{"id":6409,"date":"2026-04-29T19:26:49","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T19:26:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/?p=6409"},"modified":"2026-04-29T19:26:50","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T19:26:50","slug":"cin-ve-abd-ekonomilerini-karsilastirirken-dogan-kafa-karisikligi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/?p=6409","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in ve ABD Ekonomilerini Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken Do\u011fan Kafa Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u00c7in ve ABD Ekonomilerini Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken Do\u011fan Kafa Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 <\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Nisan 2026, Derleyen Eyl\u00fcl Deniz<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Uluslararas\u0131 uzmanlar \u00c7in ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 2015 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesi hesaplama \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc ile d\u00fcnyada birinci konuma y\u00fckseldi\u011fini yaz\u0131yorlar. \u00c7in bu a\u00e7\u0131dan % 25 \u00f6ne ge\u00e7ti. Asl\u0131nda burada iki sorun var. Birincisi en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomi en geli\u015fkin ve en ileri ekonomi anlam\u0131na gelmez. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00c7in aray\u0131 kapatmaktad\u0131r fakat ABD hala \u00f6ndedir. Tabii ki ABD ekonomisinin de ciddi zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu alanlar vard\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck darbe a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; ve son y\u0131llarda fosil yak\u0131tlar \u00fcretimi \u00e7ok ve t\u00fcketimi \u00e7ok artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; altyap\u0131 \u00e7ok eskimi\u015ftir. \u0130kincisi kullan\u0131lan hesaplama y\u00f6ntemi sorunu, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da hangi hesaplama y\u00f6ntemi daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bunu tart\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Standart” Uluslararas\u0131 \u00d6l\u00e7\u00fct, Nominal GSY\u0130H\u2019dir, fakat iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar ve kalk\u0131nma uzmanlar\u0131 genellikle Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesi (PPP) hesab\u0131n\u0131 kullan\u0131r. Bunun nedenini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131z.  “ABD GSY\u0130H’si 27 trilyon dolar” veya “\u00c7in, Japonya’y\u0131 ge\u00e7ti” gibi gazete ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fczde, Nominal GSY\u0130H kullan\u0131l\u0131yor demektir. Bu, t\u00fcm nihai mal ve hizmetlerin mevcut d\u00fcnya piyasas\u0131ndaki d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 (genellikle ABD dolar\u0131na \u00e7evrilir) \u00fczerinden de\u011ferini \u00f6l\u00e7er.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nominal GSY\u0130H, \u00fclkelerin ham ekonomik \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn ger\u00e7ek fiyat seviyeleri ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 kullan\u0131larak kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Nominal GSY\u0130H hesaplama \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc d\u00f6viz kurundan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkilenir. \u00c7in’in para birimi (RMB) dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f tutulmak isteniyorsa, ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcse bile, \u00c7in’in dolar cinsinden nominal GSY\u0130H’si k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclebilir. Nominal GSY\u0130H \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc kullanan \u00e7o\u011fu tahmin (IMF, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131), \u00c7in’in 2030’lu y\u0131llarda ABD’yi ge\u00e7ece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu, ancak baz\u0131lar\u0131 son ekonomik olumsuzluklar ve zay\u0131flayan \u00c7in paras\u0131 (RMB) nedeniyle bu tahmini daha ileri bir tarihe ertelediler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesi (PPP) hesab\u0131 ile GSY\u0130H<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“N\u00fcfus farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle toplam \u00c7in ekonomisinin 2049 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar ABD’nin iki kat\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde olaca\u011f\u0131” ifadesi, Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesi (PPP) ile GSY\u0130H hesaplamas\u0131na at\u0131fta bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesi, D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 etkisini ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131r. Her \u015feyi piyasa d\u00f6viz kuru kullanarak dolara \u00e7evirmek yerine, Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc \u015fu soruyu sorar: “ABD’de 1 dolarla sat\u0131n al\u0131nabilecek ayn\u0131 mal sepetini (sa\u00e7 kesimi, yemek, televizyon) \u00c7in’de ka\u00e7 yuan’a sat\u0131n alabilirisiniz?”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesi \u00fclkeleri Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma \u0130\u00e7in daha faydal\u0131 \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Ya\u015fam maliyeti a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan e\u015fit bir zemin olu\u015fturur. Sa\u00e7 kesimi gibi bir hizmet \u00c7in’de ABD’ye g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha ucuzdur. Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesi bunu hesaba katar ve \u00c7in ekonomisine nominal \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclere k\u0131yasla daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm verir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fcne g\u00f6re, \u00c7in zaten 2014-2016 civar\u0131nda ABD’yi geride b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bug\u00fcn, \u00c7in’in sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesi baz\u0131ndaki Milli ekonomi b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn ABD’ninkinden yakla\u015f\u0131k %20-30 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011fu tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nominal GSY\u0130H Mevcut d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurularak ekonominin kaba b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc verir. Askeri b\u00fct\u00e7eleri, k\u00fcresel finansal g\u00fcc\u00fc veya vergi tabanlar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in en iyi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct olabilir.  \u00c7in bu a\u00e7\u0131dan 2. s\u0131rada yani ABD’nin gerisinde. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesi ise \u00fclkedeki ya\u015fam standard\u0131, \u00fcretim kapasitesi ve i\u00e7 pazar b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc daha do\u011fru verir. \u0130nsanlar\u0131n kendi \u00fclkelerinde ne kadar sat\u0131n alabileceklerini kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in en iyisidir. \u00c7in bu a\u00e7\u0131dan 1. ( yani ABD’nin \u00f6n\u00fcnde)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evet. 2049 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda E\u011fer \u00c7in’in ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen GSY\u0130H’si 36.000 dolar olarak (sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesi) ABD’ninkinin yar\u0131s\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131rsa, ancak \u00c7in\u2019in n\u00fcfusu ABD\u2019den 4 kat b\u00fcy\u00fck olursa, bu takdirde \u00c7in\u2019in toplam GSY\u0130H (sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesi ile hesaplanm\u0131\u015f) ABD’nin toplam\u0131n\u0131n 2 kat\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peki Planlamac\u0131lar ve Ekonomistler Neden Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesini Kullan\u0131yor?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7inli planlamac\u0131lar ve bir\u00e7ok kalk\u0131nma ekonomisti i\u00e7in Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesi ile hesaplamak uzun vadeli stratejik hedefler i\u00e7in daha uygun bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctt\u00fcr:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. \u00c7in\u2019in Ya\u015fam Kalitesi \u0130\u00e7in: 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar “orta d\u00fczeyde geli\u015fmi\u015f bir \u00fclke” olma hedefi, Portekiz, Yunanistan veya G\u00fcney Kore gibi \u00fclkelerin ya\u015fam standard\u0131na ula\u015fma anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. D\u00f6viz Kuru yan\u0131ltmas\u0131ndan Kaosundan \u0130\u00e7in: Nominal GSY\u0130H rakamlar\u0131, RMB \u00fczerindeki finansal spek\u00fclasyon nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmalar g\u00f6sterebilir. Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesi ger\u00e7ek \u00fcretken g\u00fcc\u00fcn daha istikrarl\u0131 bir hesab\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar..<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Kendi Kendine Yeterlilik A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan: Bir \u00fclkenin kendi insanlar\u0131n\u0131 besleme, bar\u0131nd\u0131rma ve istihdam etme yetene\u011fi, para biriminin uluslararas\u0131 piyasalardaki de\u011ferine de\u011fil, s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7indeki ger\u00e7ek sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sonu\u00e7 2049 y\u0131l\u0131nda “\u00c7in ABD’nin iki kat\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde olacak” ifadesi, nominal GSY\u0130H i\u00e7in uluslararas\u0131 olarak kabul g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f bir rakam m\u0131d\u0131r? Hay\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesi baz\u0131nda GSY\u0130H uluslararas\u0131 olarak kabul g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f bir rakam m\u0131d\u0131r? Evet, kesinlikle. IMF ve D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 bu Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesi rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k olarak yay\u0131nl\u0131yor. “\u0130ki kat\u0131” rakam\u0131, belirtilen ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir hedefine (ABD’nin ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelirinin PPP’ye g\u00f6re %50’si) \u00c7in’in n\u00fcfusuyla birlikte ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131na dayal\u0131 do\u011frudan ve ge\u00e7erli bir matematiksel projeksiyondur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Basit\u00e7e s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse: E\u011fer k\u00fcresel finansal g\u00fc\u00e7, bir \u00fclkenin rezerv para birimi stat\u00fcs\u00fc veya Pentagon ile \u00c7in Halk Kurtulu\u015f Ordusu b\u00fct\u00e7elerinin kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak isterseniz, Nominal GSY\u0130H’ye bakmak uygundur. E\u011fer bir \u00fclkenin insanlar\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7 araba, ev veya yemek alabilece\u011fi veya i\u00e7 pazar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcyle ilgiliyse, Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesine  g\u00f6re GSY\u0130H’ye bakmak daha uygundur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00c7in ve ABD Ekonomilerini Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken Do\u011fan Kafa Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131  Nisan 2026, Derleyen Eyl\u00fcl Deniz Uluslararas\u0131 uzmanlar \u00c7in ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 2015 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren Sat\u0131n Alma G\u00fcc\u00fc Paritesi hesaplama \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc ile d\u00fcnyada birinci konuma y\u00fckseldi\u011fini yaz\u0131yorlar. \u00c7in bu a\u00e7\u0131dan % 25 \u00f6ne ge\u00e7ti. Asl\u0131nda burada iki sorun var. Birincisi en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomi en geli\u015fkin ve en ileri […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sosyalist-ulkeler"],"blocksy_meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6409","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6409"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6409\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6411,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6409\/revisions\/6411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6409"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6409"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6409"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}