{"id":6750,"date":"2026-09-27T13:42:12","date_gmt":"2026-09-27T13:42:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/?p=6750"},"modified":"2026-09-27T13:45:54","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T13:45:54","slug":"somut-ampirik-verilerle-cinin-kuresel-guney-ulkelerine-sermaye-ihraci-ve-dis-ticareti-emperyalist-nitelik-tasiyor-mu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/?p=6750","title":{"rendered":"Somut Ampirik Verilerle: \u00c7in\u2019in K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney \u00dclkelerine Sermaye \u0130hrac\u0131 ve D\u0131\u015f Ticareti Emperyalist Nitelik Ta\u015f\u0131yor Mu?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Somut Ampirik Verilerle: \u00c7in\u2019in K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney \u00dclkelerine Sermaye \u0130hrac\u0131 ve D\u0131\u015f Ticareti Emperyalist Nitelik Ta\u015f\u0131yor Mu?<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7in Alt-Emperyalist Bir \u00dclke Mi?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc D\u00fcnya Ekonomik ve Siyasi Sisteminin Krizinin En \u00d6nemli Nedeni<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Prof. Xu Zhun, Dr. Yan Zihao, L\u00fc Daxing<\/strong>, Open Times Dergisi, Temmuz 2026<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Prof. Xu Zhun, halen Sun Yat-sen \u00dcniversitesi Lingnan Koleji’nde profes\u00f6r ve doktora dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rev yapmaktad\u0131r. Daha \u00f6nce \u00c7in Renmin \u00dcniversitesi’nde, ard\u0131ndan Howard \u00dcniversitesi ve New York \u015eehir \u00dcniversitesi’nde ders vermi\u015ftir. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma alanlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda politik iktisat, \u00c7in ekonomisi ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce tarihi yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7eviren: Ali Elik<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6zet:<\/strong> Son y\u0131llarda d\u00fcnya siyasi ve ekonomik d\u00fczeni her d\u00fczeyde k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme ve kural tan\u0131mazl\u0131k emareleri g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; bu da So\u011fuk Sava\u015f sonras\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczenin art\u0131k s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez bir noktaya geldi\u011fini ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. Uluslararas\u0131 kamuoyu, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn k\u00fcresel alt\u00fcst olu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 genelde \u00c7in\u2019in ve bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fiyle ili\u015fkilendirmektedir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce d\u00fcnyas\u0131; \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fcnya sistemindeki konumu, \u00f6zellikle Bat\u0131 ve K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney ile ili\u015fkileri ve mevcut ABD merkezli emperyalist d\u00fczenle olan dinamik ba\u011f\u0131 konusunda taban tabana z\u0131t yakla\u015f\u0131mlar \u00fcretmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu makale, \u00c7in\u2019in g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz d\u00fcnya sistemindeki konumu meselesinden hareketle \u00c7in, K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney ve \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f d\u00fcnya sistemi krizi aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011f\u0131 sistematik bir bi\u00e7imde incelemektedir. Emperyalizm teorisi ile d\u00fcnya sistemi teorisini temel alan bu yaz\u0131, Marksist ekonomi politik y\u00f6ntemiyle \u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131m ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret istatistiklerini titizlikle tahlil etmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, bir yandan \u00c7in\u2019in genel olarak K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015finin benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir dinamizm a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kararak ABD merkezli emperyalist d\u00fczeni derin bir krize s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anahtar Kelimeler:<\/strong> \u00c7in, K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney, Emperyalizm, Kriz<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I. Giri\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda d\u00fcnya siyasi ve ekonomik konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcnde her d\u00fczeyde \u00f6nemli d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmler ya\u015fand\u0131. \u0130ktisadi boyuttan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD\u2019nin ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarife sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ve ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde k\u00fcreselle\u015fmi\u015f ekonomik yap\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r darbeler ald\u0131. Bu dramatik g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi sava\u015flar\u0131 bir yana, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin genel i\u015fleyi\u015f normlar\u0131 dahi k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ge\u00e7irdi. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 verilerine g\u00f6re 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnyada ticaret k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131 vakalar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 bine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olup bu say\u0131 2015 y\u0131l\u0131ndakinin tam be\u015f kat\u0131d\u0131r [1].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Siyasi ve askeri d\u00fczeyde ise yerk\u00fcre genelindeki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar belirgin bi\u00e7imde t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r: Rusya ile Ukrayna aras\u0131nda s\u00fcregiden askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, \u0130srail\u2019in Filistin direni\u015fine d\u00f6n\u00fck ac\u0131mas\u0131z k\u0131y\u0131m\u0131 ve bast\u0131rma giri\u015fimleri, ABD\u2019nin egemen bir devlet olan Venezuela\u2019n\u0131n Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Maduro\u2019yu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ka\u00e7\u0131rma c\u00fcreti, ABD ile Avrupa aras\u0131nda Gr\u00f6nland\u2019\u0131n aidiyetine dair ba\u015f g\u00f6steren uyu\u015fmazl\u0131klar, ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve \u00e7ok daha geni\u015f siyasi dosyalardaki gerilimler bunlardan yaln\u0131zca birka\u00e7\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Y\u00fczy\u0131ld\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f de\u011fi\u015fimlerin simgesi niteli\u011findeki bu geli\u015fmelerin g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7mesi, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f sonras\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczenin art\u0131k diki\u015f tutturamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. So\u011fuk Sava\u015f nihayete erdi\u011finde, ABD ve Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n temsil etti\u011fi modernle\u015fme \u00e7izgisi ile k\u00fcreselle\u015fme modeli yery\u00fcz\u00fcnde ezici bir a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011fa sahipti; adeta tarihin “sonu” gelmi\u015f gibiydi. Oysa aradan ge\u00e7en yaln\u0131zca otuz y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz d\u00fcnyas\u0131, her alanda kadim kurumlar\u0131n ve kurallar\u0131n yerle yeksan oldu\u011fu bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fc\u015f sergilemektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Genel \u00e7er\u00e7eveden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mevcut d\u00fcnya sisteminin kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 meydan okumalar en az iki kaynaktan beslenmektedir:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Birincisi, ABD \u00f6nderli\u011findeki Bat\u0131 blo\u011funun kendi i\u00e7 siyasi uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme u\u011fram\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/strong> 1990\u2019lar sonras\u0131ndaki kesitte ABD; s\u00f6zde “kurallara dayal\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczen” kisvesi alt\u0131nda siyasette “insan haklar\u0131 silah\u0131” ve liberal ideolojiyle, iktisatta teknoloji ve finans hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 ve IMF \u00fczerindeki h\u00e2kimiyetiyle, askeri planda ise “s\u00f6z dinlemeyen” rejimleri cezaland\u0131ran lokal sava\u015flar\u0131yla ABD merkezli \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f uluslararas\u0131 sistemin i\u015fleyi\u015f kaidelerini esasen tahkim etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ancak son on y\u0131lda ABD; keyfi yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 ve s\u00f6zde “ayr\u0131\u015fma” (decoupling<\/em>) hamleleriyle bizzat mimar\u0131 oldu\u011fu k\u00fcreselle\u015fme mimarisini kendi elleriyle dinamitlemi\u015ftir. Trump y\u00f6netiminin ekonomi dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 ve tarife sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f teorisyeni Stephen Miran\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na g\u00f6re ABD, mevcut uluslararas\u0131 siyasi ve iktisadi d\u00fczeni ayakta tutabilmek u\u011fruna kendi sanayisizle\u015fmesi dahil \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r bedeller \u00f6demi\u015ftir; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ABD hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131 korumak ad\u0131na bir dizi k\u00fcreselle\u015fme kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 tedbiri devreye sokmak mecburiyetindedir. ABD\u2019nin uzun y\u0131llar vazge\u00e7ilmez birer ament\u00fc gibi vaaz etti\u011fi liberal ilkeler ve “Washington Uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131”, b\u00f6ylelikle bizzat kendi eliyle a\u011f\u0131r bir darbe alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r [2].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mevcut d\u00fcnya sisteminden duyulan rahats\u0131zl\u0131k, Bat\u0131l\u0131 elitlerin ortak paydas\u0131 haline gelmi\u015ftir.<\/strong> ABD \u00f6rne\u011finde, Cumhuriyet\u00e7i Trump y\u00f6netiminden pek \u00e7ok hususta tezat te\u015fkil ediyormu\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnen Demokrat Biden y\u00f6netimi dahi, selefinin koydu\u011fu g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerini ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 aynen korumakla yetinmemi\u015f, serbest piyasac\u0131 (laissez-faire<\/em>) dogmayla taban tabana z\u0131t sanayi politikalar\u0131n\u0131 hararetle uygulamaya koymu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biden d\u00f6neminin Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Jake Sullivan, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda “Yeni Washington Uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131” kavram\u0131n\u0131 ortaya atm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/strong> Sullivan, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki ABD merkezli d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeninin yap\u0131sal kusurlar bar\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla d\u00fcnyan\u0131n yepyeni bir uzla\u015f\u0131ya muhta\u00e7 oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k y\u00fcreklilikle dile getirmi\u015ftir [3].