Iranian Issue and USA in the Changing World Pattern: Iran and Turkiye Camps in the Middle East; Three Camps in the Middle East
Prof. Wu Bingbing School of Foreign Policy Studies, Peking University
May 2024
Introduction
Generally speaking, there are three camps in the Middle East: Iran and its allies, namely the Shia and pro-Iran camp, which have very close relations with Russia and are seen as a force that checks and balances the United States in the Middle East.
The pro-Muslim Brotherhood camp centered on Turkey and Qatar. And thirdly the anti-Iran and anti-Muslim Brotherhood camp formed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel.
Overall, in the Middle East, the Shia camp centered on Iran and Turkiye led the pro-Muslim Brotherhood camp supported by Qatar are more powerful than the third camp.
Any external power that wants to exert influence in the Middle East must first handle its relations with these two camps.
On May 19, Iran time, a helicopter carrying Iranian President Raisi, Foreign Minister Abdollahyan and others made a hard landing. No one on board showed signs of survival, which caused shock and speculation from all walks of life. Raisi has always been regarded as a representative of Iran’s conservatives, and his pragmatic governing style has gained a certain development space for Iran. His death not only casts a shadow on the future handover of Iranian politics, but also adds a variable to the current complex and turbulent situation in the Middle East. Under the new situation, how do we re-understand Iran ? What is the global significance of the so-called “Iran issue” ?
Iran’s significance lies not only in its energy supply capacity, but also in its strong influence on the regional order and its development potential. For more than 40 years since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the United States has been encircling it, and it has intensified it in the Trump era. Its “maximum pressure” policy is both a means and an end. It seeks either Iran to bow its head and cooperate, or Iran to cause internal unrest and regime change, and ultimately establish a geopolitical pattern in the Middle East dominated by the United States.
In the four-tier competition and three camps in the Middle East, Iran cooperated with the rising sub-national armed forces in the Middle East to ensure its own security; economically, it promoted the “resistance economy” of its manufacturing industry; and adopted a “restrained escalation” strategy in political confrontation, proving its position and capabilities in the Middle East.
The author points out that under the promotion of the United States, the complex geopolitical competition pattern in the Middle East has not reduced the security threats in the region, and countries are unable to focus on development, which in turn has exacerbated the imbalance of population growth, regional development and resource distribution, and made turmoil, contradictions and conflicts more prominent.
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