademisi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Basra K\u00f6rfezi’ndeki gerilim hissedilir derecede y\u00fcksek. Tahran gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015fehirler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde normale d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti protestolar\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na alm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ABD medyas\u0131nda yer alan haberlere g\u00f6re, Abraham Lincoln u\u00e7ak gemisi sald\u0131r\u0131 grubu Orta Do\u011fu’ya konu\u015fland\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Baz\u0131 ABD ve \u0130ngiliz birliklerine, 14’\u00fc ak\u015fam\u0131na kadar Katar’daki El Udeid Hava \u00dcss\u00fc’nden \u00e7ekilmeleri emredildi. Bat\u0131 \u00fclkeleri vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ran’dan tahliye etmeye \u00e7a\u011f\u0131r\u0131yor. T\u00fcm i\u015faretler, ABD’nin \u0130ran’a bir sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n “yak\u0131n” oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

15’i sabah\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde \u0130ran, hava sahas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olarak kapat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve yaln\u0131zca resmi izinleri olan uluslararas\u0131 u\u00e7u\u015flar\u0131n \u0130ran’a giri\u015f ve \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na izin verildi\u011fini duyuran bir seyr\u00fcsefer bildirisi yay\u0131nlad\u0131. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Hava Kuvvetleri Komutan\u0131 Majid Mousavi, 14’\u00fcnde \u0130ran’\u0131n \u015fu anda y\u00fcksek alarmda oldu\u011funu ve f\u00fcze stokunun 2025’ten bu yana artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sava\u015f\u0131n olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131 Trump’a ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NBC News, kaynaklara dayanarak 14’\u00fcnde Trump’\u0131n ulusal g\u00fcvenlik ekibine \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 herhangi bir askeri eylemin haftalarca veya aylarca s\u00fcrecek uzun bir sava\u015f yerine “h\u0131zl\u0131 ve kararl\u0131 bir vuru\u015f” olmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fini bildirdi. Haberde, Trump’\u0131n \u0130ran’a askeri m\u00fcdahaleyi destekledi\u011fi ve 13’\u00fcnde “\u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 askeri eylemle ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken hedefleri ulusal g\u00fcvenlik ekibine a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131”, “ABD Savunma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131’n\u0131n da bu ama\u00e7la bir eylem plan\u0131 geli\u015ftirdi\u011fi” belirtildi. Trump y\u00f6netimi hen\u00fcz nihai bir karar vermemi\u015f olsa da, Trump’\u0131n \u0130ran ile t\u00fcm g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri iptal etme a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, ABD ve Bat\u0131l\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerinin vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ran’dan derhal tahliye etmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu’daki bir\u00e7ok askeri \u00fcsten gerekli olmayan personelin tahliyesini emretmesi ve \u0130ran \u00fczerinde s\u0131k s\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli askeri seferberlikler ve yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ke\u015fif faaliyetleri g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD’nin \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 askeri harek\u00e2t d\u00fczenleme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zla artmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6zetle, Trump y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran’daki i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa m\u00fcdahale i\u00e7in olas\u0131 politika se\u00e7enekleri \u015funlard\u0131r: birincisi, askeri m\u00fcdahale, \u00f6zellikle \u0130ran g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerine ve f\u00fcze \u00fcsleri ve hava savunma sistemleri gibi \u00f6nemli askeri tesislere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar; ikincisi, \u0130ran muhalefetine mali ve siber destek sa\u011flamak;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, \u0130ran i\u00e7indeki \u00e7evrimi\u00e7i propaganda sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rmak; d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 ekonomik ve ticari yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 daha da art\u0131rmak, Venezuela \u00e7evresindeki denizlerde petrol tankerlerinin durdurulmas\u0131na benzer eylemlerde bulunmak.