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ortaya koydu\u011fu bu yeni uzla\u015f\u0131; \u00f6zelle\u015ftirme ve “liberal k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f  devlet” tak\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131p ulusal stratejik gayelere ula\u015fabilmek ad\u0131na kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 ve sanayi politikalar\u0131n\u0131 merkeze almaktad\u0131r [4]. B\u00f6ylesi bir siyasi k\u0131lavuzluk e\u015fli\u011finde Bat\u0131l\u0131 devletler, y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckteki d\u00fcnya sistemini kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 do\u011frultusunda yeniden bi\u00e7imlendirme ve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme iradesini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koymu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130kincisi, K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019in ve bilhassa \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fi d\u00fcnya sistemine yepyeni bir dinamizm ve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7in Kom\u00fcnist Partisi\u2019nin \u00f6nderli\u011findeki \u00c7in, “Washington Uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131”n\u0131 taklit etmek yerine k\u00fcreselle\u015fmi\u015f iktisadi d\u00fczeni esnek bir maharetle kendi lehine i\u015fletmi\u015f, kendi \u00f6z g\u00fcc\u00fcne ve m\u00fccadelesine dayanarak devasa bir n\u00fcfusun modernle\u015fmesini ba\u015farm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Engin n\u00fcfuslar\u0131, zengin kaynak rezervleri ve devasa pazar imk\u00e2nlar\u0131yla K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney \u00fclkeleri de son yirmi y\u0131lda kayda de\u011fer iktisadi kazan\u0131mlar elde etmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bunun da \u00f6tesinde K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney, adil bir uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczenin in\u015fas\u0131 i\u00e7in aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7in ve di\u011fer ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde BRICS te\u015fkilat\u0131 son yirmi y\u0131lda olgunla\u015farak uluslararas\u0131 bir a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k merkezi haline gelmi\u015ftir. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn stratejik finans ve yat\u0131r\u0131m kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan Asya Altyap\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131m Bankas\u0131 (AIIB) ve Yeni Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 (NDB), BRICS \u00fclkelerinin deste\u011fiyle faaliyete ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. Bu kurumlar, K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney \u00fclkelerine D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 ve IMF gibi Bat\u0131 tekelindeki finans kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda hayati alternatifler sunmu\u015ftur. Ayr\u0131ca BRICS b\u00fcnyesinde hayata ge\u00e7irilen Ko\u015fullu Rezerv D\u00fczenlemesi (CRA), \u00fcye \u00fclkelerin k\u0131sa vadeli \u00f6demeler dengesi s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131nda likidite sa\u011flayarak hem K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019in finansal istikrar\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirmi\u015f hem de k\u00fcresel finans g\u00fcvenli\u011fine katk\u0131da bulunmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bat\u0131l\u0131 siyaset\u00e7iler, K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019in ve bilhassa \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fini jeopolitik bir tehdit diliyle hedefe oturtmaktad\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00f6zgelimi eski ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Mike Pompeo, Nixon Kitapl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarihi konu\u015fmas\u0131nda, Nixon d\u00f6neminden bu yana \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen angajman d\u0131\u015f politika \u00e7izgisinin muhasebesini yapm\u0131\u015f; \u00c7in ile temas kurup onu Bat\u0131 g\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczene dahil etme stratejisinin umulan “bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l evrim”i sa\u011flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, aksine \u00e7ok daha kudretli bir \u00c7in do\u011furarak ABD\u2019nin k\u00fcresel tahakk\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etmi\u015ftir [5].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yukar\u0131da bahsi ge\u00e7en Bidenci Sullivan\u2019\u0131n “Yeni Washington Uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131” ve Trump\u00e7\u0131 Miran\u2019\u0131n tarife sava\u015f\u0131 teorisi de teorik arka planda do\u011frudan \u00c7in\u2019i has\u0131m bellemektedir. Elbette bu siyasi s\u00f6ylemlerin kendisi birer propaganda \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcd\u00fcr ve do\u011frudan nesnel hakikatler olarak ele al\u0131namaz. Ne var ki, en az\u0131ndan propaganda boyutunda dahi \u00c7in\u2019in (ve K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019in) kalk\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n, ABD ve Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n oyunun kurallar\u0131n\u0131 sil ba\u015ftan yazma h\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131n odak noktas\u0131 haline geldi\u011fi a\u015fik\u00e2rd\u0131r.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gelgelelim can al\u0131c\u0131 mesele \u015fudur: Al\u0131\u015f\u0131lagelmi\u015f pek \u00e7ok kuramsal perspektiften bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00c7in, d\u00fcnya sistemini b\u00f6ylesi sars\u0131c\u0131 bir ba\u015f a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fa s\u00fcr\u00fckleyen do\u011frudan bir fail de\u011fildir. \u00c7in, d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l ve itidalli bir \u00e7izgiyi kararl\u0131l\u0131kla korumu\u015f; y\u00fcksek tempolu ekonomik kalk\u0131nmas\u0131 sadece kendi refah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmakla kalmay\u0131p ABD ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelere ve d\u00fcnya geneline muazzam ekonomik getiriler ve k\u00e2rlar sunmu\u015f, uluslararas\u0131 sistemde yap\u0131c\u0131 bir rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/strong> Bat\u0131 ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda siyasi rejim, ideoloji ve hatta \u0131rk\u00e7\u0131l\u0131k saikli k\u00f6kl\u00fc zihniyet ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 elbette mevcuttur; ancak on y\u0131llard\u0131r s\u00fcregelen bu kronik farkl\u0131l\u0131klar, son on y\u0131lda d\u00fcnya sisteminde kopan f\u0131rt\u0131nalar\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131klamaya yetmemektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu yaz\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel problematik \u015fudur: \u00c7a\u011fda\u015f d\u00fcnya sistemindeki sars\u0131c\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmler nas\u0131l kavranmal\u0131; \u00c7in\u2019in ve bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019in bu s\u00fcre\u00e7teki nesnel konumu ve rol\u00fc nereye oturtulmal\u0131d\u0131r?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

 Buradaki “d\u00fcnya sistemi”, uluslararas\u0131 makro d\u00fczlemde ABD\u2019nin “kurallara dayal\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczen” \u015feklinde cilalad\u0131\u011f\u0131, Marksist gelenekte ise “emperyalist d\u00fczen” olarak tan\u0131mlanan ABD merkezli d\u00fcnya kapitalizmidir. Lenin\u2019in bir y\u00fcz y\u0131l evvel te\u015fhis etti\u011fi \u00fczere: “Kapitalizm, bir avu\u00e7 ‘ileri’ \u00fclkenin yery\u00fcz\u00fc n\u00fcfusunun ezici \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funa s\u00f6m\u00fcrgeci bask\u0131 ve mali bo\u011fma uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00fcnya sistemi haline gelmi\u015ftir.”<\/em> [6] Lenin, d\u00f6nemin emperyalizminin i\u00e7 dinamiklerini irdelerken, emperyalist hegemonyan\u0131n maddi temelinin d\u00fcnya \u00fclkelerinin kahir ekseriyetinden s\u0131zd\u0131r\u0131lan art\u0131-eme\u011fin gasp\u0131na dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u0131srarla vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emperyalist d\u00fczen yaln\u0131zca d\u0131\u015f tahakk\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fil, i\u00e7 toplumsal uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da bu art\u0131-emek gasp\u0131 \u00fczerine in\u015fa eder. Lenin\u2019in ifadesiyle: “Emperyalizm, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n yaln\u0131zca tek bir \u00fclkesini [\u00c7in\u2019i] de\u011fil, tamam\u0131n\u0131 payla\u015fmak anlam\u0131na gelir; en zengin birka\u00e7 \u00fclkenin tekelci y\u00fcksek k\u00e2rlar elde etmesi demektir; bu nedenle bu \u00fclkeler, proletaryan\u0131n \u00fcst tabakalar\u0131n\u0131 ekonomik olarak sat\u0131n alma, b\u00f6ylece oport\u00fcnizmi besleme, bi\u00e7imlendirme ve peki\u015ftirme olana\u011f\u0131na kavu\u015furlar.” [7]<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Buradan anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, ister i\u00e7 d\u00fczeninde ister d\u0131\u015f hegemonyas\u0131nda olsun ABD merkezli emperyalist sistem; siyasi, ekonomik, k\u00fclt\u00fcrel ve askeri boyutlardaki dayanaklara muhta\u00e7t\u0131r; ancak bu sistemin nihai harc\u0131, ABD ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere merkez \u00fclkelerin cebir ve cebir d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ara\u00e7larla d\u00fcnya sisteminden el koydu\u011fu art\u0131-de\u011ferdir. \u015eayet d\u00fcnya sistemi yap\u0131sal bir krize s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyorsa, bunun en temel sebebi emperyalizmin yery\u00fcz\u00fcnden art\u0131-de\u011fer dev\u015firdi\u011fi s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc kanallar\u0131n\u0131n t\u0131kanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ekonomi politi\u011fin emperyalizm ve art\u0131-de\u011fer tahlilini rehber edinen bu makale, \u00c7in\u2019in \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f d\u00fcnya sistemindeki konumunu ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktas\u0131 alarak \u00c7in, K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney ve \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f d\u00fcnya sisteminin krizi aras\u0131ndaki organik ba\u011f\u0131 sistematik bi\u00e7imde masaya yat\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yaz\u0131n\u0131n \u0130kinci b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde, \u00c7in\u2019in geli\u015fimi ve d\u00fcnya sisteminin evrimi \u00fczerine uluslararas\u0131 ve \u00c7in i\u00e7i literat\u00fcrdeki kuramsal tezler ele\u015ftirel bir s\u00fczge\u00e7ten ge\u00e7irilmektedir. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerde s\u0131ras\u0131yla do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri \u00fczerinden ampirik incelemeler y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclerek \u00c7in\u2019in konumu tahlil edilmektedir. Be\u015finci b\u00f6l\u00fcmde, 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren \u00c7in, K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney ve merkez kapitalist \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki art\u0131-de\u011fer transferinin seyri incelenmekte ve sistem krizinin k\u00f6k nedenleri ayd\u0131nlat\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Son b\u00f6l\u00fcmde ise ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n teorik ve pratik bilan\u00e7osu \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

II. Mevcut Tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n Ele\u015ftirel Bir De\u011ferlendirmesi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geni\u015f anlam\u0131yla Marksist ekonomi politik \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, \u00c7in ile d\u00fcnya sistemi ili\u015fkisini ele alan mevcut literat\u00fcr esas itibar\u0131yla iki temel teorik soru etraf\u0131nda d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcmlenmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Birinci soru, \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fcnya sistemindeki nesnel konumu, bilhassa Bat\u0131 ve K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney \u00fclkeleriyle kurdu\u011fu ili\u015fkinin niteli\u011fidir<\/strong>. \u00c7in; devasa iktisadi c\u00fcssesi, cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 kudreti, tavizsiz ulusal egemenli\u011fi ve tam ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla, g\u00f6reli olarak geri kalm\u0131\u015f ve kapsaml\u0131 milli g\u00fcc\u00fc zay\u0131f K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney \u00fclkelerinden k\u00f6kl\u00fc bi\u00e7imde ayr\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Baz\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar bu yap\u0131sal farkl\u0131l\u0131ktan yola \u00e7\u0131karak \u00c7in\u2019in sistemin yeni bir merkez \u00fclkesi haline gelebilece\u011fini, yani bir emperyalistle\u015fme e\u011filimi ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia ederken, di\u011fer bir kesim bu tezi kesin bir dille reddetmektedir. Yukar\u0131da vurguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere ekonomi politik a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ayr\u0131m\u0131n turnusol k\u00e2\u011f\u0131d\u0131, ne bir \u00fclkenin mutlak ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ne de h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin Bat\u0131 ile kurdu\u011fu diplomatik ili\u015fkilerin mahiyetidir; as\u0131l belirleyici \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct, o \u00fclkenin d\u00fcnya halklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funa boyunduruk vuran ve onlar\u0131n art\u0131-eme\u011fini s\u00f6m\u00fcren emperyalist kul\u00fcbe dahil olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130kinci soru da ilki kadar hayatidir: \u00c7in ile ABD merkezli emperyalist d\u00fczen aras\u0131ndaki dinamik etkile\u015fimin y\u00f6n\u00fc nedir? K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte belirleyici bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak \u00c7in\u2019in geli\u015fimi, ABD merkezli d\u00fczeni tahkim mi etmi\u015ftir?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir k\u0131s\u0131m ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fcnyaya ucuz sanayi mallar\u0131 arz ederek k\u00fcresel iktisadi istikrara can suyu verdi\u011fini, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla pratikte ABD merkezli d\u00fczenin \u00f6mr\u00fcn\u00fc uzat\u0131p onu peki\u015ftirdi\u011fini ileri s\u00fcrmektedir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m ilk bak\u0131\u015fta kimi ampirik verilerle desteklenir gibi dursa da kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ise, \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015finin ABD ve Bat\u0131 d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n tekelindeki tarihsel ayr\u0131cal\u0131klar\u0131 temelinden sarst\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ABD merkezli d\u00fczeni yap\u0131sal olarak zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunmaktad\u0131r. Bu d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc \u00e7\u00f6zmenin yeg\u00e2ne yolu emperyalist tahakk\u00fcm\u00fcn maddi zeminine d\u00f6nmektir; yani \u00c7in\u2019in kalk\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n, ABD gibi yerle\u015fik merkez \u00fclkelerin d\u00fcnya halklar\u0131ndan dev\u015firdi\u011fi toplam art\u0131-de\u011fer pastas\u0131ndaki etkisini somut verilerle ortaya koymakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tablo 1: \u00c7in ile D\u00fcnya Sistemi \u0130li\u015fkisine Dair D\u00f6rt Kuramsal Yakla\u015f\u0131m<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td>\u00c7in, ABD Merkezini G\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi <\/strong><\/td>\u00c7in, ABD Merkezini Zay\u0131flatt\u0131<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
\u00c7in\u2019in Emperyalist E\u011filimi Var<\/strong>  <\/td>\u0130mparatorluk Tezi Versiyon 1:<\/strong> Alt-Emperyalizm<\/td>\u0130mparatorluk Tezi Versiyon 2:<\/strong> Hegemonya M\u00fccadelesi ve Hegemon De\u011fi\u015fimi<\/td><\/tr>
\u00c7in\u2019in Emperyalist E\u011filimi Yok<\/strong>  <\/td>U\u015fak \/ Hizmetk\u00e2r Tezi<\/td>Emperyalist D\u00fczen Krizi<\/strong>  <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yukar\u0131daki iki soruya verilen cevaplar ekseninde mevcut literat\u00fcr d\u00f6rt temel yakla\u015f\u0131m alt\u0131nda tasnif edilebilir (bkz. Tablo 1):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Alt-Emperyalizm (\u0130mparatorluk Tezi Versiyon 1):<\/strong> \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015finin ABD merkezli emperyalist d\u00fczeni zay\u0131flatmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131 kabul edilirse, bu durum \u00c7in\u2019in emperyalist hiyerar\u015finin alt basamaklar\u0131ndaki tali bir orta\u011f\u0131 haline geldi\u011fi sonucunu do\u011furur. “Alt-emperyalizm” kavram\u0131 ilk defa Ruy Mauro Marini taraf\u0131ndan 1960\u2019lar ve 70\u2019lerin Brezilya ekonomi politi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamak \u00fczere geli\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir. Rosa Luxemburg\u2019un sermaye birikimi kuram\u0131n\u0131 referans alan Marini, emperyalizmin temelini imalat sanayisi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin ihracat\u0131nda g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Brezilya o d\u00f6nemde h\u0131zla sanayile\u015fmekte ve yo\u011fun bi\u00e7imde mamul madde ihra\u00e7 etmekteydi; ancak sanayisi Bat\u0131l\u0131 geli\u015fmi\u015f metropollerle rekabet edebilecek d\u00fczeyde de\u011fildi. Marini, Brezilya\u2019n\u0131n bu ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 sanayile\u015fme modelini “alt-emperyalizm” olarak adland\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r [8].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ne var ki bu teorik \u00e7er\u00e7eve metodolojik a\u00e7\u0131dan sakatt\u0131r; zira sanayi mal\u0131 ihracat\u0131 \u00e7oktan emperyalist merkezlerin tekelinden \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Sanayile\u015fen bir K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney \u00fclkesini s\u0131rf mamul madde ihra\u00e7 ediyor diye “alt-emperyalist” ilan etmek, emperyalizm kavram\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7ini bo\u015falt\u0131p a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 genelle\u015ftirilmesine yol a\u00e7makta ve emperyalizmin \u00f6z\u00fc olan d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda art\u0131-de\u011fer gasp\u0131n\u0131<\/em> perdelemektedir [9].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde G\u00fcney Afrikal\u0131 akademisyen Patrick Bond,<\/strong> bu kavram\u0131 \u00c7in ve K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 kullananlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda gelmektedir. Patrick<\/strong> Bond, BRICS \u00fczerine \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda, \u00c7in dahil bu \u00fclkelerin kurdu\u011fu yeni uluslararas\u0131 finansal mekanizmalar\u0131n “alt-emperyalist” bir karaktere sahip oldu\u011funu savunmakta; \u00fcstelik bu kurumlar\u0131n emperyalist finans kapitali sarsmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bilakis Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n finansal hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden \u00fcreterek tahkim etti\u011fini iddia etmektedir [10].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Hegemonya M\u00fccadelesi ve Hegemon De\u011fi\u015fimi (\u0130mparatorluk Tezi Versiyon 2):<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u015eayet bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019in emperyalist bir do\u011frultuda ilerledi\u011fini ve y\u00fckseli\u015finin mevcut d\u00fcnya d\u00fczenini tehdit etti\u011fini varsayarsa, varaca\u011f\u0131 mant\u0131ksal sonu\u00e7, \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015finin ABD \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki Bat\u0131 ile giri\u015filen amans\u0131z bir k\u00fcresel hegemonya kavgas\u0131 oldu\u011fudur. Bu kavgan\u0131n galibi kim olursa olsun, sonu\u00e7 yaln\u0131zca bir emperyalist hegemonyan\u0131n yerini bir ba\u015fka emperyalist hegemonun  almas\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m Bat\u0131 akademisinde ve strateji \u00e7evrelerinde olduk\u00e7a yayg\u0131nd\u0131r; nitekim yukar\u0131da zikredilen Miran ve Sullivan\u2019\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019i do\u011frudan has\u0131m belleyen tezleri bu zihniyetin bir tezah\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler teorisyeni John J. Mearsheimer, palazlanan bir \u00c7in\u2019in her sahada ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak ABD\u2019ye meydan okuyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu has\u0131ml\u0131\u011f\u0131n yap\u0131sal oldu\u011funu ve hi\u00e7bir diplomatik manevrayla bertaraf edilemeyece\u011fini savunmaktad\u0131r [11]. Mearsheimer bunu “ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz has\u0131ml\u0131k” ve “b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 siyasetinin trajedisi” olarak resmeder. Benzer \u015fekilde, “Tukidides Tuza\u011f\u0131” kavramsalla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131yla \u00fcnlenen ve geni\u015f kitleleri etkileyen Graham Allison da y\u00fckselen bir g\u00fcc\u00fcn yerle\u015fik hegemon i\u00e7in olu\u015fturdu\u011fu tehdit ve b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hususunda temelde ayn\u0131 kuramsal \u00e7izgiyi takip etmektedir [12].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. U\u015fak \/ Hizmetk\u00e2r Tezi:<\/strong> \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir grup ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 ise \u00c7in\u2019in hegemonik veya emperyalist bir nitelik ta\u015f\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmekle birlikte, y\u00fckseli\u015finin mevcut emperyalist sistemin bekas\u0131na ve istikrar\u0131na hizmet etti\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrmektedir. S\u00f6zgelimi sosyolog Ho-fung Hung, New Left Review<\/em> dergisinde yay\u0131mlanan makalesinde, \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015finin ABD hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131 sarsamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu s\u00fcrecin tarihsel Do\u011fu Asya kalk\u0131nma modelinin devasa boyutlarda tekrarlanmas\u0131ndan ibaret oldu\u011funu iddia etmi\u015ftir.<\/strong> \u00c7in\u2019in sundu\u011fu ucuz meta ve ucuz emek ordusu ABD hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131n can simidi olmu\u015f; ABD ise \u00c7in\u2019in devasa s\u0131nai \u00fcretimini masseden “nihai t\u00fcketici” rol\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcstlenmi\u015ftir [13]. Bu analizde \u00c7in ile ABD aras\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k oldu\u011fu  ancak yap\u0131sal bak\u0131mdan e\u015fitsiz bir hiyerar\u015fi kurgulanmakta; \u00c7in ise bu tahakk\u00fcm ili\u015fkisinde ABD\u2019nin bir t\u00fcr “k\u00e2hyas\u0131” (head servant<\/em>) derekesine indirilmektedir.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bahsi ge\u00e7en bu \u00fc\u00e7 ana ak\u0131m yakla\u015f\u0131m, uluslararas\u0131 akademik \u00e7evrelerde derin bir etkiye sahiptir ve farkl\u0131 siyasi yelpazeleri b\u00fcnyesinde bar\u0131nd\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. Ne var ki bu kuramsal tezlerin metodolojik ve ampirik zaaflar\u0131 son derece barizdir:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7in\u2019i “alt-emperyalist” ilan edenler ne teorik ne de ampirik a\u00e7\u0131dan ikna edici kan\u0131tlar sunabilmektedir;<\/strong> b\u00fcy\u00fck bir devletin iktisadi geli\u015fmesini kendili\u011finden emperyalizmle, uluslararas\u0131 diplomatik n\u00fcfuzunu ise do\u011frudan hegemonya aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla bir tutmaktad\u0131rlar. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla varmak istedikleri “emperyalizm” yarg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 kan\u0131tlanmas\u0131 gereken bir sav de\u011fil, ba\u015ftan do\u011fru kabul edilen bir \u00f6nc\u00fcl olarak kullanmakta ve d\u00fcnya sistemindeki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmleri bilimsel temelde kavramaktan uzak kalmaktad\u0131rlar [14]. \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015finin ABD ve Bat\u0131 hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131 tehdit etmeyece\u011fini savunan u\u015fak tezi savunucular\u0131 ise bir yandan \u00c7in\u2019in pek \u00e7ok stratejik sanayide Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 yakalay\u0131p geride b\u0131rakmas\u0131 olgusunu a\u00e7\u0131klayamamakta, di\u011fer yandan Bat\u0131\u2019daki egemen siyasi ve iktisadi se\u00e7kinlerin \u00c7in kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kap\u0131ld\u0131klar\u0131 kolektif histeri ve varolu\u015fsal kayg\u0131y\u0131 izah edememektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Emperyalist D\u00fczen Krizi: Bizim g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz ise literat\u00fcrde daha az temsil edilen d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 savunmaktad\u0131r: \u00c7in emperyalist bir devlet de\u011fildir; ancak y\u00fckseli\u015fi, ABD merkezli emperyalist d\u00fczeni temellerinden sarsmaktad\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00fcnya sistemi kuram\u0131n\u0131n se\u00e7kin isimlerinden Giovanni Arrighi\u2019nin olgunluk d\u00f6nemi eseri Adam Smith Pekin\u2019de<\/em>, k\u0131smen bu \u00e7izgide de\u011ferlendirilebilir [15<\/strong>]. Arrighi, Smith\u2019in \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc piyasa ekonomisi modeli ile daha sonra tarih sahnesine \u00e7\u0131kan kapitalizmi birbirinden \u00f6zenle ay\u0131rm\u0131\u015f; \u00c7in\u2019in kalk\u0131nma tecr\u00fcbesinin Smith\u2019in betimledi\u011fi piyasa ekonomisine \u00e7ok daha yak\u0131n durdu\u011funu ve \u00f6zg\u00fcn bir yol \u00e7izdi\u011fini savunmu\u015ftur. Arrighi\u2019ye g\u00f6re ABD\u2019nin gerilemesi ve Do\u011fu Asya\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahlan\u0131\u015f\u0131yla birlikte d\u00fcnya, \u00e7ok daha kadim ve \u00e7ok merkezli bir k\u00fcresel dengeye do\u011fru evrilmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bununla birlikte bizim yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131m\u0131z Arrighi\u2019ninkinden y\u00f6ntemsel olarak ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131r: Arrighi\u2019nin analizi hem Marksist kuramsal \u00e7er\u00e7eveye dayanmamakta ve titiz ampirik verilerden yoksun kalmaktad\u0131r hem de “Smith\u00e7i piyasa ekonomisi”ni ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir tarihsel kategori olarak kurmas\u0131 akademik \u00e7evrelerde genel kabul g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f bir tez de\u011fildir.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, Marksist bir ekonomi politik perspektifine yaslanarak iki kuramsal soruya net yan\u0131tlar getirmektedir. Emperyalist bir d\u00fczende bir \u00fclkenin “emperyalist” nitelik kazanabilmesi i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikle d\u00fcnya \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 art\u0131-de\u011fer<\/em> gasp etme kabiliyetine sahip bir merkez \u00fclke konumuna y\u00fckselmesi \u015fartt\u0131r. Bu art\u0131-de\u011ferin transfer mekanizmalar\u0131 ise d\u0131\u015f sermaye ihrac\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131m) ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret olmak \u00fczere iki ana kanaldan y\u00fcr\u00fcr:<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1: D\u0131\u015f sermaye ihrac\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131m) <\/strong>cephesinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 art\u0131-de\u011fer gasp etmek, en az\u0131ndan sermayenin ortalama k\u00e2r haddinin \u00fczerinde bir getiri elde etmeyi gerektirir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2: D\u0131\u015f Ticaret cephesinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 art\u0131-de\u011ferin ana kayna\u011f\u0131 e\u015fitsiz m\u00fcbadeledir (unequal exchange<\/em>); yani di\u011fer \u00fclkelerle giri\u015filen ticari ili\u015fkide daha az toplumsal gerekli emek-zaman\u0131 sarf ederek kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha fazla toplumsal gerekli emek-zaman\u0131na el koymakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Makalemiz, bu kuramsal \u00e7er\u00e7eveye ve ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 ampirik verilere dayanarak s\u0131ras\u0131yla \u015fu iki temel tezi ispatlayacakt\u0131r:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. \u00c7in, d\u00fcnya sisteminde emperyalist bir konuma sahip de\u011fildir.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    1. \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fi, ABD merkezli emperyalist d\u00fczenin alt\u0131n\u0131 oymu\u015f ve bu sistemi krize s\u00fcr\u00fcklemi\u015ftir.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Art\u0131-de\u011fer ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle e\u015fitsiz m\u00fcbadele trendleri incelenerek, \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015finin mevcut d\u00fcnya sistemini neden b\u00f6ylesine k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir sars\u0131nt\u0131ya soktu\u011fu berrakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      III. \u00c7in\u2019in Sermaye \u0130hrac\u0131 ve Getirileri<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Klasik Marksist emperyalizm kuram\u0131nda sermaye ihrac\u0131 kurucu bir konuma sahiptir. Lenin, sermaye ihrac\u0131n\u0131n geri kalm\u0131\u015f co\u011frafyalarda \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek k\u00e2r oranlar\u0131 yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu sayede \u0130ngiltere, Fransa ve Almanya gibi emperyalist metropollere devasa rantlar ak\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun “d\u00fcnyadaki halklar\u0131n ve uluslar\u0131n kahir ekseriyetinin emperyalist boyunduruk alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n ve ili\u011fine kadar s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin maddi temeli” oldu\u011funu belirtmi\u015ftir<\/strong> [16]. Bu tespit kimi \u00e7evrelerde emperyalist sermayenin durmaks\u0131z\u0131n ve f\u00fctursuzca d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya akaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde y\u00fczeysel bir alg\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Oysa \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f k\u00fcresel tecr\u00fcbe g\u00f6stermektedir ki sermaye ihrac\u0131 mekanik ve kendili\u011finden i\u015fleyen bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 de\u011fildir. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n askeri ve siyasi n\u00fcfuz alanlar\u0131na b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc klasik s\u00f6m\u00fcrgecilik \u00e7a\u011f\u0131nda bir avu\u00e7 emperyalist g\u00fc\u00e7, kendi s\u00f6m\u00fcrgelerine sermaye ak\u0131tmaktan \u00e7ekinmemi\u015f olabilir; ancak s\u00f6m\u00fcrge sisteminin tarihe kar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z ulusal devletler \u00e7at\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmesiyle birlikte emperyalist b\u00fcy\u00fck tekelci sermaye, ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak bor\u00e7 geri \u00f6demede zora d\u00fc\u015fme ve kamula\u015ft\u0131rma gibi siyasi risklerle y\u00fcz y\u00fcze kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle kendini kurtarma s\u00fcresi on y\u0131llar\u0131 bulan altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 ve fahi\u015f k\u00e2rlar garanti edilemedi\u011finde zay\u0131f \u00fclkelere yabanc\u0131 sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 derhal kesilmektedir. Nitekim pek \u00e7ok K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney \u00fclkesi on y\u0131llard\u0131r d\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131m bulamamaktan k\u0131vranmakta; Bat\u0131l\u0131 finans kapitalin kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise ancak egemenli\u011fini ipotek alt\u0131na alan a\u011f\u0131r \u015fartlara boyun e\u011ferek kaynak bulabilmektedir ki bu durum ABD liderli\u011findeki Bat\u0131 finansal hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131n bizzat sacaya\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi sermaye hareketleri incelenirken somut tarihsel ba\u011flam, sermayenin nispi b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve getiri hadleri titizlikle hesaba kat\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      21. y\u00fczy\u0131la girildi\u011finde \u00c7in\u2019in s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi sermaye ihrac\u0131, i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f siyasi-ekonomik iklimden derinden etkilenen belirgin d\u00f6nemsel dalgalanmalar sergilemi\u015f<\/strong>; s\u00fcrekli ve kesintisiz bir giri\u015f ya da \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f trendi g\u00f6stermemi\u015ftir. 2000\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f sermaye ihrac\u0131nda bir s\u0131\u00e7rama ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015fsa da bu durum b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde devasa ihracat gelirlerinin ve h\u0131zla biriken d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin (ba\u015fta ABD Hazine tahvilleri olmak \u00fczere) d\u0131\u015f varl\u0131klara yat\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131ndan ileri gelmi\u015ftir. 2008 k\u00fcresel krizinin patlak vermesiyle birlikte d\u0131\u015f talepteki daralma ve uluslararas\u0131 finans piyasalar\u0131ndaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 dalgalanmalar neticesinde finans sermaye hesab\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 h\u0131z kesmi\u015ftir. 2018\u2019de Trump\u2019\u0131n Beyaz Saray\u2019a \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 topyek\u00fbn ticaret sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015flatmas\u0131yla beraber \u00c7in\u2019den sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yeniden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir ivme kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u00d6ncelikle saptanmas\u0131 gereken nesnel ger\u00e7ek, \u00c7in\u2019in k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan elde etti\u011fi genel kazan\u00e7 haddinin son derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fudur. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana \u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n getiri oran\u0131 ile yabanc\u0131 sermayenin \u00c7in\u2019deki yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan elde etti\u011fi getiri oran\u0131 yatay ve dar bir bantta seyretmi\u015ftir; \u00c7in\u2019in yabanc\u0131 sermaye ihrac\u0131ndan d\u0131\u015f getiri haddi, yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019den elde etti\u011fi getirinin istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde gerisinde kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (bkz. \u015eekil 1) [17].