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump daha \u00f6nce \u0130ran’\u0131n “k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgiyi a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131” <\/strong>ilan etmi\u015fti ve s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc yerine getirmek i\u00e7in ABD, \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 tekrar askeri harek\u00e2t ba\u015flatabilir. Ancak bunun nihayetinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fip ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyece\u011fi ve bu t\u00fcr bir eylemin \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi ve niteli\u011fi, \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin durumu kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131p alamayaca\u011f\u0131na, \u0130ran protestolar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 kay\u0131plara yol a\u00e7\u0131p a\u00e7mayaca\u011f\u0131na ve ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin askeri bir sald\u0131r\u0131 i\u00e7in belirledi\u011fi politika hedeflerine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. E\u011fer Trump y\u00f6netimi \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin durumu kontrol alt\u0131na ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve protestolar\u0131n yak\u0131nda sona erece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirirse, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir askeri m\u00fcdahale daha olas\u0131d\u0131r veya operasyon iptal edilebilir. Mevcut durum g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Trump’\u0131n \u0130ran’\u0131 m\u00fczakerelere zorlamak i\u00e7in kas\u0131tl\u0131 olarak gerilim yarat\u0131yor olmas\u0131 da g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

E\u011fer Trump y\u00f6netimi \u0130ran’daki protestolar\u0131n t\u0131rmanmaya devam edece\u011fini ve \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin durumu kurtaramayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirirse, ABD protestoculara yard\u0131m etmek ve \u0130ran’da rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli askeri m\u00fcdahalede bulunabilir. \u0130ran’daki mevcut duruma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, protestolar hala devam etse de, \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti durumu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kontrol alt\u0131na alm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve Tahran gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015fehirler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde normal hayata d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu ba\u011flamda, ABD hala askeri se\u00e7ene\u011fi tercih ederse, bunun Trump\u2019\u0131n vaatlerini yerine getirmeyi ve \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetini cayd\u0131rmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan cezaland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir askeri eylem olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak, ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmeti durumu yanl\u0131\u015f de\u011ferlendirip tam \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir sald\u0131r\u0131 ba\u015flat\u0131rsa, bu durum \u015f\u00fcphesiz ki durumu \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde t\u0131rmand\u0131racakt\u0131r. Her hal\u00fckarda, ABD’nin \u0130ran’daki i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa m\u00fcdahale etmek i\u00e7in, \u00f6zellikle de tekrar g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanarak, daha fazla ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 \u015f\u00fcphesiz yanl\u0131\u015f bir se\u00e7im olacak ve \u0130ran’daki durumun geli\u015fimi ve Orta Do\u011fu’nun istikrar\u0131 \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir olumsuz etkiye sahip olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sald\u0131r\u0131dan sonra, Amerika \u0130\u00e7in  “Orta Do\u011fu kabusu” Olabilir  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Baz\u0131 K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin ABD’yi askeri m\u00fcdahaleden ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve “benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f sonu\u00e7lar do\u011fabilece\u011fi” konusunda uyard\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildiriliyor. Suudi Arabistan’\u0131n da \u0130ran’a ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin Suudi topraklar\u0131ndan sald\u0131r\u0131 ba\u015flatmas\u0131na izin vermeyece\u011fini bildirdi\u011fi belirtiliyor. \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 yeni bir ABD askeri m\u00fcdahalesi, b\u00f6lgesel istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirmekle kalmayacak, ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 ve g\u00fcvenli\u011fi i\u00e7in risk olu\u015fturarak ters tepecektir. ABD’nin olas\u0131 askeri m\u00fcdahale tehdidinin ard\u0131ndan, Y\u00fcksek Dini Lider Ayetullah Hamenei de dahil olmak \u00fczere \u0130ranl\u0131 siyasi ve askeri liderler ABD’ye sert bir yan\u0131t verdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ran Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetleri Ba\u015fkomutan\u0131 Amir Hatami, d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lerin tehdit olu\u015fturmas\u0131na \u0130ran’\u0131n seyirci kalmayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda uyard\u0131. \u0130ran Parlamentosu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ghalibaf, Washington’\u0131n \u0130ran’a askeri m\u00fcdahalede bulunmas\u0131 halinde “ABD ordusu ve nakliye merkezlerinin me\u015fru hedefler olarak de\u011ferlendirilece\u011fini” belirtti. \u0130ran Y\u00fcksek Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi Sekreteri Ali Larijani de Trump’\u0131 “askerlerinize sahip \u00e7\u0131k\u0131n” diyerek uyard\u0131 ve ABD’nin \u0130ran’daki i\u00e7 protestolara m\u00fcdahalesinin t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgeyi kaosa s\u00fcr\u00fckleyece\u011fini ve ABD \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 