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Mutlak mebla\u011flar itibar\u0131yla \u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyadaki sermaye ihrac\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m varl\u0131klar\u0131ndan elde etti\u011fi getiri, yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00c7in pazar\u0131ndan sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 net k\u00e2r\u0131n daima fersah fersah alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Nitekim 2020 ile 2024 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yabanc\u0131 sermayenin lehine olan bu getiri makas\u0131, her y\u0131l net 100 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi sermaye ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde reel ekonomiyi do\u011frudan \u015fekillendiren do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar mercek alt\u0131na al\u0131nacakt\u0131r. \u00c7e\u015fitli uluslararas\u0131 sermaye hareketleri aras\u0131nda iktisadi kalk\u0131nmay\u0131 ve \u00fcretim g\u00fc\u00e7lerini en dolays\u0131z bi\u00e7imde tetikleyen kalem do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlard\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019de do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar bilan\u00e7osu uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r kesintisiz bi\u00e7imde net sermaye giri\u015fi<\/em> vermektedir; yani uluslararas\u0131 sermayenin \u00c7in\u2019e yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, \u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyaya ihra\u00e7 etti\u011fi do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlardan daima fazla olmu\u015ftur. Di\u011fer bir deyi\u015fle \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik mucizesi, d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya sermaye ihra\u00e7 ederek art\u0131-de\u011fer elde etme mekanizmas\u0131na dayanmamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u00c7in\u2019in do\u011frudan sermaye ihrac\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya \u00fclkelerindeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na milli gelir s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmas\u0131 esas al\u0131narak incelenmi\u015ftir. Bu y\u00f6ntemin tercih edilmesinin ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedenleri \u015funlard\u0131r:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      1. \u00dclkelerin Resmi d\u00f6viz rezervleri hari\u00e7 tutuldu\u011funda, do\u011frudan sermaye ihrac\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f varl\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7erisindeki en hacimli kalemi olu\u015fturmakta ve \u00c7in\u2019in portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 (s\u0131cak para hareketleri) fersah fersah geride b\u0131rakmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
          \n
        1. Portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve spek\u00fclatif s\u0131cak para gibi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 dalgal\u0131, kriz anlar\u0131nda derhal ka\u00e7an fonlar\u0131n aksine do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 do\u011frudan reel \u00fcretime y\u00f6nelmekte; uzun vadeli, kal\u0131c\u0131, yap\u0131sal ve istihdam yarat\u0131c\u0131 nitelik ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
            \n
          1. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 \u00fclkeleri ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen Gayrisafi Milli Gelire (GNI) g\u00f6re d\u00f6rt gelir grubuna ay\u0131rmaktad\u0131r; ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na milli gelir GS\u0130YH ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na GNI, bir \u00fclkenin k\u00fcresel art\u0131-de\u011fer b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcnde i\u015fgal etti\u011fi ger\u00e7ek iktisadi basama\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok daha berrak bi\u00e7imde yans\u0131t\u0131r [18].<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
            \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

            Tablo 2, 2016\u20132024 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan sermaye ihrac\u0131n\u0131n hedef \u00fclkelerin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplam do\u011frudan sermaye giri\u015fleri i\u00e7erisindeki pay\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkelere d\u00f6n\u00fck do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem bu \u00fclkelerin \u00e7ekti\u011fi toplam d\u0131\u015f sermayenin %20\u2019sini a\u015farak y\u00fcksek bir e\u015fi\u011fe ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f, 2018 sonras\u0131nda ise kademeli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine girmi\u015ftir. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 itibar\u0131yla \u00c7in\u2019in t\u00fcm 4 gelir grubunundan d\u00fczeylerindeki \u00fclkelere yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m ak\u0131mlar\u0131, o \u00fclkelerin \u00e7ekti\u011fi toplam do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ortalama %5\u2019i civar\u0131ndad\u0131r.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Tablo 2: 2024 Y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in ve ABD\u2019nin Do\u011frudan D\u0131\u015f Yat\u0131r\u0131m Stokunun Hedef \u00dclkelerin Toplam Yat\u0131r\u0131m Stokundaki Pay\u0131 (Gelir D\u00fczeyine G\u00f6re)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Hedef \u00dclke Grubu (Gelir D\u00fczeyi)<\/strong><\/td>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Gelir<\/strong><\/td>Orta-D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Gelir<\/strong><\/td>Orta-Y\u00fcksek Gelir<\/strong><\/td>Y\u00fcksek Gelir<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
            \u00c7in D\u0131\u015f Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131<\/strong>  <\/td>%5,7<\/td>%4,2<\/td>%1,3<\/td>%2,5<\/td><\/tr>
            ABD D\u0131\u015f Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131<\/strong>  <\/td>%0,2<\/td>%5,0<\/td>%6,2<\/td>%23,3<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

            Not: \u00c7in \/ ABD\u2019nin belirli bir gelir grubundaki \u00fclkelere do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m stokunun pay\u0131 = \u0130lgili \u00fclkenin o gelir grubundaki do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m stoku \/ O gelir grubundaki t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerin \u00e7ekti\u011fi k\u00fcm\u00fclatif do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m stoku.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Veri Kayna\u011f\u0131: \u00c7in Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Ulusal \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu, SAFE, 2024 Y\u0131l\u0131 \u00c7in D\u0131\u015f Do\u011frudan Yat\u0131r\u0131m \u0130statistik B\u00fclteni, Ek Tablo 2; ABD Ekonomik Analiz B\u00fcrosu (BEA).<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n uzun vadeli birikim etkisi ve m\u00fclkiyet yap\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u0131\u015f sermaye ak\u0131m\u0131 verilerinden ziyade bir \u00fclkedeki toplam d\u0131\u015f sermaye stoku rakam\u0131 <\/strong>\u00e7ok daha belirleyicidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            UNCTAD BM veri taban\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f do\u011frudan sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m stokunun ev sahibi \u00fclkelerdeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli, orta-d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli, orta-y\u00fcksek gelirli ve y\u00fcksek gelirli \u00fclkeler hiyerar\u015fisinde yukar\u0131dan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru d\u00fczg\u00fcn bir ini\u015f sergilemektedir. ABD\u2019nin sermaye stoku ise gelir d\u00fczeyine paralel olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dan yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru tam tersi bir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131k son derece \u00f6\u011freticidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Tablo 2\u2019de ortaya kondu\u011fu \u00fczere \u00c7in; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkeler haricindeki t\u00fcm di\u011fer 3 \u00fclke gruplar\u0131nda %5\u2019in alt\u0131nda bir paya sahiptir;<\/strong> d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkelerdeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 biraz daha y\u00fcksek olsa da %6 s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 a\u015famamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Buna mukabil ABD; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkeler d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki t\u00fcm gelir gruplar\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in kat kat \u00fczerinde bir paya sahiptir. ABD sermayesi, bilhassa y\u00fcksek gelirli geli\u015fmi\u015f kapitalist metropollerdeki toplam yabanc\u0131 sermaye stokunun neredeyse d\u00f6rtte birini (%23,3) tek ba\u015f\u0131na elinde tutmaktad\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ABD finans sermayesi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli en yoksul \u00fclkelere \u00fcretken sermaye aktarmaktan neredeyse tamamen ka\u00e7\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (%0,2).<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            B\u00fct\u00fcn bu ampirik tablo \u015funu ortaya koymaktad\u0131r: \u00c7in\u2019in s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi sermaye hareketleri kendisine fahi\u015f k\u00e2rlar sa\u011flamamakta, d\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n getiri oran\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019e giren yabanc\u0131 sermayenin \u00c7in pazar\u0131ndaki k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daima gerisinde seyretmektedir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00c7in\u2019in sermaye ihrac\u0131 yoluyla yery\u00fcz\u00fcnden a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 art\u0131-de\u011fer gasp etti\u011fini iddia etmek ampirik temelden yoksundur. Do\u011frudan d\u0131\u015f sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 cephesinde \u00c7in\u2019in \u00fcretken sermaye ihrac\u0131 belirli bir b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011fe ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olsa da \u00c7in\u2019in k\u00fcresel toplam sermaye ihrac\u0131 i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 halen son derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkelere d\u00f6n\u00fck \u00fcretken d\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ABD ile k\u0131yaslanamayacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131, bir yandan azami k\u00e2r pe\u015finde ko\u015fan tekelci Bat\u0131 sermayesinin bu co\u011frafyalar\u0131 tarihsel olarak kaderine terk etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, di\u011fer yandan \u00c7in\u2019in “Ku\u015fak ve Yol” giri\u015fimi kapsam\u0131nda K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019in kalk\u0131nmas\u0131na somut ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kaynak aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kan\u0131tlamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Elbette \u00c7in\u2019in bu yat\u0131r\u0131m projelerinin hi\u00e7bir eksikli\u011fi bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddia edilemez; ancak yukar\u0131daki veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkelere d\u00f6n\u00fck do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 emperyalist bir sermaye ihrac\u0131 olarak damgalanamaz. Aksine bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019in \u00fcretici g\u00fc\u00e7lerini geli\u015ftiren somut bir destek ve Bat\u0131 finansal vesayetine kar\u015f\u0131 paha bi\u00e7ilmez bir alternatif finansman kanal\u0131 olarak kavranmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            IV. D\u0131\u015f