yok edece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Trump y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 aceleci bir askeri sald\u0131r\u0131 ba\u015flatmas\u0131, b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenlik ve istikrar \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli olumsuz bir etkiye sahip olacak ve Ortado\u011fu’daki istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Birincisi, askeri eylem \u0130ran’\u0131n siyasi istikrar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit edebilir, i\u00e7 muhalefeti cesaretlendirebilir ve protestolar\u0131 t\u0131rmand\u0131rabilir. \u0130kincisi, ABD’nin askeri eylemi sadece \u0130ran’\u0131 karga\u015faya s\u00fcr\u00fcklemekle kalmayacak, ayn\u0131 zamanda b\u00f6lgesel istikrar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de Basra K\u00f6rfezi’nin bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l kalk\u0131nma ortam\u0131n\u0131 ciddi \u015fekilde baltalayacak yay\u0131lma etkilerine de yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ABD’nin askeri bir sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131 Ortado\u011fu’daki ABD \u00fcslerine, tesislerine ve personeline kar\u015f\u0131 misilleme yapmaya sevk edebilir. \u0130ran, b\u00f6lgesel petrol tesislerine sald\u0131rmak, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 kapatmak veya b\u00f6lgedeki \u00f6nemli ABD m\u00fcttefiklerine sald\u0131rmakla tehdit ederek durumu t\u0131rmand\u0131rabilir ve dur\u0131mun kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kma riskini art\u0131rabilir. \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 bir ABD askeri harekat\u0131, \u0130ran i\u00e7indeki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 muhafazakar g\u00fc\u00e7leri de g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ve iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 daha da derinle\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri’nden gelen askeri tehditle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalan \u0130ran, \u0130ran n\u00fckleer sorunuyla ilgili diplomatik m\u00fczakerelerin kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 tamamen kapatabilir ve hatta n\u00fckleer silah geli\u015ftirme yoluna girmeye zorlanabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130\u00e7 politika a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130ran’\u0131n i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na askeri m\u00fcdahale ABD i\u00e7in de ters tepebilir. \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 askeri bir sald\u0131r\u0131 ba\u015flatmak ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 t\u0131rmand\u0131rmak, yaln\u0131zca Trump y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran’la ilgili politika hedefleriyle \u00e7eli\u015fmekle kalmaz, ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD’nin Orta Do\u011fu stratejisini de baltalar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2025 sonunda yay\u0131nlanan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmi\u015f ABD Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Stratejisi, ABD’nin Orta Do\u011fu batakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan kurtuldu\u011funu ve \u0130ran’dan gelen n\u00fckleer tehdidin “azalt\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131” iddia etti.  \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131 bir ABD askeri m\u00fcdahalesinin istenmeyen sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, Trump y\u00f6netiminin kald\u0131rabilece\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde olabilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki hatalar\u0131 tekrarlamak ve Orta Do\u011fu’da tekrar batakl\u0131\u011fa saplanmak, Amerika’n\u0131n “Orta Do\u011fu kabusu” haline gelebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130ran’a Sald\u0131r\u0131 G\u00fcndemde? ABD D\u00f6rt se\u00e7enek \u00dczerinde Duruyor Topyek\u00fcn Bir Sald\u0131r\u0131 Amerika’y\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu’da Ciddi A\u00e7mazlara Sokar Ocak 15, 2026 Tang Zhichao, Orta Do\u011fu Kalk\u0131nma ve Y\u00f6neti\u015fim \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 Merkezi Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc, Bat\u0131 Asya ve Afrika \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc, \u00c7in Sosyal Bilimler Akademisi Basra K\u00f6rfezi’ndeki gerilim hissedilir derecede y\u00fcksek. Tahran gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015fehirler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde normale d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131na […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[51,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6127","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dunya-sosyalizmi-tr","category-dunya-sosyalizmi"],"blocksy_meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6127","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6127"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6127\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6129,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6127\/revisions\/6129"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6127"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6127"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6127"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}