Ticaret ve E\u015fitsiz M\u00fcbadele Ger\u00e7e\u011fi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Kapitalist d\u00fcnya sisteminde \u00fclkeler; sanayi altyap\u0131s\u0131, k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki fiyat tekeli kurma g\u00fcc\u00fc ve uluslararas\u0131 para sistemindeki y\u00fcksek hiyerar\u015fik konumlar\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan derin e\u015fitsizlikler bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131r. Bu yap\u0131sal \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k nedeniyle az say\u0131daki<\/strong> geli\u015fmi\u015f kapitalist merkez<\/strong> \u00fclke, daha az toplumsal gerekli emek-zaman\u0131 sarf ederek di\u011fer \u00e7evre \u00fclkelerin \u00e7ok daha fazla toplumsal gerekli emek-zaman\u0131na el koyabilmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Dolar\u0131n d\u00fcnya paras\u0131 hegemonyas\u0131, bu yap\u0131sal s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 daha da tahkim etmektedir. Bu durum, geli\u015fmi\u015f kapitalist merkez \u00fclkelerin uluslararas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim yani d\u0131\u015f ticaret  s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinde \u00e7evre \u00fclkelerin art\u0131-eme\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z el koymalar\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lmakta ve emek-zaman a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir e\u015fitsiz m\u00fcbadele (unequal exchange<\/em>) d\u00fczeni yaratmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Not: Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler UNCTAD’\u0131n 2025 de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi \u00f6ncesindeki temel istatistiksel \u00e7er\u00e7evesi, d\u00fcnyay\u0131 iki ana gruba ay\u0131r\u0131yordu: Geli\u015fmi\u015f Ekonomiler ve Geli\u015fmekte Olan Ekonomiler. Geli\u015fmi\u015f Ekonomiler: Bu grup; Britanya, Avustralya, Kanada, Japonya, Yeni Zelanda, Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ve Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeleri kaps\u0131yordu. Geli\u015fmekte Olan Ekonomiler: Bu grup, gelir d\u00fczeyine dayal\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 alt kategoriye ayr\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu sistem, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131na kadar y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Y\u00fcksek Gelirli Geli\u015fmekte Olan Ekonomiler: Bu grup; \u00c7in, Brezilya, \u015eili, Meksika ve T\u00fcrkiye gibi \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7eriyordu. Bu grup d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda Orta Gelirli Geli\u015fmekte Olan Ekonomiler ve  D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Gelirli Geli\u015fmekte Olan Ekonomiler vard\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilere y\u00f6nelik bu gelir temelli alt gruplar\u0131n, Mart 2025 itibar\u0131yla resmen kullan\u0131mdan kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmeliyiz.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            D\u0131\u015f ticarette e\u015fitsiz m\u00fcbadele, emperyalist s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131ndaki kilit kavramd\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Bu yaz\u0131m\u0131z inceleme s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 emek-zaman\u0131 d\u00fczeyindeki e\u015fitsiz m\u00fcbadele ve art\u0131-emek transferiyle s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmaktad\u0131r [19].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            D\u0131\u015f ticaretteki e\u015fitsiz m\u00fcbadelenin derecesi, “emek ticaret hadleri” (labor terms of trade<\/em>) y\u00f6ntemiyle somut olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Somut bir \u00f6rnek vermek gerekirse: \u00c7in\u2019in 1000 dolar de\u011ferinde tekstil \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc ihra\u00e7 edip kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in 1000 dolar de\u011ferinde ileri teknoloji elektronik mal ithal etti\u011fini varsayal\u0131m.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u00c7in Gibi Geli\u015fmekte Olan \u00dclkelerin Uluslararas\u0131 D\u0131\u015f Ticarette Kar\u015f\u0131 Kar\u015f\u0131ya Kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cZorunlu\u201d Kay\u0131p<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

             Piyasa fiyat\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015fardan g\u00f6r\u00fcnen nominal de\u011fer a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ticari al\u0131\u015fveri\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fte tam bir e\u015fde\u011ferlerin m\u00fcbadelesidir. Ancak bu metalar\u0131n b\u00fcnyesinde bulunan toplumsal gerekli emek-zaman\u0131 kesinlikle e\u015fit de\u011fildir.<\/strong> \u00c7in\u2019in ihra\u00e7 etti\u011fi 1000 dolarl\u0131k tekstil \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc 100 saatlik toplumsal gerekli emek i\u00e7erirken, \u00c7in taraf\u0131ndan ithal edilen 1000 dolarl\u0131k elektronik cihaz yaln\u0131zca 50 saatlik emek \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc olabilir. Bu tabloda \u00c7in\u2019in emek ticaret haddi; yabanc\u0131 bir \u00fclkenin 50 saatlik eme\u011fini sat\u0131n alabilmek i\u00e7in kendi 100 saatlik eme\u011fini feda etmesi anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Yani \u00c7in, bu durumda Pazarda e\u015f de\u011ferlerin m\u00fcbadelesi perdesi alt\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131 tarafa fiilen pratikte 50 saatlik kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z toplumsal gerekli emek transfer etmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmam\u0131zda, \u00fclkelerin ortalama y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcreleri ile ikili ticaret ak\u0131mlar\u0131 verileri birle\u015ftirilerek d\u00fcnya ekonomilerinin \u00c7in ile olan emek ticaret hadleri ampirik olarak hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r [20].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

            \u015eekil 3, \u0130ncelenen d\u00f6nem boyunca d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli ve orta-d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkelerin \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 ortalama emek ticaret hadlerinin 1\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini ve 2008\u20132022 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda belirgin bi\u00e7imde t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

             Bu tablo, s\u00f6z konusu iki grup \u00fclkenin (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkeler ve orta-alt gelirli \u00fclkeler)<\/strong>  \u00c7in ile mal ticaretinde kesintisiz bir bi\u00e7imde emek-zaman\u0131 e\u015fitsiz m\u00fcbadelesine maruz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc makas\u0131n\u0131n son yirmi y\u0131lda a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Orta-y\u00fcksek gelirli \u00fclkelerin ticaret hadleri ise genel olarak k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fme e\u011filimi g\u00f6stererek 2012\u20132013 civar\u0131nda 1 e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015fm\u0131\u015f, ancak 2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kalarak \u00c7in ile ticari al\u0131\u015fveri\u015fler g\u00f6rece dengeli bir m\u00fcbadele zemininde kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fcksek gelirli geli\u015fmi\u015f kapitalist metropollere kar\u015f\u0131 mal sat\u0131\u015f\u0131nda emek ticaret hadleri istikrarl\u0131 bir iyile\u015fme kaydetse de yap\u0131sal e\u015fitsizlik devam etmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            1995 y\u0131l\u0131nda geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 emek ticaret haddi 0,081 d\u00fczeyindeydi; yani \u00c7in, bu \u00fclkelerden 1 saatlik emek i\u00e7eren mal alabilmek i\u00e7in tam 12 saatlik toplumsal gerekli emek sarf etmek zorundayd\u0131<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            2022 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde bu oran %260,5\u2019lik muazzam bir art\u0131\u015fla 0,292\u2019ye y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. Ne var ki mutlak d\u00fczey a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00c7in, geli\u015fmi\u015f metropollerin 1 saatlik eme\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k halen yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,5 saatlik kendi eme\u011fini takas etmek mecburiyetindedir.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

             Bu ampirik ger\u00e7ek, \u00c7in ile y\u00fcksek gelirli \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda halen a\u011f\u0131r bir e\u015fitsiz m\u00fcbadele ve emek s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcs\u00fc mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fledi\u011fini su g\u00f6t\u00fcrmez bi\u00e7imde kan\u0131tlamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Ufku ikili ili\u015fkilerin \u00f6tesine ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131p k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fe geni\u015fletti\u011fimizde, emek ticaret hadlerindeki bu iyile\u015fmenin \u00c7in\u2019i bir “merkez \u00fclke” ya da “y\u00fckselen emperyalist g\u00fc\u00e7” olarak tan\u0131mlamaya yetmeyece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r. D\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131 baz al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in emek ticaret haddi hen\u00fcz 1 denge e\u015fi\u011fine dahi ula\u015famam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00c7in, kapitalist d\u00fcnya hiyerar\u015fisinde \u00e7evre ile merkez aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f tipik bir yar\u0131-\u00e7evre<\/em> (semi-periphery<\/em>) \u00fclkesidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

            \u015eekil 4; \u00c7in, ABD ve ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki Geli\u015fmi\u015f kapitalist G7 \u00fclkelerinin d\u00fcnyaya kar\u015f\u0131 ortalama emek ticaret hadlerini k\u0131yaslamaktad\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fcnya geneline d\u00f6n\u00fck haddi 1995\u2019teki 0,185 seviyesinden 2022\u2019de 0,900\u2019e t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Buna mukabil ABD\u2019nin haddi 1997\u2019deki 4,677 d\u00fczeyinden 2022\u2019de 5,907\u2019ye f\u0131rlam\u0131\u015f; \u00f6zellikle 2020 pandemisinin ard\u0131ndan ABD belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama kaydetmi\u015ftir. \u00c7in ile ABD\u2019nin ticaret hadleri aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urum 1997\u2019de 24,1 kattan 2022\u2019de 6,5 kata inse de aradaki yap\u0131sal s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc makas\u0131 son derece a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Burada as\u0131l dikkat \u00e7ekici olan olgu, ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmi\u015f kapitalist G7 \u00fclkelerinin hadlerinin dalgal\u0131 bir ini\u015fle 1995\u2019teki 5,455 seviyesinden 2022\u2019de 4,373\u2019e gerilemesi, yani yakla\u015f\u0131k %19,8 oran\u0131nda kan kaybetmesidir. Bu ampirik bulgu, ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki geleneksel emperyalist merkezlerin d\u00fcnya ticaretindeki e\u015fitsiz m\u00fcbadele avantajlar\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu erimenin \u00c7in\u2019in emek ticaret hadlerindeki olumlu geli\u015fme ile bir kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131k i\u00e7inde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


            V. Art\u0131-De\u011fere El Koyma ve D\u00fczen Krizi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            D\u0131\u015f ticarette Emek ticaret hadlerindeki dinamikler, d\u00fcnya sisteminde art\u0131-de\u011fer transferinin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc ve \u015fiddetini do\u011frudan yans\u0131tmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fcnya sistemindeki konumu son 25 y\u0131lda y\u00fckselmi\u015f olsa da bu kazan\u0131m \u00c7in\u2019i geli\u015fmi\u015f merkez \u00fclkeler ligine ta\u015f\u0131mam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak \u00c7in\u2019in sistemik konumundaki bu iyile\u015fme her ne kadar nicel<\/em> bir de\u011fi\u015fim olsa da \u00c7in\u2019in devasa  iktisadi b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sebebiyle \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f d\u00fcnya sistemi ve emperyalist d\u00fczen \u00fczerinde niteliksel<\/em> bir alt\u00fcst olu\u015f yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Not koyal\u0131m ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck ile kalite ayn\u0131 \u015feyler de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

             So\u011fuk Sava\u015f sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde (1991) emperyalist metropoller, K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019den kesintisiz bi\u00e7imde artan bir a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 art\u0131-de\u011fer el koymaya al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f; diplomatik kurallardan askeri m\u00fcdahalelere uzanan t\u00fcm tekelci kapitalist emperyalist \u00fcstyap\u0131y\u0131 bu s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc taban\u0131 \u00fczerine oturtmu\u015ftu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00c7in ve K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019in d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bu iktisadi zemin, emperyalist d\u00fczenin varolu\u015fsal krizini tetiklemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fcnya sisteminde ABD ve di\u011fer merkez kapitalist devletlerin d\u0131\u015f ticaret kanal\u0131yla d\u00fcnya halklar\u0131ndan el koydu\u011fu a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 art\u0131-de\u011fer, nesnel olarak bir emperyalist hara\u00e7<\/strong> mahiyetindedir. E\u015fitsiz m\u00fcbadele hesaplamalar\u0131 zaviyesinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu hara\u00e7; taraflar aras\u0131ndaki ticaret hacmi ile her bir birim mala sinmi\u015f toplumsal gerekli emek-zaman\u0131 fark\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7arp\u0131m\u0131na e\u015fittir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Hesaplamalar\u0131m\u0131za g\u00f6re 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ilk on y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in, Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan, T\u00fcrkiye ve Meksika<\/strong> gibi ba\u015fl\u0131ca K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney ekonomilerinden d\u0131\u015f ticaret yoluyla ABD\u2019ye transfer edilen net emek miktar\u0131 her y\u0131l katlanarak artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; nitekim bu d\u00f6nem, ABD merkezli k\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin “alt\u0131n \u00e7a\u011f\u0131”d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u00c7in \u00f6rne\u011fini ele al\u0131rsak: 1995 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019ye sundu\u011fu net toplumsal gerekli emek transferi 26 milyar saat iken, 2007 y\u0131l\u0131nda tarihi zirvesine ula\u015farak yakla\u015f\u0131k 69,2 milyar saate f\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. D\u0131\u015f ticarette b\u00f6ylesine muazzam bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z emek-zaman\u0131 ve ucuz meta ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, ABD emperyalist d\u00fczeninin maliyetlerini destekleyen temel can damar\u0131 olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Ne var ki 2008 ABD finansal krizinin patlak vermesiyle birlikte \u00c7in-ABD aras\u0131ndaki ticaret dengesi sars\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, dahas\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019in sanayi hamlesi ve teknolojik at\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ikili d\u0131\u015f ticaretteki emek ticaret hadlerini \u00c7in lehine d\u00fczeltmi\u015ftir. Bunun sonucunda \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019ye aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 net emek transferinde radikal bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7in, e\u015fitsiz m\u00fcbadele mekanizmas\u0131 sebebiyle ABD\u2019ye en \u00e7ok emek saat kapt\u0131ran ba\u015f s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc alan\u0131 olmay\u0131 halen s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de y\u0131ll\u0131k net transfer miktar\u0131 2007\u2019deki 69,2 milyar saatlik zirveden 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 41,6 milyar saate gerilemi\u015ftir. Ya\u015fanan bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, t\u00fcm K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131ndaki en ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 gerilemedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u00c7in\u2019in yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Brezilya ve Rusya da 2000\u2019lerin ilk on y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren d\u0131\u015f ticarette ABD\u2019ye aktard\u0131klar\u0131 net emek saat hacmini belirgin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azaltm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. D\u0131\u015f ticarette Hindistan ve Meksika\u2019n\u0131n ABD\u2019ye emek transferi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine ra\u011fmen \u00c7in\u2019in 2008 sonras\u0131nda musluklar\u0131 k\u0131smas\u0131, ABD\u2019nin d\u00fcnyadan dev\u015firdi\u011fi toplam net emek rant\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini fiilen durdurmu\u015f ve 2010 sonras\u0131nda ABD\u2019ye akan net k\u00fcresel eme\u011fin kayda de\u011fer bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterememesinin belirleyici nedeni olmu\u015ftur [21].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

            Bak\u0131\u015flar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ABD\u2019nin \u00f6tesine, G7\u2019nin di\u011fer geli\u015fmi\u015f kapitalist \u00fcyelerine \u00e7evirdi\u011fimizde \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f trendi \u00e7ok daha \u00e7\u0131plak hale gelmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u015eekil 5, son \u00e7eyrek as\u0131rda ABD ve di\u011fer G7 metropollerinin k\u00fcresel sistemden emdi\u011fi net emek saat transferini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            ABD, ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 krizlere ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel finansal g\u00fcc\u00fc sayesinde belirli bir s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc hacmini muhafaza edebilmi\u015fken, G7\u2019nin di\u011fer merkez geli\u015fmi\u015f kapitalist \u00fclkeleri bu denli “\u015fansl\u0131” olamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; nitekim bu \u00fclkelerin d\u00fcnyadan \u00e7ekti\u011fi net emek transferi miktar\u0131 2010 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren kesintisiz ve sert bir ini\u015fe ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde yay\u0131mlanan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmada Andrea Ricci<\/strong>, farkl\u0131 bir ekonometrik model kullanarak uluslararas\u0131 e\u015fitsiz m\u00fcbadeleyi hesaplam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Andrea Ricci\u2019nin ampirik bulgular\u0131na g\u00f6re merkez kapitalist \u00fclkelerin s\u00f6m\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc net emek transferinin y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposu 1990\u20132010 periyodunda %8\u2019in \u00fczerindeyken, 2010\u20132019 periyodunda %1,5\u2019e kadar gerilemi\u015ftir. [22]. Bu ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z ampirik tahlil, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmam\u0131z\u0131n vard\u0131\u011f\u0131 kuramsal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle do\u011frulamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Toparlarsak, \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve emek ticaret hadlerini kendi lehine d\u00fczeltmesi, ABD merkezli emperyalist d\u00fczeni varolu\u015fsal bir bunal\u0131ma s\u00fcr\u00fckleyen en temel maddi sebeptir.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

             \u00c7in mevcut uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczene do\u011frudan meydan okuma gibi \u00f6znel bir niyet ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131yor olsa bile, sahip oldu\u011fu devasa iktisadi g\u00f6vde ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalk\u0131nma h\u0131z\u0131 sebebiyle ABD ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere emperyalist metropollerin yery\u00fcz\u00fcnden a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 art\u0131-de\u011fer gasp etme kabiliyetini fiilen darbelemi\u015ftir. Yukar\u0131da vurguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere emperyalizm, d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda gasp etti\u011fi d\u0131\u015f ticaret hara\u00e7 ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131d\u0131r. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc emperyalist d\u00fczen, s\u00fcrekli artan bu hara\u00e7 mekanizmas\u0131 \u00fczerine in\u015fa edilmi\u015ftir; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu hara\u00e7 ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131 ya da dura\u011fanla\u015fmas\u0131 dahi emperyalist kapitalizmin sindiremeyece\u011fi yap\u0131sal bir kriz \u00fcretmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            VI. Sonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Bu makalede ilk olarak \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f d\u00fcnya sisteminde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan kriz belirtileri tahlil edilmi\u015f; ard\u0131ndan \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fcnya sistemi i\u00e7indeki konumu ekonomi politik analizin ampirik ara\u00e7lar\u0131yla incelenmi\u015ftir. Analiz \u015fu iki somut ger\u00e7e\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n
            1. \u00c7in\u2019in s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi sermaye ihracat\u0131 emperyalist bir nitelik ta\u015f\u0131mamakta; aksine K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney \u00fclkelerine Bat\u0131 tekelinin d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kma ve \u00fcretici g\u00fc\u00e7leri geli\u015ftiren \u00fcretken (reel) yat\u0131r\u0131m imk\u00e2nlar\u0131 sunmaktad\u0131r.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                \n
              1. D\u0131\u015f ticarette emek ticaret hadleri uzun erimde hissedilir bir iyile\u015fme g\u00f6sterse de hen\u00fcz denge noktas\u0131na ula\u015fmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; \u00c7in halen bir yar\u0131-\u00e7evre \u00fclkesidir ve emperyalist bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak tan\u0131mlanamaz.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

                Peki, \u00c7in ve di\u011fer K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney \u00fclkelerinin y\u00fckseli\u015fi ile ABD merkezli emperyalist hakimiyet aras\u0131ndaki diyalektik ili\u015fki nas\u0131l tarif edilmelidir?<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Tarihsel bir perspektiften bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, sosyalist \u00c7in ve Sovyet sonras\u0131 Kapitalist Rusya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fcnya sistemine entegre olmas\u0131, bu iki \u00fclkenin e\u015fitsiz m\u00fcbadele yoluyla sunduklar\u0131 devasa emek transferi sayesinde ABD merkezli emperyalist d\u00fczeni fevkalade g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015f ve k\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin alt\u0131n \u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ne var ki tarih, bu b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn iddia edildi\u011fi gibi bir “tarihin sonu” getirmedi\u011fini ve getiremeyece\u011fini kan\u0131tlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Zira emperyalist d\u00fczen \u00f6z\u00fc itibar\u0131yla az\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu ezdi\u011fi bir tahakk\u00fcm mekanizmas\u0131d\u0131r; b\u00f6ylesi d\u0131\u015flay\u0131c\u0131 bir mekanizma, \u00c7in gibi devasa \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir sosyalist \u00fclkeyi kendi b\u00fcnyesinde sindiremeyece\u011fi gibi, K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019in \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc sosyal ve ekonomik kalk\u0131nma talebini de asla ta\u015f\u0131yamaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Yaz\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ortaya koydu\u011fu en \u00f6zg\u00fcn kuramsal sonu\u00e7 \u015fudur: Geli\u015fmekte olan bir K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney \u00fclkesinin emperyalist d\u00fczene tehdit te\u015fkil edebilmesi i\u00e7in ille de sistem i\u00e7erisinde yeni bir emperyalist hegemonya pe\u015finde ko\u015fmas\u0131 \u015fart de\u011fildir.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Bu \u00fclkelerin kendi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z kalk\u0131nma pratikleri dahi, emperyalizmin k\u00fcresel art\u0131-de\u011fer gasp\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rarak d\u00fczeni varolu\u015fsal bir krize s\u00fcr\u00fcklemeye yeterlidir. Devasa \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir ekonomi olan \u00c7in\u2019in s\u0131\u00e7ramal\u0131 geli\u015fimi bu diyalektik hakikatin en berrak kan\u0131t\u0131d\u0131r.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Yukar\u0131daki ampirik tahlillere dayanarak uluslararas\u0131 literat\u00fcr\u00fcn uzun s\u00fcredir tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 iki can al\u0131c\u0131 soruya kesin bir yan\u0131t verilebilir:
                Birincisi, \u00c7in emperyalist de\u011fildir.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                \u0130kincisi, \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fi yerle\u015fik emperyalist d\u00fczeni temellerinden sarsmaktad\u0131r.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                \u00c7in ve K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fi, d\u00fcnyada emperyalist hakimiyetin t\u00fcm boyutlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan hedef almasa dahi a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 muazzam d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc enerjiyle mevcut d\u00fcnya sisteminin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesini imk\u00e2ns\u0131z k\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Bu tablo hem emperyalizmin kendi i\u00e7 \u00e7eli\u015fkilerinin ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bir tezah\u00fcr\u00fc hem de g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda yerle\u015fik kurallar\u0131n ve dengelerin yerle bir olmas\u0131n\u0131n nesnel maddi zeminidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Kaynak\u00e7a ve Notlar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [1] M. Ayhan K\u00f6se ve Allen Mulabdic, “Global Trade Has Nearly Flatlined. Populism is Taking a Toll on Growth,” World Bank Blogs<\/em>, https:\/\/blogs.worldbank.org\/en\/voices\/global-trade-has-nearly-flatlined-populism-taking-toll-growth<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [2] Xu Zhun, “ABD\u2019nin K\u00fcresel Strateji Uyarlamas\u0131 ve G\u00fcmr\u00fck Tarife Sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n Genel Tasar\u0131m\u0131: ABD Tarife Sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n Ekonomi Politik Bir Analizi” [\u7f8e\u56fd\u5168\u7403\u6218\u7565\u8c03\u6574\u4e0e\u5176\u5173\u7a0e\u6218\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u6784\u60f3\u2014\u2014\u7f8e\u56fd\u5173\u7a0e\u6218\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5206\u6790], New Economy<\/em> [\u65b0\u7ecf\u6d4e], Say\u0131 6, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [3] “Remarks by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Renewing American Economic Leadership at the Brookings Institution,” The White House<\/em>, https:\/\/bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov\/briefing-room\/speeches-remarks\/2023\/04\/27\/remarks-by-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-on-renewing-american-economic-leadership-at-the-brookings-institution\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [4] A.g.k.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [5] “Secretary Michael R. Pompeo Remarks at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum: \u2018Communist China and the Free World\u2019s Future\u2019,” U.S. Department of State<\/em>, https:\/\/2017-2021-translations.state.gov\/2020\/07\/23\/secretary-michael-r-pompeo-remarks-at-the-richard-nixon-presidential-library-and-museum-communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [6] V. \u0130. Lenin, Emperyalizm: Kapitalizmin En Y\u00fcksek A\u015famas\u0131 (Pop\u00fcler Bir Deneme)<\/em> (Ocak\u2013Haziran 1916), Lenin Se\u00e7me Eserler<\/em>, Cilt 2, Pekin: Halk Yay\u0131nevi, 2012 bask\u0131s\u0131, s. 578\u2013579.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [7] A.g.e.<\/em>, s. 665.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [8] Ruy Mauro Marini, “Brazilian Subimperialism,” Monthly Review<\/em>, 23(9), 1972.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [9] Rodrigo Luiz Medeiros da Silva, “Brazilian Subimperialism? Empirical Evidence against Ruy Mauro Marini\u2019s Explanatory Scheme,” Latin American Perspectives<\/em>, 49(2), 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [10] Patrick Bond, “BRICS Banking and the Debate over Sub-imperialism,” Third World Quarterly<\/em>, 37(4), 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [11] John J. Mearsheimer, “The Inevitable Rivalry: America, China, and the Tragedy of Great-Power Politics,” Foreign Affairs<\/em>, 100(6), 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [12] Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides\u2019s Trap?<\/em>, New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company, 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [13] Ho-fung Hung, “America\u2019s Head Servant? The PRC\u2019s Dilemma in the Global Crisis,” New Left Review<\/em>, 60, 2009.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [14] Minqi Li, “China: Imperialism or Semi-Periphery?”, Monthly Review<\/em>, 73(3), 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [15] Giovanni Arrighi, Adam Smith in Beijing: Lineages of the Twenty-first Century<\/em>, New York: Verso, 2007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [16] V. \u0130. Lenin, Emperyalizm: Kapitalizmin En Y\u00fcksek A\u015famas\u0131<\/em>, Se\u00e7me Eserler<\/em>, Cilt 2, s. 628.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [17] Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmadaki \u00c7in verileri yaln\u0131zca \u00c7in Ana Karas\u0131n\u0131 kapsamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [18] Somut olarak, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen Gayrisafi Milli Gelir (GNI) ile ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen GSY\u0130H aras\u0131ndaki fark, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen net fakt\u00f6r gelirini temsil eder. Bu fark \u00f6z\u00fcnde yerli \u00fcretim fakt\u00f6rlerinin yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelir elde etme kabiliyeti ile yabanc\u0131 \u00fcretim fakt\u00f6rlerinin yerli ekonomiden pay alma kabiliyeti aras\u0131ndaki farkt\u0131r ve uluslararas\u0131 fakt\u00f6r getirilerindeki e\u015fitsiz geli\u015fimi yans\u0131t\u0131r. Bkz. Zheng Jianghuai vd., “B\u00fcy\u00fck Bir Geli\u015fmekte Olan \u00dclke Olarak \u00c7in\u2019in Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 Yeni S\u0131namalar ve Yeni \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015f Yollar\u0131: Ki\u015fi Ba\u015f\u0131na GNI Odakl\u0131 Bir \u0130ktisadi Kalk\u0131nma Perspektifi” [\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u65b0\u6311\u6218\u4e0e\u65b0\u8def\u5f84\u2014\u2014\u4eba\u5747GNI\u504f\u5411\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u89c6\u89d2], Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University (Social Sciences Edition)<\/em> [\u5317\u4eac\u4ea4\u901a\u5927\u5b66\u5b66\u62a5\uff08\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7248\uff09], Say\u0131 1, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [19] Ekolojik kaynaklar\u0131n e\u015fitsiz m\u00fcbadelesine dair tart\u0131\u015fmalar i\u00e7in bkz. Jason Hickel vd., “Emperialist El Koyma Appropriation in the World Economy: Drain from the Global South Through Unequal Exchange, 1990-2015,” Global Environmental Change<\/em>, 73, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [20] Hesaplama y\u00f6ntemi i\u00e7in bkz. Li Minqi, China and the 21st Century Crisis<\/em>, Londra: Pluto Press, 2016, s. 200\u2013202. Sayfa k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131 sebebiyle emek ticaret hadleri ve net emek transferi form\u00fclleri metne dercedilmemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [21] Li Minqi\u2019nin bulgular\u0131 da ABD\u2019nin 2000\u2019lerin ilk on y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda net emek s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcs\u00fcnde gerileme ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit etmektedir: Li Minqi, China and the 21st Century Crisis<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                [22] Andrea Ricci, Uluslararas\u0131 Ticarette De\u011fer ve E\u015fitsiz M\u00fcbadele: K\u00fcresel Kapitalist S\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn Co\u011frafyas\u0131,  Value and Unequal Exchange in International Trade: The Geography of Global Capitalist Exploitation<\/em>, New York: Routledge, 2021, s. 201.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                Somut Ampirik Verilerle: \u00c7in\u2019in K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney \u00dclkelerine Sermaye \u0130hrac\u0131 ve D\u0131\u015f Ticareti Emperyalist Nitelik Ta\u015f\u0131yor Mu? \u00c7in Alt-Emperyalist Bir \u00dclke Mi? Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc D\u00fcnya Ekonomik ve Siyasi Sisteminin Krizinin En \u00d6nemli Nedeni Prof. Xu Zhun, Dr. Yan Zihao, L\u00fc Daxing, Open Times Dergisi, Temmuz 2026 Prof. Xu Zhun, halen Sun Yat-sen \u00dcniversitesi Lingnan Koleji’nde profes\u00f6r ve […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,51,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dunya-sosyalizmi","category-dunya-sosyalizmi-tr","category-sosyalist-ulkeler"],"blocksy_meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6750","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6750"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6750\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6760,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6750\/revisions\/6760"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6750"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6750"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marksizm.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6750"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}